Systematic Approach to Estimate The Potential for PV Installation?

[xiaoshir]

I have read many studies using GIS estimating the surface that is available for PV installation (roof, facade, and ground) by filtering data with certain criteria (eg. natural protected area and heritage buildings are out). Based on the GIS data of solar irradiance at different locations, and with some assumptions on efficiency and performance ratio (which accounts for performance degradation affected by temperature, shading, etc), the potential amount of energy can be estimated. This is often called the technical potential.

However, does any one of you know if there is any systematic approach that takes into account the economic factors to further boil down this technical potential into a more "realistic" potential? For example, if the cost of PV is not as competitive as the conventional energy in the future, even there is surface available for installation, some installations won't be realized. Another example is that solar PV has some sort of potential "threat" to conventional utilities (eg. self consumption instead of buying electricity from the grid), and policy might be set to balance the benefits between the utilities and PV installers/owners.

Any ideas would be welcome.

[J.P.M.]

I have read many studies using GIS estimating the surface that is available for PV installation (roof, facade, and ground) by filtering data with certain criteria (eg. natural protected area and heritage buildings are out). Based on the GIS data of solar irradiance at different locations, and with some assumptions on efficiency and performance ratio (which accounts for performance degradation affected by temperature, shading, etc), the potential amount of energy can be estimated. This is often called the technical potential.

However, does any one of you know if there is any systematic approach that takes into account the economic factors to further boil down this technical potential into a more "realistic" potential? For example, if the cost of PV is not as competitive as the conventional energy in the future, even there is surface available for installation, some installations won't be realized. Another example is that solar PV has some sort of potential "threat" to conventional utilities (eg. self consumption instead of buying electricity from the grid), and policy might be set to balance the benefits between the utilities and PV installers/owners.

Any ideas would be welcome.

To the extent I can decipher your verbosity and obtuse writing style, IMO only, the open literature abounds with information of the type you may be looking for. In plain English, Google is your friend. Knock yourself out.

[sunfun]

Again, as JPM stated, you could be the most knowledgeable individual in solar, but things change over time. We are only looking at the NOW of solar. Technologies change prices change, and even weather changes. I appreciate your writing style, but here is a little saying that my dad told me, "Just because we don't know what is going to happen tomorrow, doesn't mean we stop living." We live in an ever evolving global society. The only realistic potential that you can establish is one from your own perspective. If you think a volcano will erupt and bring on a new ice age, well then, maybe solar is not going to make you excited. Maybe solar is, or is not right for you, but if you are looking for "realistic" potential, only you can find it.

[ndabunka]

I have read many studies using GIS estimating the surface that is available for PV installation...does any one of you know if there is any systematic approach that takes into account the economic factors to further boil down this technical potential into a more "realistic" potential? For example, if the cost of PV is not as competitive as the conventional energy in the future, even IF [sic] there is surface available for installation, some installations won't be realized. Another example is that solar PV has some sort of potential "threat" to conventional utilities (eg. self consumption instead of buying electricity from the grid), and policy might be set to balance the benefits between the utilities and PV installers/owners.

Any ideas would be welcome.

It appears that you have left out a critical word in your primary inquiry (which is odd as you DID use it in your set up a couple of times)...
IF a frog had wings it wouldn't bump it's but when it jumped but... frogs don't have wings so your premise is folly.
Since humans do not have the ability to see into the future....well

[J.P.M.]

Again, as JPM stated, you could be the most knowledgeable individual in solar, but things change over time. We are only looking at the NOW of solar. Technologies change prices change, and even weather changes. I appreciate your writing style, but here is a little saying that my dad told me, "Just because we don't know what is going to happen tomorrow, doesn't mean we stop living." We live in an ever evolving global society. The only realistic potential that you can establish is one from your own perspective. If you think a volcano will erupt and bring on a new ice age, well then, maybe solar is not going to make you excited. Maybe solar is, or is not right for you, but if you are looking for "realistic" potential, only you can find it.

To be clear and avoid possible misrepresentation, I didn't intend my reference to what amounts to what I consider circumlocution by the OP to be interpreted as a comment on knowledge in any form. Nor did I have any particular relative temporal reference in mind.

What I wrote was to suggest the OP see what's available for a few mouse clicks and get some self help. I believe the OP may benefit from acquiring information and thus perhaps some knowledge about the basics of solar resource assessment and the availability of the solar resource, both of which are very readily available in the open literature. No more.

[sensij]

One systematic approach used by the CPUC to evaluate solar penetration accounting for a few variables (including electric rates, rate structure, cost of PV) has been presented in a "Public Tool", described and accessible here:

http://www.cpuc.ca.gov/PUC/energy/DistGen/NEMWorkShop04232014.htm

It is being used as the foundation for the NEM 2.0 proposals, and while some parties have objected to some of the built in assumptions, no one involved in the proceeding seems to have outright rejected the tool completely.