Enphase earning 11/3 and SolarEdge 11/4

[solarz]

From today Enphase earnings, the company forecasts this quarter revenue quite low vs last quarter as they decide on aggressive pricing. I would hope other competitive response the same. Let wait for SolarEdge forecast tomorrow.
Is it translate to cheaper solar installation cost ? Should we see the $3/watt barrier will be broken this quarter (Nov-Jan) ?

[Willaby]

From today Enphase earnings, the company forecasts this quarter revenue quite low vs last quarter as they decide on aggressive pricing. I would hope other competitive response the same. Let wait for SolarEdge forecast tomorrow.
Is it translate to cheaper solar installation cost ? Should we see the $3/watt barrier will be broken this quarter (Nov-Jan) ?

For the $3/watt barrier, I'd say likely next quarter, after the end of year rush, then, for us with SDG&E, there is the 5% cap rush too.

As far as these companies for investments, I just don't see it for anything less than high-risk money. Customers don't replace their products for many years, they are very durable, but still there is a warranty liability. There's no new efficiency breakthroughs that could be material. I'm not even sure there is much in the way of patent protection, (SE Optimizers maybe?). Then there is the unpredictability of tax incentives, kwh rates, NEM,etc. I'd say they're about as much a commodity as a washing machine, but at least those get more efficient and manufacturers manage to add a style/fashion component. These two companies are simply not diversified either. LG's panel/inverter combo could gain traction and knock them both out.

Solar Edge just reported a nice earnings & revenue beat, affirmed guidance, yet lost 15% over the last 5 days. Even their new "HD-Wave" inverter is nothing more than the same as before, but smaller. Remember when Apple iMac launched their "Colors"? Maybe they can do that to make them exciting.

[J.P.M.]

FWIW, I bailed on all my solar stuff about 6 months ago. I might be back some day, but things in solar/R.E. may be too unsettled for the next little bit. I suspect storage will be one of the big drivers for the future direction, but who knows ?

[SunEagle]

FWIW, I bailed on all my solar stuff about 6 months ago. I might be back some day, but things in solar/R.E. may be too unsettled for the next little bit. I suspect storage will be one of the big drivers for the future direction, but who knows ?

IMO picking a company that creates the "best energy storage system" to invest in would be harder than picking the 6 correct numbers to win a state lottery.

[J.P.M.]

IMO picking a company that creates the "best energy storage system" to invest in would be harder than picking the 6 correct numbers to win a state lottery.

Yup. Just sayin'. However, an ETF, not unlike the symbol "TAN", that would be constructed as a somewhat pure play energy storage ETF might be worth a sniff for some gambling $$'s. I might consider self constructing an ETF something like that.

Maybe in my spare time when not measuring array temps.

[Willaby]

Is it translate to cheaper solar installation cost ? Should we see the $3/watt barrier will be broken this quarter (Nov-Jan) ?

If you're waiting months for the per watt installation cost to go down, besides risking losing out on NEM 1.0 limits, tax breaks, etc, also consider missing out on the monthly savings of having solar. The recoup for having solar is about 1%/month of the gross installation cost, so every 3-4 months of waiting is equal to 10-15c.

[J.P.M.]

If you're waiting months for the per watt installation cost to go down, besides risking losing out on NEM 1.0 limits, tax breaks, etc, also consider missing out on the monthly savings of having solar. The recoup for having solar is about 1%/month of the gross installation cost, so every 3-4 months of waiting is equal to 10-15c.

When installed system costs were running $4 - $5/Watt and system prices were dropping 10-15 %/yr., and in high POCO rate areas, it made sense as part of the decision input to see if waiting a while made more sense than committing at any one point in time. I believe that's still a valid input, but given the current pricing and somewhat flatter (recent history) price declines as f(time), I'd be less sure of a higher probability of the value of waiting being more cost effective than a sooner commitment, especially given the current somewhat incentive driven market conditions just now, particularly in CA. My gut says the few bucks that might be saved ain't worth the gamble.

[Willaby]

I'd be less sure of a higher probability of the value of waiting being more cost effective than a sooner commitment, especially given the current somewhat incentive driven market conditions just now, particularly in CA. My gut says the few bucks that might be saved ain't worth the gamble.

Agree on this, even more so in So Cal, SDG&E territory. I wouldn't want to gamble playing chicken with the NEM deadline to save 10 or 20c:

http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/2015/oct/28/solar-tariff-negotiations/

Will be interesting how it plays.

[J.P.M.]

Agree on this, even more so in So Cal, SDG&E territory. I wouldn't want to gamble playing chicken with the NEM deadline to save 10 or 20c:

http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/2015/oct/28/solar-tariff-negotiations/

Will be interesting how it plays.

To the extent I believe much of anything any news rag publishes, I can see a bit of fear mongering on the solar side with respect to the 5 % cap date, and a bit of hyperbole by SDG & E on the fairness issue.

The more things change, the more they stay the same.