Will solar power be over 1% of U.S. electricity production in 2016?

[pleppik]

That's only two years away. Coming up fast.

Just curious about everyone's thoughts.

[bonaire]

In good economic times, demand goes up. Also, if the drought in the west continues, AC demand will grow as well. That can dwarf the slow and steady growth of solar systems. Conservation and moving away from 120F climates is possibly a good idea. The problem is not 1% but peak demand points on the hottest days. People with multiple homes and needing to maintain climate controls in them also adds up.

[J.P.M.]

That's only two years away. Coming up fast.

Just curious about everyone's thoughts.

I wouldn't be surprised to find out that increased conservation measures displace more energy demand in the next 2 yrs. than solar, but have no way to verify it. To rerun a comment I made in a prior post: Back in the earlier days of solar, I heard one of the solar energy gurus say, in an unguarded moment, that the biggest and most serious threat to solar energy was not big oil or the utilities, but conservation.

[russ]

That's only two years away. Coming up fast.

Just curious about everyone's thoughts.

Would that be a big deal?

[pleppik]

Would that be a big deal?

Yes and no. It would be a big deal insofar as it would represent sustained and rapid growth over many years and a still-small-but-becoming-significant piece of total generation. It would be a big deal because it's a round number, like Dow 10,000 or 500 home runs.

It would be a big deal because it's much harder to ignore a technology which is 1% of generation than a technology which is 0.11% of generation (the 2012 number).

In a practical sense, it would be no more significant than 0.98% or 1.02%.

[russ]

In a practical sense, it would be no more significant than 0.98% or 1.02%.

Last I heard, 1% of something is not a very big slice. Without the current subsidy level it will not get much farther either.

[J.P.M.]

Last I heard, 1% of something is not a very big slice. Without the current subsidy level it will not get much farther either.

Sometimes its all relative. I'd like to get lucky 1% as much as Hugh Hefner.

[russ]

Sometimes its all relative. I'd like to get lucky 1% as much as Hugh Hefner.

In that case 1% would probably be too much for me more than I could handle.

[pleppik]

Last I heard, 1% of something is not a very big slice. Without the current subsidy level it will not get much farther either.

So what do you think the maximum % of U.S. power from solar will be?

Presumably you believe it will hit some level and then stop growing. I'm curious about what you think that level is.

[bcroe]

So what do you think the maximum % of U.S. power from solar will be?

Presumably you believe it will hit some level and then stop growing. I'm curious about what you think that level is.

I think the limit will be much influenced by how much RE the power co can work
around without risking blackouts. That number may improve, but not a lot
has happened yet. Bruce Roe

[billvon]

Will solar power be over 1% of U.S. electricity production in 2016?

Maybe. We have about 10GW installed solar right now, and are generating .25% of our power. There's about 25GW of utility scale power plants under construction or planned. Not sure when they will all come on line.

[J.P.M.]

Maybe. We have about 10GW installed solar right now, and are generating .25% of our power. There's about 25GW of utility scale power plants under construction or planned. Not sure when they will all come on line.

And I hope that comes to pass.

Some perspective perhaps:

I drove around the Ivanpah solar plant a couple of weeks ago until I got the bum's rush from security. From 20 miles out it looked like something out of a sci-fi movie. Easily seen from I-15 about 30 miles outside of Vegas. Pretty impressive.

However, some sober reflection and some back of envelope stuff will reveal that the 5.5 sq. miles of landscape taken up by that plant, as visually impressive as it is, will, on a yearly basis displace something like about 5%-6% of the electricity supplied by a not uncommonly sized 2,000 mW electric conventional coal/nuc. steam cycle central power plant. Thus, it will require about 100 sq. miles of solar plant to replace one reasonably common size conventional power plant. The kicker is that without and until the energy storage situation is addressed and solved, the conventional power plant or something with the same 24/7 availability with all its infrastructure will still be needed regardless of how many solar plants come on line.

I'm a solar fan, but if I was a POCO, I'd put a billboard on the other side of I-15 stating the above and give the great unwashed masses a dose of reality and the tree huggers apoplexy.

[billvon]

However, some sober reflection and some back of envelope stuff will reveal that the 5.5 sq. miles of landscape taken up by that plant, as visually impressive as it is, will, on a yearly basis displace something like about 5%-6% of the electricity supplied by a not uncommonly sized 2,000 mW electric conventional coal/nuc. steam cycle central power plant. Thus, it will require about 100 sq. miles of solar plant to replace one reasonably common size conventional power plant.

Let's run the numbers there for a PV based plant.

100 sq mi is about 258x10^6 square meters. Making a conservative assumption of 150 watts/sq m (about average for PV) then we would see generation of 38 gigawatts peak, or about 233 gigawatt-hours per day. Averaged over 24 hours (to compare it to a base load plant) that would be equivalent to 9 gigawatts, or about 9 1GW power plants (a common size for base load plants.)

The kicker is that without and until the energy storage situation is addressed and solved, the conventional power plant or something with the same 24/7 availability with all its infrastructure will still be needed regardless of how many solar plants come on line.

Agreed, although thermal storage solar plants will help significantly with that.

[russ]

Agreed, although thermal storage solar plants will help significantly with that.

Only questions are what, when and where. Nothing close today unfortunately.

[pleppik]

Only questions are what, when and where. Nothing close today unfortunately.

There's the plant in Spain which came online last fall, with 280MW and thermal storage.

I think I read something recently about this plant actually managing to deliver power 24 hours/day for some substantial fraction of the time, but I can't put my finger on the link right now.