Scientific American article on distributed power

[pleppik]

There's probably little in this article which will be new to people who follow the solar industry closely, but it's a nice trend summary of the challenges facing power companies and how they're trying to get ahead of the game.

One interesting thing I've noticed is how many people are interested in going off-grid, even knowing that it's more expensive than grid power. It seems that to some people, there's some real value to being "energy independent" on a personal level. If the storage technology ever gets to the point where going off-grid is only a slight cost premium (1.5x instead of 5x-10x) I think we'll see a lot of ordinary suburban folks cutting the cord. The utilities are right to be worried about the possibility of a death spiral of stranded assets sometime in the future.

[bcroe]

If the storage technology ever gets to the point where going off-grid is only a slight cost premium (1.5x instead of 5x-10x) I think we'll see a lot of ordinary suburban folks cutting the cord.

That's true, it would solve so many problems. But, not in my lifetime. First question I get from
interested people is if I'm off grid, but hardly any understand the implications. Bruce Roe

[Naptown]

Interesting take away is that module costs are about $.75 a watt as pronounced by the founder of Sunpower.
If someone could tell me where I can purchase their modules at that price I would corner the solar market!

[russ]

One interesting thing I've noticed is how many people are interested in going off-grid, even knowing that it's more expensive than grid power. Maybe 1 in 10,000 - you see very few come to the sight that will pay a premium if the grid is available

It seems that to some people, there's some real value to being "energy independent" on a personal level. What would that value be?

If the storage technology ever gets to the point where going off-grid is only a slight cost premium (1.5x instead of 5x-10x) I think we'll see a lot of ordinary suburban folks cutting the cord. The utilities are right to be worried about the possibility of a death spiral of stranded assets sometime in the future.

Stop, get off the green wagon and think.

1) Most people have no possibility of installing solar panels - apartment dwellers - house roof faces wrong - no money - no credit -

2) Industry uses the most power - that will never be solar with present technology

3) The percentage of total energy supplied by solar today is 1%? Got a ways to go I guess?

4) As more EVs come into use most will be powered off the grid

What you suggest isn't going to happen without a major improvement in PV technology as well as storage technology - neither of which are going to be here in the next 20 years.

[pleppik]

Interesting take away is that module costs are about $.75 a watt as pronounced by the founder of Sunpower.
If someone could tell me where I can purchase their modules at that price I would corner the solar market!

Well of course if it costs them $0.75 to make, you won't be able to buy them for less than $1. That's just business 101.

[pleppik]

What you suggest isn't going to happen without a major improvement in PV technology as well as storage technology

Agreed.

neither of which are going to be here in the next 20 years.

I'll check back in 2034 and see what happened.

I agree with you that this level of change is not going to happen in the next five years. But 20? I dunno, maybe. We're not talking about breaking the laws of physics here, just continued improvements in technology. 20 years ago, PV modules cost $8-$10/watt (in inflation-adjusted dollars). I think $1/watt would have seemed like a pipe dream back then.

(And before you trot out the "It takes energy to refine the silicon" argument, you may want to research what % of the total cost of a PV system goes into the energy to refine silicon, and just how thick the active layer of a solar cell is.)

[billvon]

One interesting thing I've noticed is how many people are interested in going off-grid, even knowing that it's more expensive than grid power. It seems that to some people, there's some real value to being "energy independent" on a personal level. If the storage technology ever gets to the point where going off-grid is only a slight cost premium (1.5x instead of 5x-10x) I think we'll see a lot of ordinary suburban folks cutting the cord. The utilities are right to be worried about the possibility of a death spiral of stranded assets sometime in the future.

It's already happening in Hawaii; it's actually cheaper on a 20 year basis to go completely off-grid due to high power costs, good insolation and (fairly recent) restrictions on grid tied solar.

[inetdog]

It's already happening in Hawaii; it's actually cheaper on a 20 year basis to go completely off-grid due to high power costs, good insolation and (fairly recent) restrictions on grid tied solar.

The chances of grid parity for off grid installation with batteries is certainly better in HI than anywhere else in the US, but even with POCO power at $.50/kWh those who say it is cheaper to go off grid are making some very optimistic assumptions about battery life and cost which current mainstream (i. e. working) technology does not support.

Dereck (Sunking) will be glad to do the math for you on that, using proven designs for long term off grid PV.

Maybe when HI power gets above $1.00/kWh?

[russ]

Agreed.(And before you trot out the "It takes energy to refine the silicon" argument, you may want to research what % of the total cost of a PV system goes into the energy to refine silicon, and just how thick the active layer of a solar cell is.)

Nice attempt to put words in my mouth but we are talking about major changes - there is no major change available there.

[russ]

It's already happening in Hawaii; it's actually cheaper on a 20 year basis to go completely off-grid due to high power costs, good insolation and (fairly recent) restrictions on grid tied solar.

That is a specific situation - like CA high TOU or tier costs - nothing to do with grid parity in a general discussion.

[Shockah]

It's already happening in Hawaii; it's actually cheaper on a 20 year basis to go completely off-grid due to high power costs, good insolation and (fairly recent) restrictions on grid tied solar.

It's not happening very quickly... and will never gain momentum on Oahu.
A realistic indicator is: The largest PV supplier on the island does not stock off-grid components.

As long as batteries/storage is involved, it will never be cheaper to go off-grid here.
Along with the highest KWH costs in the nation, so is everything that is imported/shipped in.
Don't expect to be buying batteries at California prices anytime soon.

Maui and the Big-Island of Hawaii have more Off-Grid activity due to having more rural properties.

Frustrated Oahu HECO customers like to chat about off-grid independence. But once they learn of the costs (particularly batteries), and discipline required by off-grid, they quickly get a hold of their emotions.

There are a few PV Installers jumping on the Off-Grid marketing campaign...
but only as a result of desperation because HECO's regulations has taken the knife out of their bread-and-butter.

[Shockah]

Maybe when HI power gets above $1.00/kWh?

... and at that point Matson will have already doubled their shipping charges, causing the cost of batteries to triple.

There is never going to be a win/win with off-grid conversions here.

[russ]

It's not happening very quickly... and will never gain momentum on Oahu.
A realistic indicator is: The largest PV supplier on the island does not stock off-grid components.

As long as batteries/storage is involved, it will never be cheaper to go off-grid here.
Along with the highest KWH costs in the nation, so is everything that is imported/shipped in.
Don't expect to be buying batteries at California prices anytime soon.

Shockah - You just peed on bill's green parade - the greens need to have certain truths to pray to - getting rid of the utilities seems to be one of those. That ain't gonna happen in the near future - if ever.

[Shockah]

Shockah - You just peed on bill's green parade - the greens need to have certain truths to pray to - getting rid of the utilities seems to be one of those. That ain't gonna happen in the near future - if ever.

There is one ray of hope for the greens in Hawaii ... if Tesla was to build their Battery Factory HERE ... but that aint ever gonna happen either... damn real estate is too expensive

[Sunking]

Well I am real familiar with distributive power and its long term plans. First phase is installing Smart Meters so POCO can turn on/off you various appliances like air conditioners and have a look inside your home. But the big picture is to put small nuclear plants distributed strategically in and around a city. These are small passive units that can be fit in your house basement and you would not even know they are there. It looks a lot like cellular telephone service. If one reactor shut downs the surrounding reactors can make up for the loss until repairs are made.