Solar to provide 20% of energy by 2027

[inetdog]

but solar is going to get much cheaper, natural gas probably won't

Yet a few relatively modest investments in distribution systems will allow natural gas to be economical in parts of the country where it is not currently viable at electric utility scale.

[veritass]

Mainly cheap natural gas. It is seen as a "greener" alternative than coal, and is currently very cheap.

but solar is going to get much cheaper, natural gas probably won't

[jflorey2]

Why wouldn't the trend continue?

Mainly cheap natural gas. It is seen as a "greener" alternative than coal, and is currently very cheap.

[veritass]

... if trends continue. That's certainly not a given. They were just saying 20% by 2027 would not be rediculous given how fast it's increasing.

Also, most of their work was on price of modules, not on balance of systems. The "20% by 2027" part was more of a WAG on their part than their projections about falling module prices.

Here's a direct link to the paper:
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science...48733315001699

Why wouldn't the trend continue?

[SunEagle]

Did they assume subsides remain unchanged? That seems a particularly risky assumption.

Subsides probably didn't even get considered since the study came out of the UK and they were talking about the entire world and not just US installations.

Like I said anything is possible but with the price of oil going down, the number of new fossil fuel (coal & natural gas) generation being built world wide as well as the increase of wind generation, I would think that solar will have a fight to gain that much more of the power generation pie.

[DanKegel]

Did they assume subsides remain unchanged? That seems a particularly risky assumption.

[SunEagle]

So in 9 years the expectations are to triple the amount of global solar power from around 7% to 20%. Seems pretty steep clime even if prices keep going down but anything is possible.

[DanKegel]

... if trends continue. That's certainly not a given. They were just saying 20% by 2027 would not be rediculous given how fast it's increasing.

Also, most of their work was on price of modules, not on balance of systems. The "20% by 2027" part was more of a WAG on their part than their projections about falling module prices.

Here's a direct link to the paper:

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048733315001699

[veritass]

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jan/26/solar-panel-costs-predicted-to-fall-10-a-year