Solar to provide 20% of energy by 2027

[DanKegel]

Unfortunately I agree. At some point the cost of the materials will flatten out. ...

That's true... and yet there might be technology changes that make panels radically cheaper.
Thin film is showing a lot of promise, and you never know, that might be awfully cheap to make someday.

The somewhat irrational enthusiasm for rooftop solar sure seems to be driving down the cost of solar...
and at some point, the beancounters are going to say "Damn, solar *is* cheaper", and utilities are going to swoop in and start building huge farms.
HUGE! It's going to be great!

[SunEagle]

Comparisons to other countries have also indicated that a significant part of the cost of PV in the US is in permits, regulations and construction delays associated with them. Particularly for large (utility scale) projects.

Yep. Most of that comes from restrictions on land use and push back from environmentalists that have issues with the intrusion into wildlife habitats.

Not that I want to see wild life disappear or worse go extinct but someone needs to make a decision between clean power or critters.

[inetdog]

Comparisons to other countries have also indicated that a significant part of the cost of PV in the US is in permits, regulations and construction delays associated with them. Particularly for large (utility scale) projects.

[SunEagle]

Not so long ago the cost of solar panels was astronomical. But with the advances in silicon processing, they have
already dropped to be a small part of a system cost. Even if solar cells were free, system cost wouldn't drop so much.

Bruce Roe

Unfortunately I agree. At some point the cost of the materials will flatten out. The only savings will be in how efficiently they can be produced. More than likely that will require less humans and more automation during the assembly.

The other issue is the cost to install a solar system. While large Utility scale systems can keep the labor costs down the smaller home system will still keep $/watt up due to wages and over head for the installer.

[bcroe]

You wrongly compare the drop in prices in solar panels to a financial bubble. Better technology makes cheaper more efficient panels possible. Technology and manufacturing efficiencies get better with time. Obviously, the theoretical maximum efficiency is 100%, but current solar panels are at around 16 to 20%. There is theoretical minimum to cost though. There is a ton of research going on a solar and a lot of different technologies and type of panels.

Already, leading thin film solar manufacture is at 16% efficiency and their utility scale installed cost will below $1 a watt by 2017. Thin film has a long way to go. Also Solar City's cost per watt of their solar panels is around 50 cents for a 21.5% efficient module. Higher efficiency modules lower the balance of systems costs. Also,there is a lot of research is being done in perovskite, which is a lot cheaper than silcon solar panels. There is a ton of research going on out there. Obviously, the long-term trend is down.

Not so long ago the cost of solar panels was astronomical. But with the advances in silicon processing, they have
already dropped to be a small part of a system cost. Even if solar cells were free, system cost wouldn't drop so much.

Bruce Roe

[Sunking]

Crazy

[veritass]

Pretty much every person has said "this is going to get cheaper with no end in sight!" (and "this stock is going to keep going up forever!" or "this isn't a bubble - prices will just continue to rise!") has been wrong. Solar-PV is now running into some basic limitations - the price of silicon, the price of aluminum and glass for frames, copper for wiring. You can't make something cheaper than the parts it is constructed from, no matter how little you pay your workers or no matter how much you automate. We will see some small improvements, but the days of order-of-magnitude decreases in cost are over.

And at some point cellphones will hit that limit, and not get any cheaper or better. However, due to the basic physics involved, we are a long way from that. Solar doesn't follow the same scaling factors - you cannot make a solar panel 1/4 the size and increase its power by 4 times. Again, basic physics.

You wrongly compare the drop in prices in solar panels to a financial bubble. Better technology makes cheaper more efficient panels possible. Technology and manufacturing efficiencies get better with time. Obviously, the theoretical maximum efficiency is 100%, but current solar panels are at around 16 to 20%. There is theoretical minimum to cost though. There is a ton of research going on a solar and a lot of different technologies and type of panels.

Already, leading thin film solar manufacture is at 16% efficiency and their utility scale installed cost will below $1 a watt by 2017. Thin film has a long way to go. Also Solar City's cost per watt of their solar panels is around 50 cents for a 21.5% efficient module. Higher efficiency modules lower the balance of systems costs. Also,there is a lot of research is being done in perovskite, which is a lot cheaper than silcon solar panels. There is a ton of research going on out there. Obviously, the long-term trend is down.

[jflorey2]

Solar is a technology that gets more efficient and cheaper with time. Solar has dropped in price much more than natural gas over the last 10 years and will continue to do so because that is how technology products progress over time.

Pretty much every person has said "this is going to get cheaper with no end in sight!" (and "this stock is going to keep going up forever!" or "this isn't a bubble - prices will just continue to rise!") has been wrong. Solar-PV is now running into some basic limitations - the price of silicon, the price of aluminum and glass for frames, copper for wiring. You can't make something cheaper than the parts it is constructed from, no matter how little you pay your workers or no matter how much you automate. We will see some small improvements, but the days of order-of-magnitude decreases in cost are over.

To assume that technological progress will stop in solar is like saying cell phones will be more expensive and not as good in five years.

And at some point cellphones will hit that limit, and not get any cheaper or better. However, due to the basic physics involved, we are a long way from that. Solar doesn't follow the same scaling factors - you cannot make a solar panel 1/4 the size and increase its power by 4 times. Again, basic physics.

[J.P.M.]

So in 9 years the expectations are to triple the amount of global solar power from around 7% to 20%. Seems pretty steep clime even if prices keep going down but anything is possible.

~ 10% growth/yr. compounded annually or so depending on 9 to 11 yrs. or so. Ahh !!!, the power of compounding.

[veritass]

Well you would think so BUT consider this, fluctuating currency value, price of silicon wafers, price of aluminum, wages in China are rising not falling this is increasing there cost of manufacturing.

The things you mentioned above can affect pricing over the short- and medium-term, but long-term pricing will be down because technology is improving and manufacturing efficiencies are improving. There is an enormous amount of research going on in solar and solar panels will get cheaper and more efficient over time. To assume that technological progress will stop in solar is like saying cell phones will be more expensive and not as good in five years.

[inetdog]

Ahh. Don't pop his bubble. Maybe solar will get cheaper than dirt.

But it can never get cheaper than sand as long as silicon based cells are used.

[SunEagle]

Well you would think so BUT consider this, fluctuating currency value, price of silicon wafers, price of aluminum, wages in China are rising not falling this is increasing there cost of manufacturing.

Ahh. Don't pop his bubble. Maybe solar will get cheaper than dirt.

[solar pete]

Solar is a technology that gets more efficient and cheaper with time. Solar has dropped in price much more than natural gas over the last 10 years and will continue to do so because that is how technology products progress over time.

Well you would think so BUT consider this, fluctuating currency value, price of silicon wafers, price of aluminum, wages in China are rising not falling this is increasing there cost of manufacturing.

[veritass]

I don't think solar is going to get much cheaper. It bottomed out at about 70 cents a watt (panels only) and has since rebounded a bit.

Meanwhile, natural gas continues to drop - and even in a scenario where solar continues to increase, natural gas is the only alternative to the "evil" coal and nuclear baseload plants in most locations.

Solar is a technology that gets more efficient and cheaper with time. Solar has dropped in price much more than natural gas over the last 10 years and will continue to do so because that is how technology products progress over time.

[jflorey2]

but solar is going to get much cheaper, natural gas probably won't

I don't think solar is going to get much cheaper. It bottomed out at about 70 cents a watt (panels only) and has since rebounded a bit.

Meanwhile, natural gas continues to drop - and even in a scenario where solar continues to increase, natural gas is the only alternative to the "evil" coal and nuclear baseload plants in most locations.