California generated 10% of it's energy via solar in 2015

[jflorey2]

With rooftop solar utilities will have competition for the first time. Efficiency should improve because utilities finally have real competition.

Well, the real competition is not with grid tied solar; it's with off-grid solar. That is the comparison that has to be made if you are really going to "replace" the utility. Until then, utilities have the option to simply deny connection of solar to their utility.

[SunEagle]

With rooftop solar utilities will have competition for the first time. Efficiency should improve because utilities finally have real competition.

I am not sure the small percentage of power generated from rooftop systems would be considered competition by most POCO's. It certainly helps the home owner but the POCO's probably see it more as a nuisance. That is unless they can claim the power generated from them as being part of the state government mandate to have certain % of their power come from RE.

Last time I read, CA POCO's could not claim home own systems as part of their mandate. Which seems odd to me since their governor has set a very high percentage target (50% by 2030) for all power coming from RE.

[DanKegel]

They can claim it if they buy the rec's, I think. And those are cheap. Not sure what the fuss is about.

[veritass]

I am not sure the small percentage of power generated from rooftop systems would be considered competition by most POCO's. It certainly helps the home owner but the POCO's probably see it more as a nuisance. That is unless they can claim the power generated from them as being part of the state government mandate to have certain % of their power come from RE.

Last time I read, CA POCO's could not claim home own systems as part of their mandate. Which seems odd to me since their governor has set a very high percentage target (50% by 2030) for all power coming from RE.

Utility companies see rapidly falling costs for solar power systems and realize they will be a real threat in the future. Installed solar systems are declining consistently by over 10% a year and batteries costs are falling too. Already Hawaii has a pretty high solar system penetration rate.

[SunEagle]

Utility companies see rapidly falling costs for solar power systems and realize they will be a real threat in the future. Installed solar systems are declining consistently by over 10% a year and batteries costs are falling too. Already Hawaii has a pretty high solar system penetration rate.

Well Hawaii has the highest electric rates so it makes it easier to justify a solar/battery system there. That is also true for CA and maybe a few other locations around the US but the average cost for power is around $0.12/kWh and batteries are still very expensive so while prices for solar and batteries are coming down unless everyone's electric rates goes up paybacks will be for years in the double digit area.

What we will see is more Utility sized (100MW and greater) solar arrays which will be cost competitive to other type of power generating plants. But the small (< 15kw) home owner type will really not threaten the POCO. Those small system will more likely be just a PIA that crimps their financial plan but will never really hurt it.

[DanKegel]

Yep, the more 100MW arrays, the better. They can be far cheaper than home systems.

But it's not just Hawaii. California's new 2 cent per kwh charge for using the grid as a battery, and its mandatory TOU for solar, is starting to incentivize storage a bit. The next few years are going to be interesting.

[veritass]

Well Hawaii has the highest electric rates so it makes it easier to justify a solar/battery system there. That is also true for CA and maybe a few other locations around the US but the average cost for power is around $0.12/kWh and batteries are still very expensive so while prices for solar and batteries are coming down unless everyone's electric rates goes up paybacks will be for years in the double digit area.

What we will see is more Utility sized (100MW and greater) solar arrays which will be cost competitive to other type of power generating plants. But the small (< 15kw) home owner type will really not threaten the POCO. Those small system will more likely be just a PIA that crimps their financial plan but will never really hurt it.

Solar is declining dramatically while electricity rates will continue to rise since the grid needs to be upgraded and ratepayers are going to pay for it. 60% of electricity cost is due to distribution vs 40% for generation so it make sense to have distributed to power generation. With the advent of the growth of solar power, electric vehicles and batteries it is finally a really interesting time to be in the electricity business.

[RedDenver]

Solar is declining dramatically while electricity rates will continue to rise since the grid needs to be upgraded and ratepayers are going to pay for it. 60% of electricity cost is due to distribution vs 40% for generation so it make sense to have distributed to power generation. With the advent of the growth of solar power, electric vehicles and batteries it is finally a really interesting time to be in the electricity business.

Do you have a source for the distribution vs generation costs?

[veritass]

Do you have a source for the distribution vs generation costs?

I heard the CEO of Solar City say that in an interview. If you look through all his interviews on youtube you can probably find it.

[DanKegel]

http://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/i...fecting_prices says distribution's a smaller percentage than that.

But LADWP is going to be spending plenty upgrading its distribution system soon; I'm not sure what that does to that fraction.

[veritass]

http://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/i...fecting_prices says distribution's a smaller percentage than that.

But LADWP is going to be spending plenty upgrading its distribution system soon; I'm not sure what that does to that fraction.

I believe in the interview he made the point that natural gas prices came down a lot of the last couple of years, yet electricity prices went up on average.