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http://about.bnef.com/press-releases...s-fossil-fuels says:
"The BNEF study shows that the global average levelised cost of electricity, or LCOE, for onshore wind nudged downwards from $85 per megawatt-hour in the first half of the year, to $83 in H2, while that for crystalline silicon PV solar fell from $129 to $122.
In the same period, the LCOE for coal-fired generation increased from $66 per MWh to $75 in the Americas,... The LCOE for combined-cycle gas turbine generation rose from $76 to $82 in the Americas..."
By those figures, the premium for PV over coal-fired generation was (129-66)=$63/MWH in 2015H1, and (122-75)=$47/MWH in 2015/H2.
That's a pretty fast decline. It's a bit hard to believe.
Now a cautionary word; just because the premium for something falls to zero doesn't mean it's economically viable (without considering subsidies or external costs of carbon emissions, anyway):
http://www.forbes.com/sites/williamp...ing-time-bomb/ points out that LCOE isn't really a great metric by itself. It seems that if the LACE ("levelized" avoided cost of electricity) for PV is greater than its LCOE, then it's worth building.
http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/ele...generation.cfm estimates those figures for 2020, and concludes that on average, the only power plants worth building in 2020 are geothermal, "reflecting the fact that on average, new capacity is not needed in 2020."
It'd be interesting to see their Table 4 redone with the effect of carbon pricing included.
"The BNEF study shows that the global average levelised cost of electricity, or LCOE, for onshore wind nudged downwards from $85 per megawatt-hour in the first half of the year, to $83 in H2, while that for crystalline silicon PV solar fell from $129 to $122.
In the same period, the LCOE for coal-fired generation increased from $66 per MWh to $75 in the Americas,... The LCOE for combined-cycle gas turbine generation rose from $76 to $82 in the Americas..."
By those figures, the premium for PV over coal-fired generation was (129-66)=$63/MWH in 2015H1, and (122-75)=$47/MWH in 2015/H2.
That's a pretty fast decline. It's a bit hard to believe.
Now a cautionary word; just because the premium for something falls to zero doesn't mean it's economically viable (without considering subsidies or external costs of carbon emissions, anyway):
http://www.forbes.com/sites/williamp...ing-time-bomb/ points out that LCOE isn't really a great metric by itself. It seems that if the LACE ("levelized" avoided cost of electricity) for PV is greater than its LCOE, then it's worth building.
http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/ele...generation.cfm estimates those figures for 2020, and concludes that on average, the only power plants worth building in 2020 are geothermal, "reflecting the fact that on average, new capacity is not needed in 2020."
It'd be interesting to see their Table 4 redone with the effect of carbon pricing included.
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