Moody's predicts battery storage economically viable in 3-5 years?

[DanKegel]

OK, it's just a press release, but:

https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-Declining-battery-prices-could-lead-to-commercial-and-industrial--PR_335274

"Commercial and industrial use of lithium-ion batteries for energy storage could become economically viable in the next three to five years if the decline in battery prices persists, according to a new report by Moody's Investors Service. Battery prices have declined more than 50% since 2010."

That's a big if; there's still a chance that the hoped-for price declines from e.g. Tesla's gigafactory don't pan out.
But investors pay attention to Moody's, and I bet any power company that gets a lot of revenue from peak power periods is getting nervous.

[jflorey2]

But investors pay attention to Moody's, and I bet any power company that gets a lot of revenue from peak power periods is getting nervous.

Oh, I doubt it. If such battery cost reductions pan out, the POCO's will be perfectly happy to buy megawatt-hours worth of batteries, use them to store energy from baseline generators at night, and then sell you the peak power at even higher prices. (To recoup the cost of the batteries, of course.)

[DanKegel]

I dunno... they already have nice peaker plants that are cheaper to run than buying batteries.
The risk is that the peaker plants won't bring in as much revenue as they expected, once competition from batteries ramps up.

[peakbagger]

Most peakers are justified by capacity payments. They just get paid to sit there and not run. They will bid into the grid at a high rate so of there is a sudden spike in power they gladly will crank up for a hour or two. Hard to beat 70,000 btus per pound for gas

[Sunking]

Don't you have anything better to do than surf the web all day long and post links to support your Activism. I know you have been booted from a few forums from doing that. Even stranger why Pete pays your bills.

[solar pete]

Don't you have anything better to do than surf the web all day long and post links to support your Activism. I know you have been booted from a few forums from doing that. Even stranger why Pete pays your bills.

Well we pay everyone's bills so to speak. I support solar and if someone posts something solar related well I think that's what we are here for, isn't it ?

[jflorey2]

I dunno... they already have nice peaker plants that are cheaper to run than buying batteries. The risk is that the peaker plants won't bring in as much revenue as they expected, once competition from batteries ramps up.

Exactly. Batteries aren't competitive right now, but as costs go down, they become more attractive and start competing with peakers. (This, of course, does not mean cheaper power - just the same cost of power, with fewer peakers and more batteries.)

[DanKegel]

Dammit, I missed this first time through:

"New York City stands out as the most promising economic market for peak-shaving because of its high demand charges, followed by California, Hawaii and the northeastern states," says Moody's VP -- Senior Credit Officer Swami Venkataraman, lead author of the report. "Current battery prices are only about 20-25% greater than breakeven levels for peak-shaving applications in New York City."

That's interesting. I didn't realize New York City would be a better place to deploy storage than Hawaii.
I guess it's expensive to ship all that fuel to the far-off island of Manhattan

[J.P.M.]

Well we pay everyone's bills so to speak. I support solar and if someone posts something solar related well I think that's what we are here for, isn't it ?

Hey Pete: If you hadn't noticed, I also support solar and R.E. as much or more than most anyone I know, but I'm not sure everything written that's favorable to solar is in solar's best long term interest.

I've seen and come up against a lot of the same opportunistic shills of the type I believe Sunking was referring to cite mostly junk surveys and free advertising masquerading as "studies" that are little more than a pitch to the solar ignorant for the latest pie in the sky treehugger's fanciful daydreaming.

That stuff does solar harm, not good. There's as much or more hype & B.S. about solar as ever. Constant references to this or that article or survey or study without some fact checking or at least some critical thought about veracity or motive are a waste of time and often come off as cheap grandstanding. Enough already. I'm with Sunking on this one. Besides, I'd bet he wasn't referring to you except for his last sentence.

[DanKegel]

I'm not sure how Moody's report does solar any harm; they're just pointing out that storage
costs are falling, and that there are opportunities for peak shaving in a few markets, like New York City.
That shouldn't be a big surprise. UBS said much the same thing recently in
https://neo.ubs.com/shared/d1OPTRAPjr1MeUn/ :

"So where are the primary markets for DG and Utility-scale storage?
The key markets to track are California, New York, and Hawaii aside the PJM in terms
of utility-scale opportunities; AZ's two smaller utilities have also recently explored gridscale
storage at the urging of the ACC. We continue to see the California IOUs as
crucial in pushing forward economics and scale on the subject."

Investors pay attention to analysis from companies like Moody's and UBS; they're fairly stolid and reputable.

So where's the harm?

[DanKegel]

Here's a related press release, fwiw:

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/irvine-company-and-advanced-microgrid-solutions-announce-groundbreaking-initiative-to-create-fleet-of-hybrid-electric-buildings-300157715.html

The Irvine Company is installing peak-shaving batteries at a few buildings, working together with their utility SCE.
I don't know if SCE is subsidizing it as part of their pilot storage program.

[SunEagle]

Here's a related press release, fwiw:

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/irvine-company-and-advanced-microgrid-solutions-announce-groundbreaking-initiative-to-create-fleet-of-hybrid-electric-buildings-300157715.html

The Irvine Company is installing peak-shaving batteries at a few buildings, working together with their utility SCE.
I don't know if SCE is subsidizing it as part of their pilot storage program.

Interesting to see that SunEdison has an agreement with AMS to help fund that energy storage system in Irvine yet for some reason recently backed out of another deal to purchase LAP in Chile.

They seem to have limited funds and are picking and choosing their investments.

SE acquisition.

[DanKegel]

This battery deal may be smaller and easier to digest than the deal you mentioned.

[SunEagle]

This battery deal may be smaller and easier to digest than the deal you mentioned.

More than likely since SE plans on cutting 15% of their work force. Downsizing and cost reduction is more likely their plan.