San Diego- Need advice, sizing and orientation - SDGE

[Acheron800]

New member here. This will be somewhat of a long post and I apologize in advance.

I have done tons of research over the last 2 years.

Back story: we purchased a gut job home with Spanish tile roof 2 years ago and did a full remodel. Of course at the time we considered solar, got bids etc.

At the time we passed on it because of cost and we rewired and replumbed the entire house. All gas appliances, all high efficiency for the electric appliances and all LED lighting inside and all LED landscape lighting. We do have a small pool and the pump runs 6 hours a day. Pool heater is gas.

I love gas, grew up on gas and gas was always cheap.

If you are in SD you know whats happened the last month where gas is basically 5x the cost. I will not be replacing appliances however my thinking is this, if SDGE is going to pull this BS on gas whats to prevent them doing the same thing with electricity. In conjunction with NEM3.0 coming solar is looking appealing again.

Our usage is pretty low, about 5000kwh per year between $150-200/mo on average. We are on DR plan because we don't move our usage hours however we cognizant on usage, we hardly use the AC because of cost and don't just waste power.

We do not have an EV and at this point none in foreseeable future but you never know. I love ICE and we are not "green" people. I just dont like being taken advantage of.

When I rewired the house I wired a 30 amp sub panel with transfer switch for my 30 amp dual fuel 3500w generator. But batteries could be a possibility in the future.

On to the system. I don't mind oversized because I could see ourselves using more if it's at no cost. From what I've calculated 100% offset would be 3.2kwh or so. I'm looking at 4.5-6kw systems to be future proof.

I'm leaning toward micro inverters.

On orientation I'm having an issue, I have a S-SE roof and I have a W-SW roof.

The S roof could have some shading issues from the date Palms I installed on the side. It is my side yard and the array would be less noticeable on that side.

The W roof would have less shading issues but is the backyard and the array would be super noticeable. Also the W roof has a useless chimney on it from a fireplace I deleted. So the chimney would come down. Prcing for that is around $1500.

We are located about a mile from the beach in Carlsbad so we do have some marine layer issues. Don't know if that comes into play on orientation.

My questions are these:

1) Does it make sense for me to get solar to begin with?

My bids are running:
$23k for 5kw system string inverter with chimney removal picture framed without subpage upgrade.
$23k for 4.4kw system with microinverters without chimney removal. With subpanel upgrade, picture framed.
I am waiting on a couple more bids from another companies.


2) Does oversized make sense if future usage is going to increase most likely? What is too big in your experience. Diminishing returns and all.

3) What would be the ideal roof to use for orientation in my situation for production and offset? I have heard west is best recently but the companies I'm getting bids fromare saying to go with the S roof as production is the same. I have read you get better credits from W facing with the TOU plans.

I'm looking for any advice on whether this makes sense or not. Any advice is greatly appreciated and any corrections in my thinking are welcomed.

it seems my ROI is greatly affected because of my roof style.

Here's a Sat shot of my home and the orientation. IMG_20230115_102818.jpg

[J.P.M.]

What research have you done?
First off, know that you can get in under NEM 2.0 IF you submit an interconnection agreement w/ SDG & E by 04/13/2023. Solar will look a lot less appealing if you get stuck with NEM 3.0. NEM 2.0 was bad enough. NEM 3.0 may knock it out of the realm of cost effectiveness.
1.) Read "Solar Power Your Home for Dummies", a free online PDF download.
2.) Once you get a decent SWAG on your electrical load, get familiar with something called "PVWatts" from NREL. It's a user friendly PV modeling program. Read all the help screens a couple of times, make a couple of runs and you'll probably zero in on a size. The model will help you get an idea of optimal orientations and size.
3.) Come back here and ask questions your further education raises.
Do all that real soon. Like now.
4.) If cost effectiveness is one of your project goals and if by oversizing you mean adding system capacity without some idea of how much and what for, I wouldn't do it.

If you can do all that without panicking about the short time frame (and not get screwed by vendors - which is what's going on now that the 04/13 deadline doesn't leave a lot of time to do it right and the panic is staring to rear its ugly head)
and also get a system as shade free as possible
and using as much of the westward roof as possible
and using a string inverter (you won't need micros with a shade free array).

Welcome to the neighborhood and the forum of few(er) illusions.

[Acheron800]

What research have you done?
First off, know that you can get in under NEM 2.0 IF you submit an interconnection agreement w/ SDG & E by 04/13/2023. Solar will look a lot less appealing if you get stuck with NEM 3.0. NEM 2.0 was bad enough. NEM 3.0 may knock it out of the realm of cost effectiveness.
1.) Read "Solar Power Your Home for Dummies", a free online PDF download.
2.) Once you get a decent SWAG on your electrical load, get familiar with something called "PVWatts" from NREL. It's a user friendly PV modeling program. Read all the help screens a couple of times, make a couple of runs and you'll probably zero in on a size. The model will help you get an idea of optimal orientations and size.
3.) Come back here and ask questions your further education raises.
Do all that real soon. Like now.
4.) If cost effectiveness is one of your project goals and if by oversizing you mean adding system capacity without some idea of how much and what for, I wouldn't do it.

If you can do all that without panicking about the short time frame (and not get screwed by vendors - which is what's going on now that the 04/13 deadline doesn't leave a lot of time to do it right and the panic is staring to rear its ugly head)
and also get a system as shade free as possible
and using as much of the westward roof as possible
and using a string inverter (you won't need micros with a shade free array).

Welcome to the neighborhood and the forum of few(er) illusions.

Yes, I've done a ton of research. I understand I can even apply now myself and get approved during nem2.0 and actually do the build out later. As long as my ducks are in line and I spec out my build.

Ive calculated the difference between 100-150-200% offset but looking to see what others are doing with sdge and future proofing.

As far as the end of your post. Thanks for the info. Greatly appreciated. One vendor is recommending a sunny boy inverter. Are these solid?

I'll check out PVwatts.

[J.P.M.]

Yes, I've done a ton of research. I understand I can even apply now myself and get approved during nem2.0 and actually do the build out later. As long as my ducks are in line and I spec out my build.

Ive calculated the difference between 100-150-200% offset but looking to see what others are doing with sdge and future proofing.

As far as the end of your post. Thanks for the info. Greatly appreciated. One vendor is recommending a sunny boy inverter. Are these solid?

I'll check out PVwatts.

You're most welcome.
To my experience with about 150+ installs in my HOA which I've watched like a mother hen, The SMA/Sonny Boy stuff are about as robust as can be expected and fit for purpose.
Check this forum for prior posts and compare the numbers of posts about problems with SMA or Sunny Boy vs. problems with Enphase or SolarEdge.
Usually those with lots of useful PV research have been all over PVWatts in the early stages.
Ducks being in line usually involve preliminary design, building permits and evaluating vendors among other things.

[MGE]

All the advice you have recieved so far is spot on.
JPM on this site is very knowledgable and knows what he is talking about.
Even though we both have about the same amount of post's. JK.

PV Watts for my install overestimated by about 10% from actual usage.
Also in San Diego, North Clairemont, so we get a bit of the marine layer as well.

My orientation is 1/2 south facing and 1/2 west facing. Install back in 2013.

With some shading issues I have with either trees or 2nd story on my roof area I went with micro's.

Alot of people evidently have had problems with them but mine, and also a friend who lives a mile away, both went with the older Enphase 215's and have never had an issue with even one.
Plus being able to monitor panel output individually I feel is a bonus.

If I did have an issue with my system Enphase would send me a text/e-mail concerning the problem. I even get an e-mail when the web connection goes down.
So for troubleshooting purposes Im kinda in a good position.

I have a couple of friends with string inverters, not sure make/model, and they have had a couple of problems and it took them a while to figure out the cause. Actually they ended up calling me as they couldn't get the original installers to respond in a timely manner.
One had a loose Neutral connection in a j-box on the roof and the other had a faulty internal part on the inverter that went south. Took him about a month to get back on line.
If I had a problem with a panel or inverter on my system I would simply unplug that device and only be down whatever that panel/micro would of generated.

Occasionally my web connection goes out since my Envoy display is mounted in the garage by my workbench and I use an Apple Airport Express for my connection and I have to unplug/replug it a couple times a year. No power generation is lost or missed as it updates when connection is back on-line.



Going a bit bigger for future expansion I would think would be good idea to a point.

I currently have a 8.84 KW DC system and it generates approx. 90% of my total annual usage.
Thought about adding more capacity but adding more than 1kw would bump me out of my 1.0 rate plan which kinda nixes that idea, for now.

Dont have an all EV vehicle.
Wife has a 21' Hybrid and I currently have a 19" 1 ton Diesel so adding more panels or even battery storage for that matter is not pressing for me at this point.

Sounds like your well on your way to getting your ducks in a row before the April deadline.

[CharlieEscCA]

West roof is best because it shifts your production to later in the day. And later in the day is good because this lets more of the marine layer burn off, and more importantly increases production after 4 pm. I'm not certain if you can stay on DR with solar, or if you have to move to a TOU plan. But if you end up on TOU, you are better with west orientation.

Your prices seem high, but who knows with the rush to beat the NEM 3.0 deadline. I know I was able to get my 8.6 kW DC system installed for 24K in late 2019. I used Cosmic solar twice (2 houses) - 2017 and 2019, and would use them again.

[Acheron800]

West roof is best because it shifts your production to later in the day. And later in the day is good because this lets more of the marine layer burn off, and more importantly increases production after 4 pm. I'm not certain if you can stay on DR with solar, or if you have to move to a TOU plan. But if you end up on TOU, you are better with west orientation.

Your prices seem high, but who knows with the rush to beat the NEM 3.0 deadline. I know I was able to get my 8.6 kW DC system installed for 24K in late 2019. I used Cosmic solar twice (2 houses) - 2017 and 2019, and would use them again.

My best bid so far is 5.2kw for $21,500. Thats out of 5 companies. All picture framed, nobody will do stanchions.

[so_cal_burbs]

Archeron you are in the right place. I did my research here in 2017 and everything worked out except I didn't have a crystal ball. I scoffed at the sales guys trying to chart out a 10% annual increase in electric rates and now peak in summer is $.80+. I also didn't think I'd have an electric car but we now have two. I'm actually back today to research expanding my system before NEM 3.0 hits as our usage is far, far higher than I had projected. So JPM is right that oversizing has traditionally been a poor investment but I will also remind you that having to add later is also much more expensive than initial install. Not only is the price per kW higher due to fixed costs but SDG&E will void your NEM 2.0 agreement and put you into whatever the current rules are.
-If you do end up with an electric car figure 1kW is about 3 miles.
-California is pushing to move from NG to electric wherever possible. Today it is rebates but future may be mandated.
-Heat Pump water heater is about 1.1 kWh a year for family of three
I'll add that I shopped hard and got top tier LG Neon panels for a very good price. Three months later a neighbor friend got a 20% larger system for a little less than I paid because the mom/pop (but established) firm used older panels. Electricity is electricity if you have a roof big enough don't be afraid to not get the newest tech.
Good luck!

[OCJ]

You're in SDG&E, you can do 200% and still get a decent ROI. You probably already know but you do have to go to TOU and SDG&E just raised over baseline summer on-peak from $0.69 to $0.83 for TOU-DR1.

Check out https://www.californiadgstats.ca.gov/find_installer/, it is a good site for seeing what's around you. Uncheck "Storage" though, and price/watt is AC and does include systems with batteries so you really have to download the spreadsheet and do some reverse engineering if you want exact numbers.

Those two quotes aren't great, but at this point getting in under NEM 3 will cost you a lot more than $1 per watt. The most important thing is they relay to you their acknowledgement of the importance of getting a good interconnect application in and do it.

To answer your other questions, absolutely oversize for an EV. The economics of an EV with solar are phenomenal. We got an Audi e-tron, which is almost identical to the SQ5 it replaced, and it's not even remotely efficient but we are still ahead of the game, especially since we got in right before the IRA killed the tax credit for Audi. I hear it's coming back for Tesla though.

Direction, IMO SW is king. I have 6 panels pointing that way, 7 pointing SE, but I have a battery too so it works for me to get it charged up ASAP in the morning. I also have NW and NE (LOL) but they still ROI out because SDG&E.

Good luck and get your 20 years of NEM 2.0 locked in!

[albert436]

West roof is best because it shifts your production to later in the day. And later in the day is good because this lets more of the marine layer burn off, and more importantly increases production after 4 pm. I'm not certain if you can stay on DR with solar, or if you have to move to a TOU plan. But if you end up on TOU, you are better with west orientation.

Your prices seem high, but who knows with the rush to beat the NEM 3.0 deadline. I know I was able to get my 8.6 kW DC system installed for 24K in late 2019. I used Cosmic solar twice (2 houses) - 2017 and 2019, and would use them again.

Hi Charlie, based on your comment I called Cosmic. They gave me a proposal for 14 x 400w Q-Cell panels system of ~$20K. A guy from Baker quoted me $25K off the top of his head for the same system, but emphasized their 85 year history, etc etc.

I have not yet gotten a formal proposal from Baker but am wondering about whether the Baker install quality is going to be 5k better than Cosmic?

[CharlieEscCA]

Hi Charlie, based on your comment I called Cosmic. They gave me a proposal for 14 x 400w Q-Cell panels system of ~$20K. A guy from Baker quoted me $25K off the top of his head for the same system, but emphasized their 85 year history, etc etc.

I have not yet gotten a formal proposal from Baker but am wondering about whether the Baker install quality is going to be 5k better than Cosmic?

I can only provide my knowledge and experience in dealing with Cosmic. I did a substantial investigation when installing solar at my old property in 2017, and Cosmic was my choice. The owner was an engineer that moved down here from the Bay area as recall, and I liked it was a family run business. All their references checked out, and the price was very competitive. I also got a quote from Baker as well, and I recall it was 7K or 8K higher.

When we bought land in Valley Center and built in 2019 (2020 occupancy), I only got a written bid from Cosmic (though I did get other prices via email - there was no house to survey, only plans). Cosmic coordinated with my roofer to install the mounts for the racking while underlayment was going in, and then coming back to install the panels after the roof was on the detached garage. Once again, the install was excellent quality.

I have recommended Cosmic to others on FB and to my friends. I did have one friend who went with them last summer and had some panel work and roof work done as well as solar, and she was very happy. I do not work for Cosmic, but I happily vouch for them, and in full disclosure I did receive a small referral from them for last year's friend installation as she provided my name as a referral.

But to you're question, unless Baker can explain what they are doing that Cosmic doesn't do in the two bids, I don't think Baker's install quality would be 5K better than Cosmic. But, only you can answer that question.

[albert436]

I can only provide my knowledge and experience in dealing with Cosmic. I did a substantial investigation when installing solar at my old property in 2017, and Cosmic was my choice. The owner was an engineer that moved down here from the Bay area as recall, and I liked it was a family run business. All their references checked out, and the price was very competitive. I also got a quote from Baker as well, and I recall it was 7K or 8K higher.

When we bought land in Valley Center and built in 2019 (2020 occupancy), I only got a written bid from Cosmic (though I did get other prices via email - there was no house to survey, only plans). Cosmic coordinated with my roofer to install the mounts for the racking while underlayment was going in, and then coming back to install the panels after the roof was on the detached garage. Once again, the install was excellent quality.

I have recommended Cosmic to others on FB and to my friends. I did have one friend who went with them last summer and had some panel work and roof work done as well as solar, and she was very happy. I do not work for Cosmic, but I happily vouch for them, and in full disclosure I did receive a small referral from them for last year's friend installation as she provided my name as a referral.

But to you're question, unless Baker can explain what they are doing that Cosmic doesn't do in the two bids, I don't think Baker's install quality would be 5K better than Cosmic. But, only you can answer that question.

You are up early!

I finally got the bright idea, finally, to look up reviews on Cosmic, and they are excellent! In the range of 4.9/5 with 98 reviews on Yelp and another c. 300 on solarreviews website.

I almost don't want to wait another couple of weeks for West Coast to come out here, I am a little impatient to get the ball rolling on the paperwork.

So I thank you for the recommendation. It's funny I had never heard of them before but what do I know about solar?

I have another question for the group. ***Is there anything that would preclude someone from taking the 30% tax credit on a PURCHASED (not leased) system, such as taxable earnings being too high?*** A friend says their accountant a few years ago told them it's not a 30% credit the way it appears. I suspect there was some misunderstanding and my friend could not remember how it was explained. Maybe the guy thought they were considering a lease ? ? Asking for myself and for them. I've sent the question to my CPA and my old tax preparer who sold his business to him.



Fingers crossed on all fronts here, think good thoughts/pray for me, etc. !

[Acheron800]

I got a bid from Cosmic. Was one of my highest.

[J.P.M.]

Hi Charlie, based on your comment I called Cosmic. They gave me a proposal for 14 x 400w Q-Cell panels system of ~$20K. A guy from Baker quoted me $25K off the top of his head for the same system, but emphasized their 85 year history, etc etc.

I have not yet gotten a formal proposal from Baker but am wondering about whether the Baker install quality is going to be 5k better than Cosmic?

In my experience, both Baker and Cosmic do good work. I've seen more of Baker's work in my HOA since ~ 2010 or so and IMO, it's good. I've only seen a couple of cosmic installs but they seemed quite good as well as being organized in their job execution.

I'm reasonably sure Baker is not worth $5K more. Screw their 85 year history. It ain't worth that much - maybe a grand IMO only. But they may be worth a formal request for proposal and a site visit.
Just be sure you know what you want and how it all works before you talk to any more vendors. Customer ignorance is like fresh and free meat to them and the good peddlers are all meat eaters.

If it was me (and it was in 2013), I'd tell Baker they were high - but meant as a friendly piece of advice, keep all the prices to yourself- which is what I did. The price match game is a trap for customers. Think like a vendor. You'll never get a lower price than $1 less than your lowest if you rat out all the vendors and share quotes. I've been on the other side of the table a lot and know how the game is run. Everything is negotiable. Besides, you have nothing to lose by keeping prices to yourself. Usually, wimpy and solar ignorant customers pussy out and get stampeded during negotiations (if they can be called that) and pay more as well as make things tougher for folks who know PV and know what to do in a negotiation.

However, the current reality is it's a seller's market just now and Baker wouldn't budge on price for me back in 2013 in a seller's market. Just sayin'.

FWIW, they were ~ 12 % higher than my aggressive price target price target back in the day and wouldn't budge at all and they lost a sale.

A story short: After some discussions, Milholland beat my price target by $0.05/STC W and got the business. Their system has operated flawlessly and I believe I got a bit more than I paid for, some of which I feel is due to a lot of vendor surveillance on my part during install, including sitting on the roof in an out of the way spot and just watching. I also got the lowest price/STC W for a Sunpower turnkey system installed in CA up to that time (by $0.05/STC W).
See the CSI data base SDG & E interconnection agreement # : SDGE-INT-47227. CSI reservation # SD-CSI-17646 for particulars.

[so_cal_burbs]

I had a quote from Baker five years ago and their bid was the most expensive but they sent someone to my house with a great binder full of photos and details and really put effort into education. I was a forum member here and really just wanted a quality install from a company that was going to be around for a good price. Baker I think gives two of those three things. Personally I consider them the company people go with when they aren't comfortable getting multiple quotes. I'd rather see a Baker truck than a Sunrun truck in the neighborhood.
FWIW, I am in the middle of a Cosmic install (expanding my existing SolarEdge system). Sales guy was great. Operations has been good. Panels are up and waiting on PTO. I did have a hiccup where the installer said he couldn't fit the panels specified onto the facet (4 rather than 7) but after I put a call into their HQ they were able to get six into that space which satisfied me. But I feel like an edge case that likely isn't applicable to full system installs. I'd recommend working with Cosmic Solar. And FWIW they were great about expanding a system put in by someone else whereas several local companies didn't want to touch it.