SCE forcing me off TOU-D-A

[gvl]

No, I do not think I will get to break even in under ten years. My goal has been to provide resiliency (backup}, reduce my cost of energy, and provide a hedge against erosion of NEM benefits and increasing rates.
I charge two EVs and have recently installed a minisplit heat pump to replace an old inefficient Forced Air Unit. I will be replacing a natural gas water heater with with a HPWH. The upfront cost of 42 kWh of LFP batteries was $125 per kWh and in two years they have not needed any repair or maintenance. I expect to get at least ten years out of them and the hybrid inverter. They have reduced the cost of energy and provided resiliency but the payback on the hedge is yet to be determined. I have had more expensive hobbies.

You’re an outlier with your oversized hobby-grade setup. I was curious about a lean system optimized for ROI under the new NEM2.0/TOU reality. In 2015 an optimal system would give you about 7 year payback with SCE, give or take. Not sure what it is now. With an EV I was net-consuming about 3000kWh annually with $100-200 statement credit at the end of each NEM period on TOU-D-A, that is history now.

[silversaver]

You’re an outlier with your oversized hobby-grade setup. I was curious about a lean system optimized for ROI under the new NEM2.0/TOU reality. In 2015 an optimal system would give you about 7 year payback with SCE, give or take. Not sure what it is now. With an EV I was net-consuming about 3000kWh annually with $100-200 statement credit at the end of each NEM period on TOU-D-A, that is history now.

I recall those days when withdraw 6000+ kWh under TOU-D-A and bill still break even. My ROI were due in less than 5 years so I have no complaint. I recall about $2.84 per Watt before incentive were great deal back in 2013.

[J.P.M.]

I recall those days when withdraw 6000+ kWh under TOU-D-A and bill still break even. My ROI were due in less than 5 years so I have no complaint. I recall about $2.84 per Watt before incentive were great deal back in 2013.

Yea, great deal is an understatement. As I recall, decent stuff comparable to what you got was running about $3.50 - $3.75/STC W at that time.
I remember writing at the time saying you must've had a horseshoe where the sun don't shine the day you signed at $2.84/W.
That price was so low I thought you were B.S. ing until I saw it on the CSI data set.
Too bad you didn't buy a lotto ticket that day.

[silversaver]

Yea, great deal is an understatement. As I recall, decent stuff comparable to what you got was running about $3.50 - $3.75/STC W at that time.
I remember writing at the time saying you must've had a horseshoe where the sun don't shine the day you signed at $2.84/W.
That price was so low I thought you were B.S. ing until I saw it on the CSI data set.
Too bad you didn't buy a lotto ticket that day.

Good memory haha

The reason is Bosch 255W panels, that is the year Bosch back out of solar manufacturing. The only negative is installer is out of business

[J.P.M.]

The only negative is installer is out of business

There seems to be a lot of that going around.

[Ampster]

EV is a gamble. An out of pocket out of warranty battery replacement will erase all savings.

Life is a gamble. I have been driving EVs for ten years and not had to replace a pack. I hedged those risks early on by leasing EVs but now have one with 110,000 miles and over six years old and still have 95 percent of the original pack capacity left. The savings over those years and miles would be enough to buy a replacement pack if I ever wanted to replace it. The warranty on the pack still has two years left on it.

[silversaver]

Life is a gamble. I have been driving EVs for ten years and not had to replace a pack. I hedged those risks early on by leasing EVs but now have one with 110,000 miles and over six years old and still have 95 percent of the original pack capacity left. The savings over those years and miles would be enough to buy a replacement pack if I ever wanted to replace it. The warranty on the pack still has two years left on it.

EV is great saving on gasoline for sure, but you must spend money first to save money. What I mean is solar system first. Without solar you will be paying at higher rate than what most manufactures suggest by using the lowest rate. Yes, you can choose their low rate on off peak hours to charge your EV, but you are paying way higher rate for your normal family time like 4-9pm. If on Tier plan, you are always paying the higher tier rate on charging.

EV is great for solar owner, but not necessary for non-solar owners. The 50mpg hybrid will work the same without distance and charging limitation. I have lease 4 EV in the past and end up buy out on one of them. It is smart to drive the car for 3 years first and buy it when you know the car is good.

[jasonvr]

No, I do not think I will get to break even in under ten years. My goal has been to provide resiliency (backup}, reduce my cost of energy, and provide a hedge against erosion of NEM benefits and increasing rates.
I charge two EVs and have recently installed a minisplit heat pump to replace an old inefficient Forced Air Unit. I will be replacing a natural gas water heater with with a HPWH. The upfront cost of 42 kWh of LFP batteries was $125 per kWh and in two years they have not needed any repair or maintenance. I expect to get at least ten years out of them and the hybrid inverter. They have reduced the cost of energy and provided resiliency but the payback on the hedge is yet to be determined. I have had more expensive hobbies.

A little off topic, but do you have info on your battery setup or have you posted about it somewhere? Things like what gear your using and what your hookup looks like?

[Ampster]

A little off topic, but do you have info on your battery setup or have you posted about it somewhere? Things like what gear your using and what your hookup looks like?

I use the same handle on the diysolarforum. It is discussed there on various threads as are sources for LFP batteries.

My battery system is 42 kWhs of LFP batteries connected to a Outback Skybox. The Skybox is a hybrid inverter that runs my critical loads panel. It is configured for Self Consumption Mode which means to use the grid as last resort. Also connected to that subpanel are 7 kW of PV panels powered by Enphase micro inverters.

When the grid is up the AC from the micros is used by the loads on my critical loads panel and flows through the Skybox to the main panel. From there it is used by my other subpanel which has my non critical loads like EV charging, electric dryer and oven. Anything left over is sold to the grid via the main breaker panel. When the sun goes down and micros are not producing, the Skybox powers the critical loads.
When the grid is down the Skybox becomes the grid forming device that allows the GT micros to operate. This process is called AC coupling.