PG&E NEM 1.0 cap estimates? Safe to proceed with June/July solar install?

[ltbighorn]

Sort of on topic with this thread, the CPUC just released a new proposed decision with directives on how progress toward the NEM caps should be reported:

http://docs.cpuc.ca.gov/PublishedDocs/Efile/G000/M162/K005/162005384.PDF

Some interesting discussion in it about how each IOU has approached its reporting system.

Very interesting, thanks sensij. Assuming it gets approved by the CPUC, it sounds like little will change for PG&E and SDG&E, but SCE will be forced to implement a reservation system. Given the mass of hopefully dead-ish PG&E applications that would have been shoved into the reservation system, completely filling it on day 1, I'm certainly glad they didn't do that. Talk about creating uncertainty.

Some interesting changes in reporting:

SDG&E should continue the twice daily update of information on its web
site until it reaches its capacity cap. PG&E should continue to update the
information on its web site weekly, but should switch to a daily update as soon
as feasible, and in any event not later than July 1, 2016. SCE should begin a
weekly update of the information on its website not later than July 1, 2016. SCE
should move to a daily update on January 1, 2017, or when the sum of the MW
reported in (Cumulative NEM Installations + NEM Installations in Queue + Total
NEM Requests Pending) = 90% of the MW available in SCE's capacity cap,
whichever occurs first.

So that confirms the new data in the PG&E reports, their new weekly update process, and a likely switch to daily reporting on July 1st. They have not yet posted data for this last week so no updates there.

[silversaver]

If NEM 1.0 is cap, then you are not interesting to have your solar install? If not, then no worry. You will have your solar install regardless of NEM 1.0 or 2.0

What ever the info you get here is just as same as you do your own researching, unless there's someone here work for your POCO can answer that for you.

[ltbighorn]

Looks like PG&E skipped the update for week ending 5/15, but posted their 5/22 update today.

347.60 MW remaining, a decrease of 20.91 MW in those 2 weeks (average 1.493 MW/day, or 10.45 MW/week). This is a bit slower than the first week of May.

For the 22 days of May, that's 381.85 MW (on 4/30) - 347.60 (on 5/22) = 34.25 MW. (average of 1.556 MW/day, or 10.9 MW/week).

If the rest of May (9 days) proceeds at the average rate of the first 22 days, then that'll be another 14 MW, for a total of 48.25 MW in May with 333.60 MW remaining.

At an ongoing rate of 48.25 MW/month it wouldn't be exhausted until mid-to-late December, but that's probably unlikely, given how much slower May seemed than April. Because PG&E didn't give specific dates on their updates prior to 4/30 it's a bit hard to tell exactly how much was added in specific months before that. Either way, May hasn't followed an increasing trend, so it'll be interesting to see what June brings. I'm feeling pretty good for my early July install -- hard to imagine 347 MW being consumed in the next 2.5 months.

Total Available MW Cap		2,409 MW	5% of 48,177 MW
Applications Received in May 2016 as of 05/22/16 (New requests for NEM interconnection)	4,317	37.37 MW
Total NEM Applications in Queue² as of 05/22/16 (Total pending requests for NEM interconnection)	1,018	16.33 MW
Cumulative NEM Installations³ (Projects approved for NEM interconnection)	248,440	2,045.07 MW
NEM Installations and Pending Applications (Cumulative MW installed under NEM + NEM MW in Queue)	249,458	2,061.40 MW	4.28%
Remaining MW to Cap (NEM Cap minus (Cumulative MW installed under NEM + NEM MW in Queue))		347.60 MW

¹The purpose of this report is to adhere to Public Utilities (PU) Code Section 2827(c)(4)(C), which directs each large electrical corporation to file a monthly report with the California Public Utilities Commission detailing the progress toward the NEM program limit. This report includes all systems either seeking interconnection or interconnected under the NEM program pursuant to PU Code Section 2827 (e.g., solar, wind, fuel cells using renewable fuels, etc.)
²Complete NEM applications that have been received and are pending authorization to operate from PG&E through the month indicated on this file.
³Includes cumulative installations approved for NEM interconnection since NEM inception in 1996 (does not include systems that terminated NEM interconnection with the utility).

PG&E is providing further information about the available capacity under the NEM Program cap. This information is in addition to the Monthly AB327 NEM Program Limit Report provided above.

Total NEM Requests Pending4 as of 05/22/16 (Total submitted requests pending customer action such as providing final building permit to PG&E)	10,842	440.20 MW
Remaining MWs to NEM Cap Assuming All Pending Requests on the Line Immediately Above Complete Their Projects and Provide PG&E With the Final Building Permits Required To Be Approved for NEM.		0.00 MW

[ltbighorn]

One more week, 13.69 MW less remaining to cap. Roughly on par with the first 3 weeks of May.

Total for May 1-30 (ignoring May 31) is 47.94 MW. 333.91 MW remaining.


Monthly AB 327 Net Energy Metering (NEM) Program Limit Report¹

Total Available MW Cap		2,409 MW	5% of 48,177 MW
Applications Received in May 2016 as of 05/30/16 (New requests for NEM interconnection)	5,990	50.90 MW
Total NEM Applications in Queue² as of 05/30/16 (Total pending requests for NEM interconnection)	706	17.13 MW
Cumulative NEM Installations³ (Projects approved for NEM interconnection)	250,281	2,057.97 MW
NEM Installations and Pending Applications (Cumulative MW installed under NEM + NEM MW in Queue)	250,987	2,075.09 MW	4.31%
Remaining MW to Cap (NEM Cap minus (Cumulative MW installed under NEM + NEM MW in Queue))		333.91 MW

¹The purpose of this report is to adhere to Public Utilities (PU) Code Section 2827(c)(4)(C), which directs each large electrical corporation to file a monthly report with the California Public Utilities Commission detailing the progress toward the NEM program limit. This report includes all systems either seeking interconnection or interconnected under the NEM program pursuant to PU Code Section 2827 (e.g., solar, wind, fuel cells using renewable fuels, etc.)
²Complete NEM applications that have been received and are pending authorization to operate from PG&E through the month indicated on this file.
³Includes cumulative installations approved for NEM interconnection since NEM inception in 1996 (does not include systems that terminated NEM interconnection with the utility).

PG&E is providing further information about the available capacity under the NEM Program cap. This information is in addition to the Monthly AB327 NEM Program Limit Report provided above.

Total NEM Requests Pending4 as of 05/30/16 (Total submitted requests pending customer action such as providing final building permit to PG&E)	10,831	439.04 MW
Remaining MWs to NEM Cap Assuming All Pending Requests on the Line Immediately Above Complete Their Projects and Provide PG&E With the Final Building Permits Required To Be Approved for NEM.		0.00 MW

⁴Total pending NEM requests received by PG&E. These pending NEM requests are distinct from the "Total NEM Applications in Queue" reported above, which have submitted completed application packages. Rather, the "Total NEM Request Pending" includes only NEM requests that are pending further applicant actions necessary to complete their NEM Application.

[ltbighorn]

First week of June shows remaining MW to cap reduced by 9.54 MW, which is about on-par for a 50 MW month. New applications were down substantially in this first week, but not surprising since it was Memorial Day weekend.

Looking back of the previous weeks, one thing I noticed is that the Total NEM Requests Pending (total submitted requests pending customer action) slowed down the last couple weeks.

04/21 or earlier (exact update date not known): 15,336
04/30: 12,513
05/08: 12,172
05/22: 10,842
05/30: 10,831
06/05: 10,825

The overall number of installs is a quite a bit larger than the requests-pending-customer-action movement, so it's hard to know whether it's just ripples from normal motion, or old submissions aging out.
Monthly AB 327 Net Energy Metering (NEM) Program Limit Report¹

Total Available MW Cap		2,409 MW	5% of 48,177 MW
Applications Received in June 2016 as of 06/05/16 (New requests for NEM interconnection)	769	6.42 MW
Total NEM Applications in Queue² as of 06/05/16 (Total pending requests for NEM interconnection)	749	15.60 MW
Cumulative NEM Installations³ (Projects approved for NEM interconnection)	251,201	2,069.03 MW
NEM Installations and Pending Applications (Cumulative MW installed under NEM + NEM MW in Queue)	251,950	2,084.63 MW	4.33%
Remaining MW to Cap (NEM Cap minus (Cumulative MW installed under NEM + NEM MW in Queue))		324.37 MW

¹The purpose of this report is to adhere to Public Utilities (PU) Code Section 2827(c)(4)(C), which directs each large electrical corporation to file a monthly report with the California Public Utilities Commission detailing the progress toward the NEM program limit. This report includes all systems either seeking interconnection or interconnected under the NEM program pursuant to PU Code Section 2827 (e.g., solar, wind, fuel cells using renewable fuels, etc.)
²Complete NEM applications that have been received and are pending authorization to operate from PG&E through the month indicated on this file.
³Includes cumulative installations approved for NEM interconnection since NEM inception in 1996 (does not include systems that terminated NEM interconnection with the utility).

PG&E is providing further information about the available capacity under the NEM Program cap. This information is in addition to the Monthly AB327 NEM Program Limit Report provided above.

Total NEM Requests Pending4 as of 06/05/16 (Total submitted requests pending customer action such as providing final building permit to PG&E)	10,825	440.56 MW
Remaining MWs to NEM Cap Assuming All Pending Requests on the Line Immediately Above Complete Their Projects and Provide PG&E With the Final Building Permits Required To Be Approved for NEM.		0.00 MW

⁴Total pending NEM requests received by PG&E. These pending NEM requests are distinct from the "Total NEM Applications in Queue" reported above, which have submitted completed application packages. Rather, the "Total NEM Request Pending" includes only NEM requests that are pending further applicant actions necessary to complete their NEM Application.

[ltbighorn]

Another week another report!

10.19 additional MW consumed. Up about 10% from last week but still in the 40-50 MW/range. Looking good for my install later this month.
Monthly AB 327 Net Energy Metering (NEM) Program Limit Report¹

Total Available MW Cap		2,409 MW	5% of 48,177 MW
Applications Received in June 2016 as of 06/12/16 (New requests for NEM interconnection)	2,036	15.97 MW
Total NEM Applications in Queue² as of 06/12/16 (Total pending requests for NEM interconnection)	644	15.81 MW
Cumulative NEM Installations³ (Projects approved for NEM interconnection)	252,706	2,079.01 MW
NEM Installations and Pending Applications (Cumulative MW installed under NEM + NEM MW in Queue)	253,350	2,094.82 MW	4.35%
Remaining MW to Cap (NEM Cap minus (Cumulative MW installed under NEM + NEM MW in Queue))		314.18 MW

¹The purpose of this report is to adhere to Public Utilities (PU) Code Section 2827(c)(4)(C), which directs each large electrical corporation to file a monthly report with the California Public Utilities Commission detailing the progress toward the NEM program limit. This report includes all systems either seeking interconnection or interconnected under the NEM program pursuant to PU Code Section 2827 (e.g., solar, wind, fuel cells using renewable fuels, etc.)
²Complete NEM applications that have been received and are pending authorization to operate from PG&E through the month indicated on this file.
³Includes cumulative installations approved for NEM interconnection since NEM inception in 1996 (does not include systems that terminated NEM interconnection with the utility).

PG&E is providing further information about the available capacity under the NEM Program cap. This information is in addition to the Monthly AB327 NEM Program Limit Report provided above.

Total NEM Requests Pending4 as of 06/12/16 (Total submitted requests pending customer action such as providing final building permit to PG&E)	10,597	439.98 MW
Remaining MWs to NEM Cap Assuming All Pending Requests on the Line Immediately Above Complete Their Projects and Provide PG&E With the Final Building Permits Required To Be Approved for NEM.		0.00 MW

[mukg]

Is it too late to sign a solar contract in the PGE service area this week? At this point, I am resigned to going to NEM 2.0.

[ltbighorn]

mukg, I'd say that depends on the condition of your roof and how quickly your solar installer can move. Some installers need many months of lead time, others can work quickly. The one I'm working with in the SF bay area can do the install within ~2 weeks of contract (over the counter permit), with another 2 weeks or so for all inspections/approvals etc to complete. On the other hand, I had to wait 2.5 months for my roofer to redo my roof before the installer could start.

If you look at the rate of consumption in the reports I've been posting, it's been about 50 MW/month with 300+ remaining. At that rate it's 6 months left. There's a good chance the rate of installs will accelerate, but I'd say if you can get it installed and turned on within 2 months, you'd probably make it. If I was schedule for September, I'd be nervous, but it might make it.

Either way, I'd make sure to do my homework over rushing into things, but if you know what you want and how you want it, I'd say no, it's not too late for NEM 1.0, but your options are more limited and you'd need to move relatively quckly.

[Engineer]

Min was completed and permitted within two weeks - maybe a week and a half of signing. Really depends on the installer and inspections.

[ltbighorn]

314.18 MW - 305.05 MW = 9.13 MW this week. On par with previous weeks.
Monthly AB 327 Net Energy Metering (NEM) Program Limit Report¹

Total Available MW Cap		2,409 MW	5% of 48,177 MW
Applications Received in June 2016 as of 06/19/16 (New requests for NEM interconnection)	3,346	27.60 MW
Total NEM Applications in Queue² as of 06/19/16 (Total pending requests for NEM interconnection)	768	13.63 MW
Cumulative NEM Installations³ (Projects approved for NEM interconnection)	253,795	2,090.32 MW
NEM Installations and Pending Applications (Cumulative MW installed under NEM + NEM MW in Queue)	254,563	2,103.95 MW	4.37%
Remaining MW to Cap (NEM Cap minus (Cumulative MW installed under NEM + NEM MW in Queue))		305.05 MW

¹The purpose of this report is to adhere to Public Utilities (PU) Code Section 2827(c)(4)(C), which directs each large electrical corporation to file a monthly report with the California Public Utilities Commission detailing the progress toward the NEM program limit. This report includes all systems either seeking interconnection or interconnected under the NEM program pursuant to PU Code Section 2827 (e.g., solar, wind, fuel cells using renewable fuels, etc.)
²Complete NEM applications that have been received and are pending authorization to operate from PG&E through the month indicated on this file.
³Includes cumulative installations approved for NEM interconnection since NEM inception in 1996 (does not include systems that terminated NEM interconnection with the utility).

PG&E is providing further information about the available capacity under the NEM Program cap. This information is in addition to the Monthly AB327 NEM Program Limit Report provided above.

Total NEM Requests Pending4 as of 06/19/16 (Total submitted requests pending customer action such as providing final building permit to PG&E)	10,717	440.69 MW
Remaining MWs to NEM Cap Assuming All Pending Requests on the Line Immediately Above Complete Their Projects and Provide PG&E With the Final Building Permits Required To Be Approved for NEM.		0.00 MW

⁴Total pending NEM requests received by PG&E. These pending NEM requests are distinct from the "Total NEM Applications in Queue" reported above, which have submitted completed application packages. Rather, the "Total NEM Request Pending" includes only NEM requests that are pending further applicant actions necessary to complete their NEM Application.

[ltbighorn]

This week was higher than average. 16.19 MW, up from 9-11 MW most of the previous weeks. This brings June so far to 45.05 MW with a little under a week remaining in the month. Based on the range of other June weeks, it'll probably land in the area of 53 - 61 MW used for the month, which will leave 280-270 MW remaining. That probably leaves 4-5 months remaining, or 3 conservatively.

Note that while all the data has changed form last week, the dates excluding the main header are still showing 6/19. Seems like they forgot to search and replace all the dates.


Monthly AB 327 Net Energy Metering (NEM) Program Limit Report¹
Data updated as of June 26, 2016

Total Available MW Cap		2,409 MW	5% of 48,177 MW
Applications Received in June 2016 as of 06/19/16 (New requests for NEM interconnection)	5,266	42.96 MW
Total NEM Applications in Queue² as of 06/19/16 (Total pending requests for NEM interconnection)	1,152	19.09 MW
Cumulative NEM Installations³ (Projects approved for NEM interconnection)	255,396	2,101.05 MW
NEM Installations and Pending Applications (Cumulative MW installed under NEM + NEM MW in Queue)	256,548	2,120.14 MW	4.40%
Remaining MW to Cap (NEM Cap minus (Cumulative MW installed under NEM + NEM MW in Queue))		288.86 MW

¹The purpose of this report is to adhere to Public Utilities (PU) Code Section 2827(c)(4)(C), which directs each large electrical corporation to file a monthly report with the California Public Utilities Commission detailing the progress toward the NEM program limit. This report includes all systems either seeking interconnection or interconnected under the NEM program pursuant to PU Code Section 2827 (e.g., solar, wind, fuel cells using renewable fuels, etc.)
²Complete NEM applications that have been received and are pending authorization to operate from PG&E through the month indicated on this file.
³Includes cumulative installations approved for NEM interconnection since NEM inception in 1996 (does not include systems that terminated NEM interconnection with the utility).

PG&E is providing further information about the available capacity under the NEM Program cap. This information is in addition to the Monthly AB327 NEM Program Limit Report provided above.

Total NEM Requests Pending4 as of 06/19/16 (Total submitted requests pending customer action such as providing final building permit to PG&E)	11,614	446.21 MW
Remaining MWs to NEM Cap Assuming All Pending Requests on the Line Immediately Above Complete Their Projects and Provide PG&E With the Final Building Permits Required To Be Approved for NEM.		0.00 MW

⁴Total pending NEM requests received by PG&E. These pending NEM requests are distinct from the "Total NEM Applications in Queue" reported above, which have submitted completed application packages. Rather, the "Total NEM Request Pending" includes only NEM requests that are pending further applicant actions necessary to complete their NEM Application.

[sensij]

CPUC released a final decision on changes to the reporting.

http://docs.cpuc.ca.gov/PublishedDocs/Published/G000/M163/K867/163867698.PDF

It looks like this "Remaining MWs to NEM Cap Assuming All Pending Requests on the Line Immediately Above Complete Their Projects and Provide PG&E With the Final Building Permits Required To Be Approved for NEM." is going away, as all it does is mislead.

[youngesttim]

Interesting that Southern California Edison unlikely to reach cap before July 2017...

[ltbighorn]

Per the CPUC decision sensij linked for us, PG&E reporting format has changed. In addition, they now include a monthly progress chart. Since the monthly growth is now provided by PG&E, I'll probably stop posting updates here. Additionally my own install has been completed and is just awaiting PTO from PG&E.

The reported "Remaining MW to Cap" now only includes approved interconnections, whereas before it included completed applications w/building permit approval that had yet to be approved. As such, the remaining amount appears to increase by ~10 MW. Comparing apples to apples with the previous update (by including completed apps w/building permit approvals) see that 281.48 MW remain, which makes for 7.38 MW reduction in remaining MW in the 4 days (3 business) since the last update. Total for the month is 52.42 MW.

If I do any more updates, then going forward I'll use their new definition of "Remaining MW to Cap", and not include complete apps pending PTO.

With ~13-18 MW in complete-app-but-pending-PG&E-authorization queue, and ~50 MW/month being approved, that suggests about a 1-2 week backlog on approvals.

Looking at the provided monthly data, 515 MW were approved in 2015, 299 MW in 2016 as of June 30th. Monthly approvals have been averaging just above ~50 MW/month in 2016, vs closer to 40 MW/month in 2015 (with a nice Dec 2015 spike of 64.28 MW).

At a rate of 60 MW/month, there'd be just under 5 months (end of November) remaining.
Monthly AB 327 Net Energy Metering (NEM) Program Limit Report¹

Total Available MW Cap		2,409 MW	5% of 48,177 MW
Applications Received in June 2016 (New requests for NEM interconnection)	6,388	53.83 MW
Total NEM Applications in Queue² (Total pending requests for NEM interconnection)	788	17.01 MW
Cumulative NEM Installations³ (Projects approved for NEM interconnection)	256,912	2,110.51 MW	4.38%
NEM Installations and Pending Applications (Cumulative MW installed under NEM + NEM MW in Queue)	257,700	2,127.52 MW
Remaining MW to Cap (NEM Cap minus Cumulative NEM Installations)4		298.49 MW

¹The purpose of this report is to adhere to Public Utilities (PU) Code Section 2827(c)(4)(C), which directs each large electrical corporation to file a monthly report with the California Public Utilities Commission detailing the progress toward the NEM program limit. This report includes all systems either seeking interconnection or interconnected under the NEM program pursuant to PU Code Section 2827 (e.g., solar, wind, fuel cells using renewable fuels, etc.)
²Completed NEM applications that have been received including the final building permit for the NEM generating facility, and are pending authorization to operate from PG&E through the business day indicated on this file. Completed applications, received prior to the date that the number of megawatts in the “Cumulative NEM Installations” category is equal to that in the Total Available MW Cap, that go on to receive permission to operate will be able to take service on the NEM tariff pursuant to PU Code 2827 and will not be required to take service on the NEM Successor tariff.
³Includes cumulative installations approved for NEM interconnection since NEM inception in 1996 (does not include systems that terminated NEM interconnection with the utility). The business day after the number of megawatts in this category is equal to that in the Total Available MW Cap (2409 MW), the NEM program under PU Code 2827 will end and the NEM successor tariff will start for all projects except as provided in footnote 2.
⁴PG&E modifies this line pursuant to D.16-06-040 Ordering Paragraph 7. Here PG&E subtracts the total NEM generating facility MW that have received “permission to operate” from the capacity cap of 2409 MW to show the MW remaining under the Cap. The business day after this number reaches zero, the NEM program will end and the NEM successor tariff will start.

PG&E is providing further information about the available capacity under the NEM Program cap. This information is in addition to the Monthly AB327 NEM Program Limit Report provided above.

Total NEM Requests Pending5 (Total submitted requests pending customer action such as providing final building permit to PG&E)	11,658	452.65 MW

⁵Total pending NEM requests received by PG&E. These pending NEM requests are distinct from the “Total NEM Applications in Queue” reported above, which have submitted completed application packages. Rather, the “Total NEM Request Pending” includes only NEM requests that are pending further applicant actions necessary to complete their NEM Application.


NEM Monthly Growth

These charts show monthly NEM installations that have received permission to operate from PG&E. For the current month, the numbers reflect month-to-date.

Standard NEM*	#	4,805	4,487	4,560	4,892	5,255	5,865	5,883	6,177	6,529	6,307	5,171	7,442	67,373	214,070
MW	26.12	24.79	24.75	26.78	28.55	31.67	31.46	32.58	34.18	33.51	27.83	40.46	362.69	1,073.26
Other	#	85	49	73	71	65	64	51	67	74	80	64	97	840	5,422
MW	14.23	7.14	14.71	10.14	9.78	12.71	8.28	14.34	11.99	13.40	11.96	23.81	152.50	738.04
All	#	4,890	4,536	4,633	4,963	5,320	5,929	5,934	6,244	6,603	6,386	5,235	7,539	68,212	219,491
MW	40.35	31.93	39.46	36.92	38.33	44.38	39.74	46.92	46.17	46.92	39.79	64.28	515.19	1,811.30

Standard NEM*	#	6,386	5,532	6,621	5,750	6,316	6,312							36,917	250,986
MW	34.48	29.20	35.50	30.80	33.32	33.67							196.97	1,270.23
Other	#	81	65	99	91	82	86							504	5,926
MW	15.50	10.40	18.06	20.73	19.02	18.53							102.24	840.28
All	#	6,467	5,597	6,720	5,841	6,398	6,398							37,421	256,912
MW	49.99	39.60	53.55	51.52	52.35	52.20							299.21	2,110.51

*Standard NEM includes solar and/or wind generators 30 kW or less, including NEM aggregation.

[ltbighorn]

Using PG&E's new numbers..

Down from 298.49 MW to 284.89 MW to cap over 6 business days, 9 calendar days, which is 13.6 MW, a slight uptick. They say 7.49 MW of requests were received in July, with 12 MW in the queue waiting for PG&E approval.

Happily, one of those approvals was mine, so I won't be tracking as frequently in the future. However PG&E posts monthly historic numbers now so it shouldn't be necessary.

For anyone still planning to install, I'd suggest aiming to submit for final approval by the end of September. October may make it, but if install rates ramp up then it could miss as well. If rate of consumption doesn't go up at all, then someone in the first couple days of November *might* squeak by. Good luck!