Estimates for the end of Calif NEM 1.0?

[mchen1]

I searched the forum because I thought this would be an existing thread, but didn't come up with anything.

Net Energy Metering as it is today is scheduled to end when the total energy produced through renewable energy hits 617 MW. My concern is because an installer I want to use is stating that new contracts are being scheduled for beginning of March 2016.

I know prediction is folly, but I could use your collective wisdom. At the historical rate of installations (<18 MW per month), March is perfectly fine. But I'm sure installations are ramping up as this cap nears its threshold.

The question for the forum, then, is whether you would schedule an installation for March 2016, or if you would think that is too late.

For quick reference, here is the SDGE page for NEM interconnections: http://www.sdge.com/clean-energy/net...erview-nem-cap

Pulled today:
NEM Program Cap 617 MW
Total Installed 460.5 MW
Remaining MW available under the NEM Program Cap 156.5

All Customers (Solar and Wind only)

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2015 Total
MW 9.3 9.3 11.8 10.2 10.1 16.0 12.5 14.3 16.4 17.7 2.5 0.0 130.0 457.7

Thanks!

[solarz]

Check this thread:

http://www.solarpaneltalk.com/showthread.php?18214-SDG-amp-E-NEM-Cap

[cebury]

The question for the forum, then, is whether you would schedule an installation for March 2016, or if you would think that is too late.

You seem to know the odds of the gamble pretty well. If installations consistently jump 20% every month from here, doubled to 37mW in Feb and 44mW in Mar (omg wow), that is still mid-March closing.

So are you asking would we pull the trigger? I would. But I'd probably piss myself with each coming month.

Most likely I'd find a different vendor, one you could reasonably trust wasn't just trying to make the sale on empty promises. I'd pay up to $500 more if I was reasonably sure they could finish early Feb. Or offer the installer some $$ bonus if they finish before NEM 1.0 closes.

As much as SDGE is hating solar PV, at least the recent CPUC decisions are trying to keep them in check with NEM 1.0 provisions.

March install sounds way too busy IMO, maybe they're just trying to turn down work as it is too hard to plan that far ahead. It's much less busy in central CA as some vendors are still able to estimate by EOY. I think mine should be installed (not PG&E interconnected) with a 3.5 week turnaround though they estimated 5.5 weeks.

[Yaryman]

I searched the forum because I thought this would be an existing thread, but didn't come up with anything.

Net Energy Metering as it is today is scheduled to end when the total energy produced through renewable energy hits 617 MW.
My concern is because an installer I want to use is stating that new contracts are being scheduled for beginning of March 2016.

I know this will not do you any good because you are in San Diego and I'm in the Bay Area, but I have relatives that just signed the contract
and the install is scheduled for two weeks from now. 5 months out if you sign up now. What is the deal with that?

Maybe they need a few more installers.

[J.P.M.]

Although the actual date is dependent on when the cap is hit, as Sensij I (think) suggested, only, that 617 MW cap MAY be hit sometime around May, 2016 or so. I'd suggest that's as good a SWAG as any at this time, but know that it may move back (sooner) as the realization that the door to NEM 1.0 is closing begins to sink in and the rush and unpleasantries begin. I'd be deliberate and not be panicked by fear mongering peddlers, but I'd not sit on my hands either.

I suspect this may get a bit ugly in places.

[cebury]

Although the actual date is dependent on when the cap is hit, as Sensij I (think) suggested, only, that 617 MW cap MAY be hit sometime around May, 2016 or so. I'd suggest that's as good a SWAG as any at this time, but know that it may move back (sooner) as the realization that the door to NEM 1.0 is closing begins to sink in and the rush and unpleasantries begin. I'd be deliberate and not be panicked by fear mongering peddlers, but I'd not sit on my hands either.

I suspect this may get a bit ugly in places.

I seriously doubt that my estimate above for mid March can be exceeded and agree with SensiJ about May. Is there really installer capacity to have near double the amount of current installations per month by Jan and onward at that rate? That would mean a whole lot of idle time right now at existing companies or a glut of trained but unemployed skilled labor like project managers, engineers, electricians, etc. Mandatory overtime can go only so far, as is done at accounting firms during busy season. Obviously laborers to haul panels up the ladder can be had.

[J.P.M.]

I seriously doubt that my estimate above for mid March can be exceeded and agree with SensiJ about May. Is there really installer capacity to have near double the amount of current installations per month by Jan and onward at that rate? That would mean a whole lot of idle time right now at existing companies or a glut of trained but unemployed skilled labor like project managers, engineers, electricians, etc. Mandatory overtime can go only so far, as is done at accounting firms during busy season. Obviously laborers to haul panels up the ladder can be had.

There's currently, and probably, a little theoretical excess capacity in the vendor labor system, if only for the reason vendors need to control labor costs. But if (and maybe as) that excess shrinks, to the degree it exists at all, I'd guess the tendency would be for a tighter labor and install market, with one effect among others, being on prices, but who knows. I still think there's more potential for ugliness over the next 6 months for IOU customers in CA who want to get on NEM 1.0 before the bus leaves. I still wouldn't panic, but it does look to me like time is getting short(er).