Yes, I believe your formula is correct. But the way you wrote it made it as if you're penalized for generating too much (but you're not). So let's simplify it differently. Starting with your formula:
(-250 * peak price) + (400 * off-peak price) + (150 * baseline credit, which is a negative number)
= -250 * (peak price + credit) + 400 * (off-peak price + credit)
this is assuming you're in baseline all the time which is true in your examples.
So scenario 1: -250 * (0.459-0.229) + 400 * (0.360-0.229) = -5.1, or $5.1 in credit
scenario 3: -250 * (0.459-0.229) + 200 * (0.360-0.229) = -31.3, or $31.3 in credit
There you go, penalties disappeared
This simplification means any additional consumption in the off-peak is billed at $0.13/KWh as long as your net consumption is in the baseline. Otherwise, the formulation is slightly different.
(-250 * peak price) + (400 * off-peak price) + (150 * baseline credit, which is a negative number)
= -250 * (peak price + credit) + 400 * (off-peak price + credit)
this is assuming you're in baseline all the time which is true in your examples.
So scenario 1: -250 * (0.459-0.229) + 400 * (0.360-0.229) = -5.1, or $5.1 in credit
scenario 3: -250 * (0.459-0.229) + 200 * (0.360-0.229) = -31.3, or $31.3 in credit
There you go, penalties disappeared
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