Home solar panel system opinion

[downshift00]

Right that's what I figured.

And that is before the incentives, just to make sure...

[gvl]

And that is before the incentives, just to make sure...

[downshift00]

Ok so it's about 5k higher for the system I've been quoted. I'll have to see what a couple other companies quote at.

It seems that a larger system gives a better $/W ratio in general. Here in SoCal about $3.10-$3.20/watt for a 10kW system is doable, not sure about NJ.

[gvl]

Yes I am looking to see what other systems cost. What seems to be the best price for systems nowadays per Watt?

It seems that a larger system gives a better $/W ratio in general. Here in SoCal about $3.10-$3.20/watt for a 10kW system is doable, not sure about NJ.

[downshift00]

Also keep in mid that this usage is based on 1 person in a 2200 Sq ft house. Thus usage will inevitably go up if I have another person living here with me at some future point in time.

Yes I am looking to see what other systems cost. What seems to be the best price for systems nowadays per Watt?

Just as an exercise run the
numbers for a system that only covers the higher priced tiers for your usage. While it likely won't look as good in the best case scenario it will provide a better balance between the risks and savings.

Also shop around more, I suspect you can do better than $3.7/watt on a 10kWh-ish system.

[gvl]

Just as an exercise run the numbers for a system that only covers the higher priced tiers for your usage. While it likely won't look as good in the best case scenario it will provide a better balance between the risks and savings.

Also shop around more, I suspect you can do better than $3.7/watt on a 10kWh-ish system.

[downshift00]

Yes the estimation is for the amounts of SRECs to go down over the 15 years, for example year 1 - $1980, year 5-$1470, year 10-$1035, year 14-$658, year 15-$73. These SRECs only last for 15 years by law I guess. Yes they are volatile, when they first started in 2009 they were trading at about $700 i guess. The more people that have solar the less the amounts become I think?

I didn't go back far as I don't have that data to see how much it has increased over the past 10 years for example. The rates don't seem to go down that's for sure haha. If I keep it a 1% increase a year which is being generous I think, the costs are still 38k for elec company vs 26k for solar with the srecs. Remember this is for 20 years. After that the elec company payments are 22k for years 21-30 where at that point the solar would be free energy right?

How reliable is the 18k over 15 years SREC estimate? A quick search reveals that SRECS are fairly volatile and are likely to further decline with the proliferatioan of solar. Also how far back did you look to estimate 3.2% annual electric rate increase? If these assumptions do not hold over time you may end up with an oversized system which may be just marginally better than just paying your POCO.

[gvl]

How reliable is the 18k over 15 years SREC estimate? A quick search reveals that SRECS are fairly volatile and are likely to further decline with the proliferatioan of solar. Also how far back did you look to estimate 3.2% annual electric rate increase? If these assumptions do not hold over time you may end up with an oversized system which may be just marginally better than just paying your POCO.

[downshift00]

If my current kw usage is 9.6kw a year and the system production covers that amount plus a little extra for less than what I will be paying out of pocket to the electric company how is this bad? I'm trying to understand why I wouln't want to cover all of my electrical usage?

I did an approx 20yr cost with my current electric company using 9.6kw a year with an avg increase of 3.2% a year . It came out to $47k for electric company and $44k for solar. BUT that doesn't take into the SRECs I would be getting for the first 15 years that they estimate at 18k over 15 years. If you take that into account (44k-18k) that is $26k for producing. This also doesn't include any over production I might have, lets say 1kw a year at a buyback rate of .07 a kw isn't much, but it's still $70 x 20 years = $1400. I'm not going to figure that in though due to the solar panels losing .5% efficiency a year.

So to summarize, that's either $47k for currently electric company or $26k in costs for solar for 20 years. Am I missing something still?

Sizing your system is critical. There are a few thoughts of how much of your usage you want to cover. The general consensus is to cover everything above Tier 1 and don't over produce. Why? Because solar is expensive! Your POCO's Teir 1 is probably cheaper than your costs to produce solar.

Crunch the numbers. Determine how many kWhs you will produce w/i 20 years and divide it by how much it will cost you. Compare it to your Tier 1 rate. Also, look at how much your POCO will buy any energy you produce. You'll probably find that it will cost you more to produce than the POCO will buy it for.

[downshift00]

NJ has the SREC http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_R...gy_Certificate . They buy have to give you credit on the open market for whatever your tolal system produces, it's separate from what your overproduction is. So for every 1kw your system generates, they give you approx what its trading on the open market as seen here currently in NJ http://www.srectrade.com/srec_markets/new_jersey for the 1st 15 years of solar production. It phases out completely by years 15.

I'm not familiar with SRECS, any chance they will be discontinued or reduced dramatically over time? Something to think about.

[downshift00]

No, both quotes are before the 30% credit. Financed will be about 26k on both systems approx, but the solar city one is actually a 2k less of a system, 7.8kw vs 9.8kw.

Regarding your quotes, if I'm reading the OP correctly, Solar City wants 40,000/7,800 = $5.13/watt. If this is a standard rooftop installation - ouch, at least considering current pricing in SoCal. Your quote from Direct Energy Solar, is that $37,000 after the incentives? If so it is ouch too.

[gvl]

If my bill with using my current provider is $140-150 a month on average. The rates will be going up, they already have been going up 3-5% over the past few years here. Payments on the 20yr loan is $185 and I would be getting the SRECS on the 9.8kw system which in NJ is over $165 right now a month it seems and also money back from over production of what I don't end up using. I should end up being in the positive every month for quite some time. How is that not a good ROI? The system should pay for itself.

I'm not familiar with SRECS, any chance they will be discontinued or reduced dramatically over time? Something to think about.

[gvl]

Regarding your quotes, if I'm reading the OP correctly, Solar City wants 40,000/7,800 = $5.13/watt. If this is a standard rooftop installation - ouch, at least considering current pricing in SoCal. Your quote from Direct Energy Solar, is that $37,000 after the incentives? If so it is ouch too.

[lkstaack]

If my bill with using my current provider is $140-150 a month on average. The rates will be going up, they already have been going up 3-5% over the past few years here. Payments on the 20yr loan is $185 and I would be getting the SRECS on the 9.8kw system which in NJ is over $165 right now a month it seems and also money back from over production of what I don't end up using. I should end up being in the positive every month for quite some time. How is that not a good ROI? The system should pay for itself.

Sizing your system is critical. There are a few thoughts of how much of your usage you want to cover. The general consensus is to cover everything above Tier 1 and don't over produce. Why? Because solar is expensive! Your POCO's Teir 1 is probably cheaper than your costs to produce solar.

Crunch the numbers. Determine how many kWhs you will produce w/i 20 years and divide it by how much it will cost you. Compare it to your Tier 1 rate. Also, look at how much your POCO will buy any energy you produce. You'll probably find that it will cost you more to produce than the POCO will buy it for.

[downshift00]

If my bill with using my current provider is $140-150 a month on average. The rates will be going up, they already have been going up 3-5% over the past few years here. Payments on the 20yr loan is $185 and I would be getting the SRECS on the 9.8kw system which in NJ is over $165 right now a month it seems and also money back from over production of what I don't end up using. I should end up being in the positive every month for quite some time. How is that not a good ROI? The system should pay for itself.

The question you should ask yourself is if you ever going to get a return on investment for solar that covers your tier 1 usage. The answer is usually never. A good strategy for tiered rates is to size your solar so that your usage is well within the tier 1 rate with solar so you get a faster ROI. 0-offset or better is a beautiful idea but it will take a long time to get your money back

As for pricing, it's usually best to operate using $/watt numbers before any incentives to get a sense if you're getting a good deal. Solar City and the likes are usually the priciest way to get solar.