Newbie question - If solar can only offset 45-50% of power use, is it still worth it?

[hanfrac]

My wife and I want to be responsible and go solar. We are surprised to find that our roof with abundant sun (Menlo Park, CA) can only take enough panels to offset about 45-50% of our electricity consumption. SolarCity came out and offered us a zero money 20 year PPA that would save us about $70 a month, escalating through time as our power would be capped at around $0.18 and would reduce our use of Tier 3/4 power.

We intend to be in the house for the next 8-10 years. I'm scouring online sources to see why saving $70+ a month with no money outlay would be a bad thing (there are people who say "if you don't own it, don't do it"). In our area, I doubt getting a new buy to assume the PPA/lease when we sell will be difficult.

Is there something I'm missing? I've reached out to Sunpower to get a competing quote.

[easye]

There are several threads, one very recent where people don't want to assume your lease. The most recent one I think cost the home owner $30,000 at closing to cover a buy out of the lease. If you purchase the equipment outright, an 8-10 year break even sounds reasonable and it is then an asset to the house. If you end up staying then you have the free power. I'd say taking on a lease for that period of time is more of a risk than a no brainer.

[ericf1]

My wife and I want to be responsible and go solar. We are surprised to find that our roof with abundant sun (Menlo Park, CA) can only take enough panels to offset about 45-50% of our electricity consumption. SolarCity came out and offered us a zero money 20 year PPA that would save us about $70 a month, escalating through time as our power would be capped at around $0.18 and would reduce our use of Tier 3/4 power.

We intend to be in the house for the next 8-10 years. I'm scouring online sources to see why saving $70+ a month with no money outlay would be a bad thing (there are people who say "if you don't own it, don't do it"). In our area, I doubt getting a new buy to assume the PPA/lease when we sell will be difficult.

Is there something I'm missing? I've reached out to Sunpower to get a competing quote.

As many here will tell you, look for ways to conserve first. LED bulbs, insulation, sealing leaks, eliminating "vampire" loads, etc. You might be surprised how much you can reduce your consumption.

Soon, there will be no tier 3/4 in CA, only tier 1/2, and the price difference will be much smaller. Don't base your decision on old tarrifs. Solar City knows this info and is intentionally withholding it from you. Their sales pitch falls apart under the new rates. Also, with TOU rates, you might be able to offset much more than 50% of your bill, though this does not work with a PPA.

As for PPA's and leased systems, do not assume that people will be willing to assume your lease! Read these threads: LA Times: "Leased solar panels can complicate — or kill — a home sale" and Should I Assume A Solar Lease.

Sunpower makes nice panels, and they will allow more production on your limited roof space. They are also significantly more expensive per watt than other top tier panels.

There's lots of information here. Take your time, search and read. Rushing your decision is a mistake.

[J.P.M.]

OP:

Respectfully, before you go further, I'd suggest you buy a book on residential solar and read it. I'd also suggest paying little attention to neighbors who have solar and probably know less about it than you, and certainly less after you read up.

Many think leases are a poor choice, especially with rate reform underway. Leases or PPA's with escalation are even worse. Examine your options carefully then pay your money and take your choice.

Many think Sunpower is very good stuff but also very overpriced for what you get and, except for some space cramped situations, not necessary and not cost effective. Other equipment is as fit for purpose and about 20% less up front on a purchase. Solar equipment is a commodity, not a lifestyle.

As for resale, I'd never buy a house with an existing array on it and I'm a big solar fan and believe I know a bit about the subject. Systems are sized to meet a portion of a load. the size of the load is more a function of the users than the home. Therefore, an existing system will either be too big (the seller will expect more $$), or too small and you'll want bigger due to undersizing. Goldilocks scenarios and existing solar on a resale are usually inconsistent. Rampant solar ignorance only abets the situation. Perhaps folks will be more knowledgeable at the end of your 8 - 10 yr. time horizon and resale values will be negatively influenced by solar. I like the stuff, but not everyone shares my opinion(s). I'm assuming zero salvage value (resale adder) when I pull the plug for gomersville. That way, any resulting surprises in price appreciation will have a greater probability of being pleasant ones.

Like getting the most bang for your $$, if you're really serious about being (environmentally ?) responsible, reduce your use, as fits your lifestyle. That means more than just the usual and mostly feel good changing out lightbulbs to CFL's, etc. (FWIW, forming the habit of turning the damn lights off in the first place when not in use saves as much for less expense).

Most folks do solar primarily to reduce an electric bill. Conservation is much more cost effective than solar, which is about the most expensive way to reduce a bill. Do the cheapest stuff first.

You want to do right for the planet - use less stuff - the planet will be better off and you'll save money, both on your electric bill (smaller), and any resulting solar which will also be smaller (less expensive).

Take what you want of the above. Scrap the rest.

[hanfrac]

Thanks. I'm glad I asked the question. I'll try to find relevant discussions that enlighten me. I think it's a correct characterization that we're impulse shopping and that we're not particularly well informed, that putting some panels up and saving $70 a month sounds good. I did not know that the tiered rate structure is changing and certainly, the SolarCity guy did not volunteer that info.

We have replaced all of our lightbulbs, are trying to reduce our consumption by unplugging things, etc., but finding vampire sources is something we need to do. I just bought a Kill A Watt device off Amazon so we can hunt. I've been concerned for years about how much energy our cable boxes consume.

[insaneoctane]

We have replaced all of our lightbulbs, are trying to reduce our consumption by unplugging things, etc., but finding vampire sources is something we need to do. I just bought a Kill A Watt device off Amazon so we can hunt. I've been concerned for years about how much energy our cable boxes consume.

You've been given some sound advice. Use your kill a Watt and find waste. Also use the "green button" that sce offers (or equivalent if not sce) to review your hourly data from the last year. Finding out how much energy you use in the middle of the night and subtracting out obvious appliances like refrigerators will tell you about your vampire loads. Ideally, you'll be able to explain each and every Watt (give our take a little) that you're using to see if you want to make any changes.

[foo1bar]

My wife and I want to be responsible and go solar. We are surprised to find that our roof with abundant sun (Menlo Park, CA) can only take enough panels to offset about 45-50% of our electricity consumption. SolarCity came out and offered us a zero money 20 year PPA that would save us about $70 a month, escalating through time as our power would be capped at around $0.18 and would reduce our use of Tier 3/4 power.

We intend to be in the house for the next 8-10 years. I'm scouring online sources to see why saving $70+ a month with no money outlay would be a bad thing (there are people who say "if you don't own it, don't do it"). In our area, I doubt getting a new buy to assume the PPA/lease when we sell will be difficult.

Is there something I'm missing? I've reached out to Sunpower to get a competing quote.

Hi "neighbor" - I'm not too far from you.

I'd seriously look at buying.
Most likely you could borrow the $ for the install for cheaper than it'll cost you for a PPA - even if you assume spending $3k on replacing the inverter in 10 years.

Getting a buyer to assume the PPA/lease is probably not a problem in Menlo Park - but it might decrease your sales price or discourage one or two of the multiple offers you'd probably get.

Also - I would look at other than Sunpower or SolarCity. Sure they are well known because they advertise - but you know where the money comes from for that advertising... the customers.
To find other installers, you can try this website:

http://www.solarreviews.com/installers/

(they advertise on this forum - so there's probably some bias from moderators toward them, but looks like a useful resource to me.)

If your bill was $100/mon (without an electric vehicle), I'd have a recommendation for you of a local installer - but since it's not, I don't.

Good luck.

[russ]

My wife and I want to be responsible and go solar.

That statement is not really accurate - one has to assess their own situation and determine whether they are being responsible to themselves in going solar. Solar is great but it does have it's place and is not for everyone.

[Ian S]

I would echo the concerns presented above. Big changes are coming in the rate structure in Cali, so it's quite possible that that $70/mo savings could evaporate quickly. That's especially the case with a PPA or lease that has an escalator built in. Some might consider me a cheerleader for leasing but I'm really not, I just think it can make sense financially under certain conditions e.g. for someone who can't make use of the 30% tax credit. That said, I believe those escalators are a ripoff and would not have one. I think taking over a lease upon home sale could prove to be negative in the negotiations. There's a recent thread which ericf1 linked to where a buyer wound up getting the seller to pay him a significant lump sum in order to take over a Sunpower lease. Unlike J.P.M., I would certainly consider buying a home with an existing solar array. But I would want to see all the details of usage, production, and savings for it. I would also want it carefully inspected. I would be very unlikely to buy a home with a leased system unless I was able to negotiate a significant $$ benefit for taking over that lease.

As for choice of system, you owe it to yourself to look at other vendors and consider financing of a purchase. Sunpower is top quality but most folks around here believe you pay too much of a premium for its advantages. You might be one who can benefit from Sunpower's higher efficiency due to the limited space available. Sunpower also claims to have lower panel degradation over time.

[hanfrac]

Thanks, everyone. I appreciate all of the good info, particularly as it relates to utility rate reform that I was unaware of. One obvious learning is that I can't assume to know how utilities will be setting rates for 20 years. The SolarCity proposal was roughly production at 50% of our current usage at around $0.18 flat for 20 years.

I also really appreciate the comments on not underestimating the difficulty of getting someone to assume a lease or PPA.

We are fortunate to be able to use the 30% tax credit and to have access to a very low cost home equity line if we wanted to use that to finance a purchase. What I've learned so far is that I need to get much more educated about this before pulling any triggers. First things first - I need to call off the SolarCity dogs, who are on me like flies on *&%^&.

I would echo the concerns presented above. Big changes are coming in the rate structure in Cali, so it's quite possible that that $70/mo savings could evaporate quickly. That's especially the case with a PPA or lease that has an escalator built in. Some might consider me a cheerleader for leasing but I'm really not, I just think it can make sense financially under certain conditions e.g. for someone who can't make use of the 30% tax credit. That said, I believe those escalators are a ripoff and would not have one. I think taking over a lease upon home sale could prove to be negative in the negotiations. There's a recent thread which ericf1 linked to where a buyer wound up getting the seller to pay him a significant lump sum in order to take over a Sunpower lease. Unlike J.P.M., I would certainly consider buying a home with an existing solar array. But I would want to see all the details of usage, production, and savings for it. I would also want it carefully inspected. I would be very unlikely to buy a home with a leased system unless I was able to negotiate a significant $$ benefit for taking over that lease.

As for choice of system, you owe it to yourself to look at other vendors and consider financing of a purchase. Sunpower is top quality but most folks around here believe you pay too much of a premium for its advantages. You might be one who can benefit from Sunpower's higher efficiency due to the limited space available. Sunpower also claims to have lower panel degradation over time.

[control4userguy]

My wife and I want to be responsible and go solar. ...

Perhaps the word to be used was "opportunistic"

[J.P.M.]

Thanks, everyone. I appreciate all of the good info, particularly as it relates to utility rate reform that I was unaware of. One obvious learning is that I can't assume to know how utilities will be setting rates for 20 years. The SolarCity proposal was roughly production at 50% of our current usage at around $0.18 flat for 20 years.

I also really appreciate the comments on not underestimating the difficulty of getting someone to assume a lease or PPA.

We are fortunate to be able to use the 30% tax credit and to have access to a very low cost home equity line if we wanted to use that to finance a purchase. What I've learned so far is that I need to get much more educated about this before pulling any triggers. First things first - I need to call off the SolarCity dogs, who are on me like flies on *&%^&.

Be deliberate, but take a bit of time to read, study, think, learn, ask questions and repeat. Knowledge is power. What seems a good deal today, will look different after some education and probably less expensive with some education to aid the negotiations.

[Alisobob]

solar79.JPG

I was filing some documents this morning, and came across this.

On a "average" summertime $487 dollar SCE bill, just Tier 4 alone was $365 of it.


It will be interesting to see where the rates go to when SCE reshufflles the deck.... but Tier 4 used to have quite the sting.

Not any more.....

i_love_solar_power_heart_custom_personalized_sticker-r00c3c178ad7344fca8015c4e64ef80fd_v9wth_8by.jpg

[J.P.M.]

[ATTACH=CONFIG]6402[/ATTACH]

I was filing some documents this morning, and came across this.

On a "average" summertime $487 dollar SCE bill, just Tier 4 alone was $365 of it.


It will be interesting to see where the rates go to when SCE reshufflles the deck.... but Tier 4 used to have quite the sting.

Not any more.....

[ATTACH=CONFIG]6403[/ATTACH]

I'd hang onto that bill and recalc after rate reform for the hell of it. Bet it drops about 15% +/- some, but don't expect the solar peddlers to know or say anything about it.

[gvl]

I wonder how this rate reform is going to reshape solar industry, it will likely lead to thinner profit margins causing many (local) players to go belly up, not to mention the tax credit may be reduced. Still I think now is a good time to get solar while you can still benefit from the current rate structure and the credit.