SDG&E NEM Cap

[sensij]

AB327 requires the existing Net Metering Programs in California to be offered until July 1, 2017, or sooner if net metering represents 5% of the utility's aggregate customer peak demand, as set forth in Public Utilities Code Section 2827. At recent installation rates, SDG&E will hit the cap well before the mid-2017 deadline.

More information on the successor tariff can be found here, and live updates can be had by subscribing to proceeding R1407002 on the CPUC site. The gist of it is that CPUC has creating a public modeling tool to anticipate adoption rates of renewable energy under a variety of scenarios, and will use that to inform their judgement on what the successor tariff becomes. A final version of that tool was released in June.

The scenarios being run have been revised based on the recent rate design ruling, which established some guidelines for tier consolidation and also continued momentum towards default TOU rates.

I intend for this thread to track the cap and tariff development as new information becomes available each month.

Poco------Month------Apps------Alloc.----Left

SDG&E (617 MW cap)

History through 09/14 here

Month	Applications	Allocated	Cap Left	Cap consumed
08/14	8.0	303.2	303.8
09/14	13.4	314.6	292.4	11.4
10/14	13.1	329.0	278.0	14.4
11/14	12.1	349.2	257.8	21.2
12/14	14.3	361.5	245.5	12.3
01/15	12.7	371.8	235.2	10.3
0215	10.8	380.8	226.2	9.0
03/15	15.3	393.3	213.7	12.5
04/15	14.5	397.8	209.2	4.5
05/15	12.7	409.6	197.4	11.8
06/15	18.0	422.0	185.0	12.4
07/15	21.7	438.8	168.2	16.8
08/15	20.0	460.0	147.0	21.2
09/15	14.9	471.6	135.4	11.6
10/15	21.9	490.7	126.3	9.1
11/15	24.5	499.7	117.3	9.0

Projections based on polynomial data fit... May 2016.

Cap increased from 607 MW to 617 MW in the Oct 2015 update.

SDGE Oct.GIF


PG&E (2409 MW cap)
----------08/14-------36--------1177-----1232
----------09/14-------36.8------1206.3---1202.7
----------10/14-------49.4------1241.0---1168.0
----------11/14-------37.0------1279.5---1129.5
----------11/14-------37.0------1274.0---1135.0 (revised)
----------12/14-------45.3------1300.3---1108.7
----------12/14-------45.3------1320.4---1088.6 (revised)
----------01/15-------38.5------1355.5---1053.5
----------02/15-------37.5------1389.7---1019.3
----------03/15-------45.0------1428.7----980.3
----------04/15-------43.6------1462.4----946.6
----------05/15-------49.4------1505.5----903.5
----------06/15-------60.8------1549.5----859.5
----------07/15-------61.3------1587.9----821.1
----------08/15-------89.2------1636.9----772.2
----------09/15-------65.6------1677.3----731.7
----------10/15-------72.8------1726.6----682.4

PG&E should hit the 5% cap in early 2017, unless installation rates start to accelerate.

PG&E revised their November numbers at some point in December, and their December numbers right before the January update.

SCE (2240 MW Cap)
----------08/14-------22.2------881.1-----1359.2
----------09/14-------20.8------902.9-----1337.1
----------10/14--------7.5------930.9-----1309.1
----------11/14-------34.3------951.3-----1288.7
----------12/14-------32.5------978.8-----1261.2
----------01/15-------26.3-----1013.9-----1226.1
----------02/15-------32.4-----1046.1-----1193.9
----------03/15-------28.4-----1083.1-----1156.9
----------04/15-------34.0-----1088.3-----1151.7
----------05/15-------33.2-----1157.4-----1082.6
----------06/15-------46.8-----1204.1-----1035.9
----------07/15-------36.7-----1229.0-----1011.0
----------08/15-------35.9-----1258.3------981.7
----------09/15-------44.2-----1281.4------958.6
----------10/15-------40.9-----1307.3------932.7

SCE will not hit the 5% cap before July 1, 2017 at recent installation rates, but with some acceleration, it might be close.

SCE Note for May:
A small portion of the MW from Applications Received in May, 2015 was estimated to reflect 78 applications that were not entered in the database but were submitted via email. Estimation was necessary due to resource efforts required to process the application volume for April as well as those that were received in May. An average system size (kW) per application was multiplied by the 78 applications and then added to the projects that were entered or submitted to database in May. The average system size was calculated using the applications received or entered in the database through May 2015.

SCE note for April:
The MW from Applications Received in April, 2015 was estimated. Estimation was necessary due to a rise in pending applications for review resulting from a major office relocation of personnel as well as time and effort needed to gain adaptation to the new online application tool. An average system size (kW) per application was multiplied by the actual number of applications submitted through March 31, 2015. The average system size was calculated using the actuals from applications processed from January to March 2015.

SCE note for November, December, and January:
The MW from Applications Received in (current month) was estimated. Estimation was necessary due to a processing backlog resulting from an abnormally high volume of applications. An average system size (kW) per application was multiplied by the actual number of applications submitted through (end of current month). The average system size was calculated using the actuals from applications processed in (previous 3 months).

SCE note for October:
The Applications Received in October, 2014 is lower than previous months due to a high volume of applications which resulted in being several weeks behind in processing. The new applications for the month reflect approximately seven days of October only.

[J.P.M.]

Some further historical info on the pace of the SDG & E rate cap fill:

as of: 12/31/2012 : 158.7 MW filled, 1.31% subscribed, 448 MW to go.
03/31/2013 : 170.7 MW filled, 1.41% subscribed, 436 MW to go.
06/30/2013 : 184.1 MW filled, 1.52% subscribed, 422.7 MW to go.

Sorry info is somewhat sketchy.

At the rate of subscription between 06/30/2013 and 09/30/2014, 5% will be reached in ~ 33 months. I'd expect the pace of installs will pick up as the NEM cap becomes more commonly known, moving the cap date closer. So who knows ? I'd expect an upward pressure on prices as well.

The new tariff(s) on excess generation buyback rates may likely also affect the pace of installs and pricing, depending on the final form it takes.

[thejq]

One thing for sure is that as more and more people install solar, the incentives and special rates (TOU, EV-TOU etc.) will be less generous. After all, utility companies are for-profit organizations. They have the fiduciary duty to increase share holder value, not making the earth a better place to live. They are doing it because of government mandate.

[SunEagle]

One thing for sure is that as more and more people install solar, the incentives and special rates (TOU, EV-TOU etc.) will be less generous. After all, utility companies are for-profit organizations. They have the fiduciary duty to increase share holder value, not making the earth a better place to live. They are doing it because of government mandate.

You are correct. Your statement pretty much covers why Utilities are doing just about everything to meet both the government mandate and yet have profits high enough to keep investors happy.

One of those areas is trying to change the amount of "net metering" they pay you for generation as well as having additional fees for solar grid tie customers. Some of those fees are probably justified to maintain and improve the transmission side of the electric grid. It will get interesting when all the rebates and Tax refunds go away for anyone trying to get a low ROI for their solar investment.

[J.P.M.]

You are correct. Your statement pretty much covers why Utilities are doing just about everything to meet both the government mandate and yet have profits high enough to keep investors happy.

One of those areas is trying to change the amount of "net metering" they pay you for generation as well as having additional fees for solar grid tie customers. Some of those fees are probably justified to maintain and improve the transmission side of the electric grid. It will get interesting when all the rebates and Tax refunds go away for anyone trying to get a low ROI for their solar investment.

"low ROI" ?

[SunEagle]

"low ROI" ?

Duh!!. Must need a second cup of coffer before I reply to these posts.

[J.P.M.]

Duh!!. Must need a second cup of coffer before I reply to these posts.

I'm headed for # 2 (coffee !) myself. FWIW, on the POCO/solar cost horizon, depending on what flushes out w/rate restructure, tax credits etc., I'll probably dump all my solar stocks starting about a year from now +/- some.

[SunEagle]

I'm headed for # 2 (coffee !) myself. FWIW, on the POCO/solar cost horizon, depending on what flushes out w/rate restructure, tax credits etc., I'll probably dump all my solar stocks starting about a year from now +/- some.

Then are you going to put those funds into the "new" battery technology?

[J.P.M.]

Then are you going to put those funds into the "new" battery technology?

Not right away, and probably not all of it, at least not as it looks at this time. More likely drift into more energy ETF w/perhaps emphasis on drilling/nat. gas. It's just business.

[SunEagle]

Not right away, and probably not all of it, at least not as it looks at this time. More likely drift into more energy ETF w/perhaps emphasis on drilling/nat. gas. It's just business.

Interesting investment. Should have gotten into it back in 2009 after they dropped.

[sensij]

Updated SDG&E for October. I haven't followed long enough to know if there is seasonality to this, but based on these most recent months, their cap could be projected to hit a couple months ahead of when the federal tax credit is set to expire. Nice confluence of events.

Updates for the other two companies should be in next week.

[J.P.M.]

Updated SDG&E for October. I haven't followed long enough to know if there is seasonality to this, but based on these most recent months, their cap could be projected to hit a couple months ahead of when the federal tax credit is set to expire. Nice confluence of events.

Updates for the other two companies should be in next week.

Hard for me to spot anything firm. SWAG : more installs in summer than winter with generally increasing installs from same month 1 yr. prior.

FWIW:

Total original MW avail. for cap: 607.

07/31/2014 remaining MW to cap : 294.7

10/31/2014 remaining MW to cap : 278.0

294.7-278 = 16.7 MW --->>> 16.7/3 = 5.6 MW/month for the last 3 months

278.0/5.6 = ~ 50 months to full cap.

HOWEVER - Some comparison to some older data:

As of 07/01/2013: remaining MW to cap = 422.6

--->>> (422.7-278)/16 months = ~ 9.0 MW/month --->>> 278/9 = ~ 30 months to full cap.

So, not an entirely clear picture from the data used here. I'd stick closer to the shorter # for planning purposes if for no other reason that it gives about the same cutoff as the date limit.I'd also keep an eye out, and not be too surprised by some sneaky last minute POCO tricks. After all, it's just business.

[sensij]

Total original MW avail. for cap: 607.

07/31/2014 remaining MW to cap : 294.7

10/31/2014 remaining MW to cap : 278.0

You might want to check your data there, unless you are suggesting only 2.3 MW of cap space was taken between 07/31/14 and the 09/30/14 data in the table I posted.

[J.P.M.]

You might want to check your data there, unless you are suggesting only 2.3 MW of cap space was taken between 07/31/14 and the 09/30/14 data in the table I posted.

I'm not suggesting anything - just repeating the information as published by SDG & E. But to be sure, I just checked what I printed from SDG & E and I'm looking at it as I type this. What they posted and put on the NEM history as of July 31,2014 was "Remaining MW to Cap" = 294.7.

As of 10/31/2014 the same "Remaining MW to Cap" number is listed as 278.

Unless I'm prepared to argue with the POCO, I'll need to accept their #'s. Don't bitch at me, I'm only the piano player on this one.

I suspect any seeming discrepancy may be due to jobs in the queue being reported as finished/not or a lag in approvals or something else buried in the reported number. Maybe the county held stuff up. Maybe ??? whatever. That's why a 12 month running total may be a better indicator of months to cap in one sense, but not as good to spot upcoming change in the rate of installs until its on top of you.

I don't think they archive prior months NEM cap overview sheets for web viewing. That's most of the reason my prior history on the NEM cap is sketchy.

[sensij]

I don't think they archive prior months NEM cap overview sheets for web viewing. That's most of the reason my prior history on the NEM cap is sketchy.

Yeah, something isn't adding up. I took a page from your playbook and gave SDG&E a call, but they will only share current month data. I just put in a document request with CPUC for the last 6 months. They should respond in 10 days or less... maybe more data will help. Your SWAG of more installs in summer than winter sounds reasonable to me, but if the remaining MW only decreased by 2 for all of August and September, then there is another mechanism at work.

I recall looking at the 8/31 update and seeing a cap remaining over 300 MW, but didn't realize at the time that once it updated it would be hard to see again. That was part of the motivation to start this thread.