SDG&E NEM Cap

[albert436]

Thanks JPM.

[J.P.M.]

Thanks JPM.

You're welcome. However:

Sensig (GASP !) is the mentor on this thread. I'm only the echo in this case.

[logdin]

Off topic, any word on SDG&E implementing their new two-tier rate schedule?

found this.... http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2015/...ier-structure/

[J.P.M.]

found this.... http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2015/...ier-structure/

The politicians are, as usual, late to the party. All this has been known since before AB 327 was passed and signed.

[sensij]

February update.

Junk mail in SDG&E territory claiming "Install in the next two months or you may never have this opportunity again" (or something similar) is clearly BS. I can't see the future, but I am certain the remaining cap space will not be depleted in two months. 1.5 years from now, or slightly sooner, appears more likely to me.

[Poway]

SDG&E[/URL] (607 MW cap)
----------08/14--------8.0------303.2----303.8
----------09/14-------13.4------314.6----292.4
----------10/14-------13.1------329.0----278.0
----------11/14-------12.1------349.2----257.8
----------12/14-------14.3------361.5----245.5
----------01/15-------12.7------371.8----235.2
----------02/15-------10.8------380.8----226.2
History through 09/14 here
Average monthly installed capacity over past 6 mo = 12.9 MW, trend is flat.
Months remaining to cap = 235.2 / 12.6 = 17.5, trend is flat.

This site is great! A lot of very helpful data folks are pulling together and pointing out. In this case, I've been told by Three different installers that if the install is not done by June (which with permits etc. would need to start about now) there is a risk and the cap will almost certainly be reached by Sept/Oct. If we look at the SDGE data by over the Years and by month for 2014 to 2015:
NEM_Year.JPG
NEM_month.JPG

It is clear there is no way to reach the cap in this timeline. Number of installers would have to grow by factors >10x.

This conclusion is based on assumption that may also be incorrect (again from installers) that there is no reserving of solar NEM cap but it is only given out at connection. I have been told that in prior years there was a reservation when job first started (because of rebate programs etc.). As long as the installers are right about when NEM allocations are made then clearly good well beyond 2015. (Note: Nothing new here this is the conclusion that Sensij has made much earlier... thank him for pointing out the data...will make me sleep soundly if permits take a few weeks longer etc.)

[J.P.M.]

February update.

Junk mail in SDG&E territory claiming "Install in the next two months or you may never have this opportunity again" (or something similar) is clearly BS. I can't see the future, but I am certain the remaining cap space will not be depleted in two months. 1.5 years from now, or slightly sooner, appears more likely to me.

More echo: Big +++1 on that one.

[sensij]

The public modeling tool for the net metering successor tariff has been released, and the slides showing how it may be used are here. The training workshop is occuring right now.

I don't intend or expect myself or any forum participants to full understand how this thing works. However, I do think it is worthwhile to see a bit more about how the decision making process is made, and understand that these decisions are not arrived at lightly.

[sensij]

March update, no surprises. A little bit of acceleration in installs, but that is expected. My read is unchanged; SDG&E still looks to be on track to hit the deadline around this time next year.

[sensij]

Very little of the cap was allocated in April. We haven't had a month with less than 5 MW new cap allocation since June 2013. We'll see next month if this is an aberration, perhaps related to a backlog in processing, or if the acceleration seen last year is ending. For now, I'm still projecting April 2016, but another month or two like this and I'll have to start pushing my guesses further out.

[Cosmacelf]

Perhaps a silly question, but what happens in SDGE territory when we hit the NEM cap. What happens to new installs after that? Is there a FiT?

[sensij]

Perhaps a silly question, but what happens in SDGE territory when we hit the NEM cap. What happens to new installs after that? Is there a FiT?

It has not been determined yet, and we probably won't really know how the wind is blowing until autumn. FiT is one possibility on the table, but there are many others.

[sensij]

Formal proposals have been made for NEM 2.0.

SDG&E

ORA

SCE

CALSEIA

I have only quickly looked at SDG&E's proposal, as well as ORA's and CALSEIA's. They are at totally opposite ends of the spectrum. CALSEIA says to make no change at all until several years after the federal ITC expires, while SDG&E is ready to jump into fixed capacity charges, demand charges (coincident and non-coincident), and reducing the value of all exported energy to the ~$0.04 / kWh paid now for excess generation.

[J.P.M.]

Looks like we've got some homework to do.

[J.P.M.]

Adding and, as Sensij writes, but perhaps useful to stress, before any CA readers go into panic mode - these are all PROPOSALS by interested parties - the IOU's (POCOs) and CALSEIA (the CA solar industry) - not done deals - YET. PUC rulings are expected in the future.