Thoughts on this SolarCity proposal? **Photos inside**

[SunEagle]

What bank is that? Have you looked at interest rates lately?

Maybe he meant 0.5% and 100 years to get that $14k.

If it was my money I would go with the kyocera system and find ways to reduce my electrical usage so the solar now covers my usage in the high 80% range.

The cheapest way to save money on my electric bill is to just find ways to use less. It costs less to do and will put more money in my pocket.

[J.P.M.]

Finally, I got a couple more quotes for the exact same systems and these companies are all higher than the company that do both system. So It looks like I will go with this one company. Now, I am still struggling on whether to pay a premium for the more power panels. My roof allow up to 35 panels, but the roof is complicated, so only 24 panels that would output the best.

So here it is. The cost for a 24 panel system of sunpower is $26,364 (production is 99%) and a 24 panel system kyocera system of $17,539 (production is 75%). It seems a lot of money difference ($8,828). But I did a little math and correct me if you think I made a mistake here.

Based on their worksheet, my projected saving for kyocera system in 10 years is $35,922 and sunpower is $44,350. Since I am only getting 75% production from Kyocera, my bill projected for the 10 years will be $9,366 and for Sunpower with 99% production is $2,037. Based on this info, if I go with sunpower, my potential saving in 10 years ($44,350-$35,922)+$9,366-$2,037=$15,757. So it seems like it would still make sense to go with Sunpower because say I put the $8,828 in a bank earning a conservative 5% interest rate, at the end of 10 years, it will only be $14,539.

I'd suggest:

1.) Do not use their "worksheet" - those things almost always skew the numbers and assumptions to make what is most profitable for them look like the best deal for you - at best probably biased, or worse, untrue. Probably a lot of truth spinning. Follow the money. It's just business.

Also, FWIW, vendor estimates of annual production are often and usually low by 10% or more. If so, a 99% offset using Sunpower may well produce overgeneration. If you have SREC's, that may be desirable; without SREC's, maybe not. With a 75 % offset using Kyocera, the (perhaps) deliberate oversizing may be tolerable.

2.) It may likely be less cost effective to replace your entire electric load with solar than a partial replacement. There may be many valid reasons for an entire replacement, but cost effectiveness is not guaranteed to be one of them.

3.) Reread prior posts on this thread about historic rate escalation. Also, check out both sides of arguments about where electric rates MAY be headed. Do that and your guess will be as good as anyone else's. Keep an open mind and take your best shot.

4.) After you take your best guess at where you think electric rates are headed, study and learn, in some depth, how your POCO charges you, and something of the time value of money.

Your logic as described above has the right idea, but some of the assumptions are probably off the main stream of thinking, and a few things are left out. An hr. or two spent learning the basics of process economics will pay big dividends. It ain't that big of a deal. If you can +, -, X and /, and/or use a spreadsheet, you're in.

5.) Do your own "worksheet" with numbers based on your own findings with the goal of finding the most cost effective choice for your chosen number of years.

6.) Balance your most cost effective choice against your other non financial priorities and lifestyle choices.

7.) Be deliberate, but take your time and don't be rushed.

The above will give you more, and probably better information that is, based on your findings and in your opinion, the most cost effective for you. It is, however, just like everyone else's information, not much more than a dart throw based largely on speculation about the future - it is not a mandate.

Because it's not a mandate, with your new found and self determined numbers, you can still make a good choice for you that is not the most cost effective. Cost effectiveness is, in the end, only one of many priorities - a big one perhaps, but probably not the only one.

BTW: based on what you determine, deciding solar is not for you at this time is also a choice.

More information and education never hurts, and it certainly does not inhibit one's right to make choices, even ones that other's may think unwise.

[skinnywalletana]

Meant investment

What bank is that? Have you looked at interest rates lately?

Investment of a conservative rate of 5%

[skinnywalletana]

I m trying hard

Maybe he meant 0.5% and 100 years to get that $14k.

If it was my money I would go with the kyocera system and find ways to reduce my electrical usage so the solar now covers my usage in the high 80% range.

The cheapest way to save money on my electric bill is to just find ways to use less. It costs less to do and will put more money in my pocket.

I only turn on the AC when my inside temp reaches 81. And set it to cool down to 79. I would prefer to not limit myself as much and would like to be able to feel a little more comfortable. Have upgraded my lights to LED. But my house is big so it takes a longtime to cool down.

[J.P.M.]

Investment of a conservative rate of 5%

Conservative in what sense ?

[skinnywalletana]

investment

Conservative in what sense ?

If you are to put your money in bonds, stocks, etc. a rate of return of 5% is considered decent, so that is what I based it on, a long term of 10 to 15 years.

[skinnywalletana]

Conservative in what sense ?

I take it you don't think it is a good idea to pay a premium for the sun power panels.

[skinnywalletana]

thanks

I'd suggest:

1.) Do not use their "worksheet" - those things almost always skew the numbers and assumptions to make what is most profitable for them look like the best deal for you - at best probably biased, or worse, untrue. Probably a lot of truth spinning. Follow the money. It's just business. I understand what you are saying. The guy who is selling me the system actually think I should go with the lesser of the two. They actually guarantee the production, or they will pay $.10 per khw under produce.

Also, FWIW, vendor estimates of annual production are often and usually low by 10% or more. If so, a 99% offset using Sunpower may well produce overgeneration. If you have SREC's, that may be desirable; without SREC's, maybe not. With a 75 % offset using Kyocera, the (perhaps) deliberate oversizing may be tolerable. That is what I have been hearing that it may be overproducing, which I think it just great, because I am right now really trying to hold back on turning the AC on and many time I have been very uncomfortable. I wait until the house is 82 degree before turning it on and set it only to 79. I also only turn upstair or downstair on, but hardly ever both. My house is big, so it takes a lot longer to cool.

2.) It may likely be less cost effective to replace your entire electric load with solar than a partial replacement. There may be many valid reasons for an entire replacement, but cost effectiveness is not guaranteed to be one of them. You don't think so with the math calculation I did?

3.) Reread prior posts on this thread about historic rate escalation. Also, check out both sides of arguments about where electric rates MAY be headed. Do that and your guess will be as good as anyone else's. Keep an open mind and take your best shot. I know electric rate is continuing to go up, and based on my last two year, my usage has been double even though I have tried to do little things to help use less like changing all my lights to LED. Electric rates have also risen so it is double whammy.

4.) After you take your best guess at where you think electric rates are headed, study and learn, in some depth, how your POCO charges you, and something of the time value of money. I felt I have read so much and now it just matter of negotiating some more with the one company.

Your logic as described above has the right idea, but some of the assumptions are probably off the main stream of thinking, and a few things are left out. An hr. or two spent learning the basics of process economics will pay big dividends. It ain't that big of a deal. If you can +, -, X and /, and/or use a spreadsheet, you're in. Did that. Thought it made sense, doesn't it?

5.) Do your own "worksheet" with numbers based on your own findings with the goal of finding the most cost effective choice for your chosen number of years. did that. In 15 years, again based on the projected number, I will be saving about $28K in electric bill.

6.) Balance your most cost effective choice against your other non financial priorities and lifestyle choices. Based on all the info I gathered, it seems to make sense.
7.) Be deliberate, but take your time and don't be rushed. I felt I have done enough research and getting estimates.

The above will give you more, and probably better information that is, based on your findings and in your opinion, the most cost effective for you. It is, however, just like everyone else's information, not much more than a dart throw based largely on speculation about the future - it is not a mandate.

Because it's not a mandate, with your new found and self determined numbers, you can still make a good choice for you that is not the most cost effective. Cost effectiveness is, in the end, only one of many priorities - a big one perhaps, but probably not the only one.

BTW: based on what you determine, deciding solar is not for you at this time is also a choice. understood.

More information and education never hurts, and it certainly does not inhibit one's right to make choices, even ones that other's may think unwise.

thanks again.

[J.P.M.]

If you are to put your money in bonds, stocks, etc. a rate of return of 5% is considered decent, so that is what I based it on, a long term of 10 to 15 years.

I thought you were referring to bank interest.

[J.P.M.]

I take it you don't think it is a good idea to pay a premium for the sun power panels.

I am of the opinion that unless you are cramped for space, Sunpower is worth a 5 or so % up front premium. Much more than that and I'd have a hard time justifying their use from a cost effectiveness standpoint. One reason for my opinion: Check out a website called PVoutput.org and compare similar sized systems using different panels in similar orientations near to one another. You'll see what I mean about equal output for equal size, pretty much regardless of panel mfr.

[skinnywalletana]

you are right about that...for most of the panels

I am of the opinion that unless you are cramped for space, Sunpower is worth a 5 or so % up front premium. Much more than that and I'd have a hard time justifying their use from a cost effectiveness standpoint. One reason for my opinion: Check out a website called PVoutput.org and compare similar sized systems using different panels in similar orientations near to one another. You'll see what I mean about equal output for equal size, pretty much regardless of panel mfr.

you have to own a system to be able to do that or do you just need to know the panel model?

I was given a quote for an LG 300 panels, but I have read up so much on panels and Sun power is expensive but they warranty 25 years and rated at the top. Don't know much about LG. LG and the others warranty 10 years. Our roof is complicated but can accommodate 35. to be most effective, only 24 panels really should be on there and I think LG 300 is bigger size so may only get 22. The other 11 would face west, which will produce less. I can't remember the exact word or term, but the Sunpower panel is equivalent in size of the Kyocera, but it produce more. the 24 panels system for Sun power is 7.848 kwh vs 24 panels system for Kyocera 6.0 kwh.

[J.P.M.]

you have to own a system to be able to do that or do you just need to know the panel model?

I was given a quote for an LG 300 panels, but I have read up so much on panels and Sun power is expensive but they warranty 25 years and rated at the top. Don't know much about LG. LG and the others warranty 10 years. Our roof is complicated but can accommodate 35. to be most effective, only 24 panels really should be on there and I think LG 300 is bigger size so may only get 22. The other 11 would face west, which will produce less. I can't remember the exact word or term, but the Sunpower panel is equivalent in size of the Kyocera, but it produce more. the 24 panels system for Sun power is 7.848 kwh vs 24 panels system for Kyocera 6.0 kwh.

1.) The short answer is no. Simply go to the net, plug in PVOutlet.org., follow the bouncing ball, root around some, and learn.

2.) I'd suggest rereading my prior posts.

3.) To reiterate some stuff about S.P.

- Most equally sized systems - equal Wattage systems - will produce, initially, about equal yearly output in the same orientation and service. That's what affects your electric bill - not physical size. Sunpower equipped systems simply do that with a SMALLER FOOTPRINT. A 5 kW S.P. equipped system will produce about the same yearly output as a 5 kW LG system. THE MAIN AND PROBABLY ONLY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE S.P. EQUIPPED SYSTEM WILL DO IT BY TAKING UP LESS SPACE. (And probably costing more up front for about the same bill reduction).
- If you (think) you're cramped for space, S.P. MAY have another advantage. However, I'd keep in mind that peddlers often and usually underestimate system performance to oversell equipment, meaning you may not be as cramped for space as you've been led to believe, especially if the system performance was underestimated. The solar ignorant are usually clueless about this and wind up with oversized and less cost effective systems.
- S.P. has an arguably better warranty. It may even be a slightly better product. Mercedes is arguably a better car than Toyota. Both are equally good grocery haulers. Solar is an appliance, not a lifestyle. IMO, The Sunpower warranty is, in most situations overkill, and oversold. Warranties on other panels are probably adequate for most applications.
- The lower degradation rate of S.P. production yr./yr. is a nice, but as yet unconfirmed claim. Using what are (as a matter of some opinion) reasonable and perhaps conservative guesses for the inputs like future interest rates, utility rates, maint. requirements, etc, the actual #'s for economic benefit over 25 years for that lower degradation over 25 yrs. (if correct) is something like about a 5% or so lowering of the LCOE, making a 5% premium for S.P. perhaps economically justifiable.

For those alleged benefits, S.P. garners something like a 10 to 25 % premium over other equally sized systems using other quality products, depending on the situation and bargaining skills of the buyer.

It's a free country. Pay your money, take your choice. Just don't believe everything you read or hear.

3.) Many people have their mind made up on a purchase before they do their homework and are often looking for little more than reinforcement for what they've already decided - someone, or something to tell them how smart they are. Product hype and peddlers, among other things, perform that function very well, and reinforce that decision. For the most part, people see what they want to see and hear what they want to hear.

Buy what you want. Smart people walk in informed with their eyes open. Buying more than necessary, either quality or quantity wise to accomplish a task is not cost effective. Do your own homework and don't rely on someone with skin in the game for answers.