Thoughts on this SolarCity proposal? **Photos inside**

[Rdjntx]

Over production is when you produce more during the day than you use. How that is handled will depend on your agreement with your utility.

1. Net metering - The electric company pays you for your over production at the same rate you buy it from them when your system is not producing.

2. Simple buy back - the electric company pays you for your over production but at a wholesale rate which is much less than what you pay them when your system is not producing

3. None of the above - i.e. you over produce, they get the benefit and pay you nothing

Which method used will depend on which POCO you have and what is or is not mandated by state law.

The electric company I currently use combines both method 1 and 2. They pay me the same as I pay for the first 900kw per month after that they pay me 50% of that rate. I usually wind up with either a zero bill or a credit. jun, jul, and aug will be the months I have a small elec bill if any.

I think I have those correct. I am sure others will come in and correct where I have it wrong

Thanks guys,

can someone please explain the premise of "overproduction" for me

I was under the impression that if the system makes too much power then its fed back into the grid and I get a credit.

how can I be screwed by the sytem overproducing?



thank you guys so much for the responses!

[Tyler]

Thanks guys,

can someone please explain the premise of "overproduction" for me

I was under the impression that if the system makes too much power then its fed back into the grid and I get a credit.

how can I be screwed by the sytem overproducing?



thank you guys so much for the responses!

Our electric company buys it back from us once a year at .04 (last years rate) and I am paying .07 for solar produced. Not in my best interest to sell back a lot to the electric company. My system is sized to produce enough to cover all of my electric needs for 7 months a year and 5 months a year I will have a small bill. Our electric company trues up in April so over producing in the other months doesn't benefit me. If they trued up in December or January producing more in the winter would benefit me as I could push the extra over my higher months.

[thejudge]

here is another attachment of the "simple" breakdown

solar7.JPG

[russ]

here is another attachment of the "simple" breakdown

[ATTACH=CONFIG]4527[/ATTACH]

Maybe yes and maybe no - all assumptions and no basis given.

[J.P.M.]

here is another attachment of the "simple" breakdown

[ATTACH=CONFIG]4527[/ATTACH]

For starters, I'd question the utility rates used given a 2.9%/yr. lease payment increase. Also, the future of rates is not written yet but the 4.8% annual increase the vendor is using is historically inaccurate and logically unjustifiable. finally, those costs /kWhr. seem to have little to do with the LCOE (Levelized Cost Of Electricity). Your money - your choice.

[prhamilton]

You can see that they are targeting 95% solar for you which may be more than you need. When I got solar I was targeting 80% replacement. What I found is that output estimates are generally more conservative and I ended up producing about 10% more than estimated, this is based on my first 3 months of usage.

I think it is smart to leave yourself a little wiggle room so that you can reduce your usage and reap the savings. If you size this system too large you are entering into an agreement to buy that much power for 20 years. As kids get older, appliances get replaced and technology improves, I hope to see my power usage go down over time. Only you can estimate your future usage. If you have some old appliances that you know are energy hogs then it might be a good idea to replace them before solar or at least reduce the solar system size to account for the eventual lower usage. When you buy(or lease) solar, you are locking in your consumption for 20 years best to give yourself a little margin for error.

[thejudge]

You can see that they are targeting 95% solar for you which may be more than you need. When I got solar I was targeting 80% replacement. What I found is that output estimates are generally more conservative and I ended up producing about 10% more than estimated, this is based on my first 3 months of usage.

I think it is smart to leave yourself a little wiggle room so that you can reduce your usage and reap the savings. If you size this system too large you are entering into an agreement to buy that much power for 20 years. As kids get older, appliances get replaced and technology improves, I hope to see my power usage go down over time. Only you can estimate your future usage. If you have some old appliances that you know are energy hogs then it might be a good idea to replace them before solar or at least reduce the solar system size to account for the eventual lower usage. When you buy(or lease) solar, you are locking in your consumption for 20 years best to give yourself a little margin for error.

very good point. The house was built 2 years ago so its very efficient, newest appliances, lighting etc. I'll do an energy audit and see if I can find some parasites before I agree to lock in anything.
Perhaps I could change my exterior timer lights to LED instead of CFL.

Its amazing how they push everything according to current usage, they never speak about what if it goes down.

thank you

[J.P.M.]

very good point. The house was built 2 years ago so its very efficient, newest appliances, lighting etc. I'll do an energy audit and see if I can find some parasites before I agree to lock in anything.
Perhaps I could change my exterior timer lights to LED instead of CFL.

Its amazing how they push everything according to current usage, they never speak about what if it goes down.

thank you

Or if utility rate increases aren't as high as their ridiculously high projections.

[Rdjntx]

very good point. The house was built 2 years ago so its very efficient, newest appliances, lighting etc. I'll do an energy audit and see if I can find some parasites before I agree to lock in anything.
Perhaps I could change my exterior timer lights to LED instead of CFL.

Its amazing how they push everything according to current usage, they never speak about what if it goes down.

thank you

Something else to keep in mind that I rarely, if ever, see mentioned. Once your panels are installed, move all of your optional electrical usage you can to times when you are generating power. Things like your dishwasher, washing machine / dryer anything that you can possibly run during the day.

[J.P.M.]

Something else to keep in mind that I rarely, if ever, see mentioned. Once your panels are installed, move all of your optional electrical usage you can to times when you are generating power. Things like your dishwasher, washing machine / dryer anything that you can possibly run during the day.

Depending on your rate structure, that can be counterproductive. If a T.O.U. rate structure credits generation at prime time (peak) rates, the trick would be to move as much usage as possible to min. (off peak) rate time, and live like a hermit during the day (peak) time. Some POCO's do that, some don't.

At the extreme this involves a lifestyle shift to doing things like laundry at 3 A.M., etc. Most folks who time shift are not quite that draconian about it, but that's the general idea.

Utilities are responding to this by shifting their peak times to later hours - say from 10 A.M. to 5 P.M., and shifting that to, say, from 11 A. M. to 7 P.M. or such.

Most POCO rate structures have quirks, and general statements and assumptions can cause problems and confusion. As usual, the best way to get accurate info is probably the hardest - dig in and do the homework.

[Rdjntx]

Point taken. I had forgotten the OP is leasing and not buying his system. leasing throws a big old wrench into what I said.

I think my comment really only applies to purchased systems since you are not paying for what you produce.

Depending on your rate structure, that can be counterproductive. If a T.O.U. rate structure credits generation at prime time (peak) rates, the trick would be to move as much usage as possible to min. (off peak) rate time, and live like a hermit during the day (peak) time. Some POCO's do that, some don't.

At the extreme this involves a lifestyle shift to doing things like laundry at 3 A.M., etc. Most folks who time shift are not quite that draconian about it, but that's the general idea.

Utilities are responding to this by shifting their peak times to later hours - say from 10 A.M. to 5 P.M., and shifting that to, say, from 11 A. M. to 7 P.M. or such.

Most POCO rate structures have quirks, and general statements and assumptions can cause problems and confusion. As usual, the best way to get accurate info is probably the hardest - dig in and do the homework.

[J.P.M.]

Point taken. I had forgotten the OP is leasing and not buying his system. leasing throws a big old wrench into what I said.

I think my comment really only applies to purchased systems since you are not paying for what you produce.

Depending on the rate scheme and how much of the annual load is offset, leasing or buying may make little or no difference in the logic. The load time shifting logic is the same for many utility schemes/situations. Not all POCO's have the same net metering/T.O.U policies. As a general statement, most are different. Depending on the situation, a lease w/a planned 100+% offset may or may not make time shifting worthwhile. Same for a purchased system.

[prhamilton]

I found this last night on NREL website. It is the 25 year average escalation rates for different regions of the US. The summary is that across the US over the last 25 years the escalation rate is below 1%. One caveat is that these rates are commercial and I don't know how that relates to residential rates.

us_map_cost_escalations_title.pdf

Makes me question using 5% or even 3% in any ROI assumption.

[J.P.M.]

I found this last night on NREL website. It is the 25 year average escalation rates for different regions of the US. The summary is that across the US over the last 25 years the escalation rate is below 1%. One caveat is that these rates are commercial and I don't know how that relates to residential rates.

us_map_cost_escalations_title.pdf

Makes me question using 5% or even 3% in any ROI assumption.

I've seen this more than once and it exposes the peddlers crap about bogus rate escalation for the B.S. that it is.

A couple/3 comments:

1.) The residential side is a bit higher, but still generally between 1-2 %. My guess for part of that situation is that while companies do usually use more power than residential users, they also keep a better handle on costs and apply some rate pressure on POCOs.

2.) The peddlers and opinion spinners will say something like: " Yea, but that's for 25 years, look at the last 3, or look at the last 10 years." Or, "Over the last 25 yrs. your rates have gone up 65%" - which translates to 2% compounded annually, but looks worse.

3.) a figure for average rate increase over past years is not only no guarantee of the future, but an average is usually much different than any particular year's increase.

[njguy]

I wanted to like Solar City when they gave me my quote but just thought it was a bit shady compared to others. They guy was nice and all but they wanted to install panels on the northwest facing side of my house which basically gets no sun in New Jersey from December through February. Just felt they were trying to do that to boost price.