Sun hours

[DanS26]

And the rain goes on......

It was already heavily overcast, but in the afternoon the sprinkles got really serious.
It got so dark, the inverters shut down, which rarely happens days. What surprised me,
is after the heavy rain and the inverters came back on, the readings for the day were
carried through, not reset. Running at 30%, managed 44 KWH, but the prediction is
for 2 all out sunny days. We shall see. Bruce Roe

Same thing happened to me for the first time. It got so dark in the middle of the day that the inverters shut down. Very unusual for SE Indiana.

We had a hail storm...3/4 inch hail..no damage but I was on pins and needles as we took a pounding. Kyocera panels rated for 1" hail and came through with flying colors.

[bcroe]

Rain

And the rain goes on......

It was already heavily overcast, but in the afternoon the sprinkles got really serious.
It got so dark, the inverters shut down, which rarely happens days. What surprised me,
is after the heavy rain and the inverters came back on, the readings for the day were
carried through, not reset. Running at 30%, managed 44 KWH, but the prediction is
for 2 all out sunny days. We shall see. Bruce Roe

[SunEagle]

...... At this time however, propane storage seems a much more settled proposition than electrical energy storage in spite of all Mr. Musk seems to be doing to convince us to the contrary.

That is because he has not invested in either the natural or bottle gas industry (yet).

[J.P.M.]

Those numbers look good. However, here my heat pump multiplies my KWH by 2 or 3 most of the year, so that is
the way I go. I haven't forgotten 17 months ago, in the midst of the coldest winter I have ever experienced, that
the (artificially created) propane shortage caused prices of $5 a gallon. I wonder how many people noticed, they
could save a lot with plain resistance heaters at that point? Guess you could get a tank large enough
to ride through the winter; I had to use resistance heat when night air was well below zero.

My goal is to be free of the electric and fuel price roller coaster, and to minimize the number of utilities I am paying
monthly connect fees to. At the very least, being flexible about which energy source to use is good. And running
a "science project" can be fun. Bruce Roe

As long as you can live with the idea and expense of having two sources of energy for DHW and space heating (electricity and propane it seems), enjoy the ride. It may be worth noting that some of the advantages of large propane storage facilities are somewhat analogous to large electricity storage. At this time however, propane storage seems a much more settled proposition than electrical energy storage in spite of all Mr. Musk seems to be doing to convince us to the contrary.

[DanKegel]

But now that propane is the cheapest form of energy (not counting wood), I'll probably switch back to heating my house and my water with propane as long as the price stays under $1.75 a gallon.

Sssh, don't give away your price point, or the enviros will levy a $0.75/gallon carbon tax on propane to get you to change your behavior

[DanS26]

...... Guess you could get a tank large enough
to ride through the winter......

Yes, that's what I did, in fact I bought two 1000 gal tanks....a multi-year supply. Propane stores well and I also use it for my back up generator.

Last year I installed a Steffes ETS (electric thermal storage) system. I charge the unit from 10am to 2pm and then discharge the unit anytime I need the heat. That soaks up a lot of my excess kWh and makes sense for me since I am on a net billing system. In your case and anyone on net metering it does not make sense, since a kWh used or sold anytime is the same price, thus timing is not an issue.

Also installed a Nyle heat pump water heater, also set up on a timer to run in daylight hours only.

But now that propane is the cheapest form of energy (not counting wood), I'll probably switch back to heating my house and my water with propane as long as the price stays under $1.75 a gallon.

[bcroe]

Bruce, enjoy very much your energy manipulation saga.

I overproduce also, but unlike you I get to sell my excess to a REMC that pays me ~$.07 per kWh. They settle up once a year at the end of March...just received a $350 check for last year's net overproduction.

So I am constantly looking at whether it is better to sell @ 7 cents or to use the excess internally. Just recently the price of propane has dropped to $1 per gallon here in Indiana. My back of the envelope calc says that I should burn propane to heat my house this winter and sell kWh. A gallon of propane is 83,400 BTUs and a kWh is 3,413 BTUs. If my math is correct then a gallon of propane is worth 24.4 kWh or $1.71 which is substantially higher than the $1 per gallon of propane. Of course there are inefficiencies that are not factored in but not enough to over come the huge price differential.

Those numbers look good. However, here my heat pump multiplies my KWH by 2 or 3 most of the year, so that is
the way I go. I haven't forgotten 17 months ago, in the midst of the coldest winter I have ever experienced, that
the (artificially created) propane shortage caused prices of $5 a gallon. I wonder how many people noticed, they
could save a lot with plain resistance heaters at that point? Guess you could get a tank large enough
to ride through the winter; I had to use resistance heat when night air was well below zero.

My goal is to be free of the electric and fuel price roller coaster, and to minimize the number of utilities I am paying
monthly connect fees to. At the very least, being flexible about which energy source to use is good. And running
a "science project" can be fun. Bruce Roe

[DanS26]

Bruce, enjoy very much your energy manipulation saga.

I overproduce also, but unlike you I get to sell my excess to a REMC that pays me ~$.07 per kWh. They settle up once a year at the end of March...just received a $350 check for last year's net overproduction.

So I am constantly looking at whether it is better to sell @ 7 cents or to use the excess internally. Just recently the price of propane has dropped to $1 per gallon here in Indiana. My back of the envelope calc says that I should burn propane to heat my house this winter and sell kWh. A gallon of propane is 83,400 BTUs and a kWh is 3,413 BTUs. If my math is correct then a gallon of propane is worth 24.4 kWh or $1.71 which is substantially higher than the $1 per gallon of propane. Of course there are inefficiencies that are not factored in but not enough to over come the huge price differential.

[bcroe]

Interesting, in the months before my array went active, we had hot, sunny drought which lasted so long, it killed a
couple dozen of my trees. It seems like, as soon as the array switched on, the weather turned cloudy, and that has
continued a couple years now. I have yet to see peak production with a clear day in June.

Since I have been running like 83%, maybe I just need to bump up the number of panels by 20%. Bruce Roe

[bcroe]

Rainy Day Energy

Today we got 1/2 inch of rain, starting at 1300 sun time. But it didn't get very dark, the array delivered 80% of
maximum possible KWH for Mon. Time of day isn't a critical thing here, since power is fairly flat much of the day.
Bruce Roe

[bcroe]

2014/15 PV Year

The April PoCo bill came; I now have complete info on the first full year of PV grid
connect operation here in northern ILL, land of clouds & snow (but NO forest fires,
earthquakes, water shortages, emissions inspections, Ag construction permits,
electrical black outs, mud slides, outrageously expensive real estate, $5 gasoline,
etc).

I now have 13 months in a row with 0 KWH billed. Not everyone will approve of that,
but the house stayed nice and warm without any uncomfortable "conservation". Only
a bit of propane added when temperatures went well below zero at night. All the rest
is heat pump down to about 10 deg F, and resistance heat below that.

The 15 KW inverters cranked out an annual generation of 27,800 KWH, or 76.1 KWH
per day, or on average 5.07 sun hours per day. That, through all the clouds we have
(didn't see the sun for 27 days in a row in Dec, made 1000 KWH anyway). The worst
days production was 5 KWH; the best was 148 KWH.

This April production was nearly identical to a year ago, 97 KWH per day. What is
different, is a heat pump is keeping the house warm. Instead of using 1411 KWH
at night, I only used 653 KWH; outflow days was up also. The annual reserve built
up in April last year was 174 KWH; this year its 1351 KWH. A nice beginning
for 2015/16.

There are still PV shading issues which can be improved, and needed is an easy way
to change panel tilt for winter snow. Perhaps with panels in just the right position,
annual production can exceed 30,000 KWH. Preliminary drawings already exist.

Some conservation is still going on; if there is enough reserve, the shop building
will probably start using a new heat pump to stay above freezing at all times. I
might try that experiment of feeding some DC direct to a Mini Split. To work in
winter the shop will need a quick propane zap up to 65 F. Bruce Roe

[DanKegel]

So for the precursor to the sanity check: Do you have an idea of what your actual usage is, say, for the last 12 months ? That's usually where a lot of conservation analysis begins.

Yep. Here's a summary of 2013 and 2014 usage, plus way too much other info
(not sure how much I trust the energy audit part):

2013:
Craftsman house built ~1910
4550 square feet
89 windows (only 14 double-paned), total area 600 square feet
Two gas furnaces, 125,000 BTU/h each
About 60 x 60W incandescent light bulbs (+ 6 CFLs)
2013 heating degree days: 1501
2013 electric, gas use: 16960 kwh / $5,235.29, 1334 therms / $1,600.88

2014:
All incandescents and CFLs replaced with 6-9W LEDs during summer
Leaky old refrigerator replaced 10/2014
Leaky old dishwasher replaced 11/2014
Daily KWH use dropped as a result from ~40 to ~20
2014 heating degree days: 1037
2014 electric, gas use: 11609 kwh / $2050.43, 948 therms / $1,259.44

energy audit 2/2015:
Blower door test leakage:
20,549 CFM50
estimated 1.58 ACHnat (ASHRAE target 0.35)
Duct test leakage at CFM25
upstairs: 26% leakage
downstairs: 75% leakage (return via unsealed wall cavities)
Modelled heating losses last year (BTU/h)
Air Leakage 43,823 (27%)
Walls 34,456 (21%)
Windows / Doors 28,415 (17%)
Attic Insulation 23,626 (14%)
Duct Leakage and Insulation 19,734 (12%)
Floor 10,256 (6%)
Total 160,310
Modelled cooling losses last year (BTU/h):
Windows / Doors 48,458
Attic Insulation 32,485
Air Leakage 20,407
Walls 16,133
Floor 3,525
Total 121,008
Potential Energy Load Reduction by Improvement Project (%)
Wall Insulation 16.2
Air Sealing 16.1
Duct Upgrade 10.6
Window Upgrade 9.4
Floor Insulation 6.9
HVAC Upgrade ?
Attic Insulation 2.6
Water Heater Upgrade ?

[J.P.M.]

Yeah, posted that in the middle of the night after my dog woke me up to warn me of raccoons,
realized the math error as I was going back to sleep.
1/3 x 2 = 2/3, not 1.5. So this crude measure gives 20,000 KWH/year as my needs.
My array should generate 75% of that. Sanity check passed.

About the heat pump... I don't have air conditioning, and my wife really wants it;
replacing the furnace with a heat pump kills two birds with one stone.
So it's not just to reduce carbon emissions, it's also to increase comfort.
I would probably set it to never turn on the resistance strips.

I'm totally onboard the efficiency-first, right-sized HVAC train, have
done an energy audit, discussed it elsewhere on this board. Waiting for
tax refund to start the next step along the path.

So for the precursor to the sanity check: Do you have an idea of what your actual usage is, say, for the last 12 months ? That's usually where a lot of conservation analysis begins.

[bcroe]

About the heat pump... I don't have air conditioning, and my wife really wants it;
replacing the furnace with a heat pump kills two birds with one stone.

Most furnaces allow an air conditioner/heat pump to just plug in past the
burners; you will need a blower in any case. Bruce Roe

[DanKegel]

Yeah, posted that in the middle of the night after my dog woke me up to warn me of raccoons,
realized the math error as I was going back to sleep.
1/3 x 2 = 2/3, not 1.5. So this crude measure gives 20,000 KWH/year as my needs.
My array should generate 75% of that. Sanity check passed.

About the heat pump... I don't have air conditioning, and my wife really wants it;
replacing the furnace with a heat pump kills two birds with one stone.
So it's not just to reduce carbon emissions, it's also to increase comfort.
I would probably set it to never turn on the resistance strips.

I'm totally onboard the efficiency-first, right-sized HVAC train, have
done an energy audit, discussed it elsewhere on this board. Waiting for
tax refund to start the next step along the path.