Obviously you have more experience than I do russ, but part of the reason for considering a system for the home here is that you know what your return will be. Even if it might not be as high as in other areas, you still are getting a decent return. For example, I just refinanced my mortgage at 3.5% rather than pay down my house more. As long as I can beat 3.5% on an investment I am coming out ahead, so if I get a 5.5% return on a solar system on my own home it's a sure bet versus investing in other ways. Already have enough exposure. It's hard to "lose" this way.
I also think that your inputs are a little off there. Microinverters are more efficient than the numbers you are using and the power rate is half what I pay. I think your point is well taken though, if this was purely being done as an investment there might be better places to put your money for sure... But when you already have risk elsewhere and you have some cash laying around, it can work depending on your situation.
Jeremy
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PV Watts data for Seattle
Station Identification"
"City:","Seattle"
"State:","Washington"
"Lat (deg N):", 47.45
"Long (deg W):", 122.30
"Elev (m): ", 122
"PV System Specifications"
"DC Rating:"," 1.0 kW"
"DC to AC Derate Factor:"," 0.770"
"AC Rating:"," 0.8 kW"
"Array Type: Fixed Tilt"
"Array Tilt:"," 47.5"
"Array Azimuth:","180.0"
"Energy Specifications"
"Cost of Electricity:"," 6.4 cents/kWh"
"Results"
"Month", "Solar Radiation (kWh/m^2/day)", "AC Energy (kWh)", "Energy Value ($)"
1, 1.54, 33, 2.11
2, 2.50, 50, 3.20
3, 3.71, 84, 5.38
4, 4.37, 96, 6.14
5, 5.31, 118, 7.55
6, 5.52, 117, 7.49
7, 5.88, 127, 8.13
8, 5.17, 112, 7.17
9, 4.98, 105, 6.72
10, 3.00, 66, 4.22
11, 1.76, 37, 2.37
12, 1.26, 26, 1.66
"Year", 3.76, 970, 62.08
Seattle is really lousy for solar - I was born there and grew up in central Oregon - like you say the east side of the mountains is good.
For the do good feeling I recommend you buy shares in a solar farm or similar - more good for the buck.
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That's a great point that I had not thought of. A 25 year warranty on a product is useless if the company disappears in five years, and if the primary reason people are selecting it is for the higher incentive they are definitely at higher risk. The incentive program is scheduled to end in 2020, though there are some efforts being made to extend that.
Solar is really only viable here with incentives in my opinion. The payback period right now is 7-8 years on a residential install in my area depending on system size. That's assuming the 36 cent incentive level. Without that I wouldn't consider it from an investment perspective.
Hydro is a large power source in this area and our cost per kWh is quite low, between 10.5 and 12 cents depending on time of day, etc. The way the incentives work you are paid for everything you produce, not just excess sent back to the grid. There are some mandates here about what percentage power suppliers need to source from renewables (not just hydro) hence the incentive programs.
There are great parts of Washington that are mostly desert where solar performs better. I'm closer to Seattle which as you know has quite a bit of cloud cover. However, the summers are mostly dry and with the higher latitude we get almost an hour and a half more length of day than, say, Los Angeles. That plus the fact our air temperature is a bit lower (which lets panels operate more efficiently) means it isn't as horrible as one might initially think.
Honestly it's part economics and part do-good for me, so I am not sure you can put a "price" on the satisfaction of doing something and knowing you are doing something cool.
Thanks for all the good feedback.Leave a comment:
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I'm with bonaire
I'm with bonaire and Russ on this one. That incentive is great if the market outside of your state uses the products produced instate. If the only reason you or presumably others are choosing Blue Frog is the WA state FIT than I don't see that company lasting very long. FITs work great when the money is flowing but as soon as times get tight its about the furst cut made see Europe, New Jersey, etc. All that being said not sure solar is financially viable in WA lot of hydro power up there? What is your current cost per kWh?Leave a comment:
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Oh - thanks. I didn't realize (maybe I read too fast) that this is a FiT type of arrangement. Now, can they reverse this payment in future years? Do they guarantee through legal contract to pay you this for all the years stated or is there language it can be reversed? Honestly, this is too much of an incentive for what wholesale electricity costs the power companies (which is about .02-.04/kWh). This is the same boat that Ontario got into with their insanely high .80+/kWh FiT. That's why people spent $100K with gouging installers to put in 10KW systems in Ontario... Have you priced-out installers or is it self-install? I hope they charge a fair price and not up-charge due to this FiT.
Most of the world's top products aren't made in Washington state, however. The number of customers to be served probably isn't large enough to make some big-players to come up and install plant resources just to make them there to help them sell more in-state.Leave a comment:
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On an industrial basis, I always prefer to not be an early adopter - let someone else take the risk. If we make a wrong choice there is the potential for the company to lose millions if not tens of millions of dollars.Leave a comment:
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Thanks russ, that's why I am asking for anyone else's feedback. To be fair it sounds like the problems with with their first generation product and they launched their second generation one this year. Seems like many solar companies have a bit of a learning curve. Speaking of being a sucker, I'd feel like a big one if I give up thousands of dollars in potential extra incentive dollars without being sure and asking around.
Thanks,
JeremyLeave a comment:
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I need to make same choice as Jeremy. Everything in his note sounds like a replay.
One company [there's only two in Bellingham] tells me Blue Frog has worked out their problems and is now safe. The other company says they got burned once, then came back a year later but had a failure on their first new array. I'm looking for hard facts from unbiased sources, since the incentives for buying local are so good.
Thanks,
Jon
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No way would I take someone's word that they were bad but now they are great - that is a real sucker story.Leave a comment:
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Inverter choice swings incentive $8k? How much are they quoting you? My two string inverters for an 8kw system was under $4k wholesale. They'd work for your size system as well and my two inverters have a combined 4 Mppt controllers.Leave a comment:
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Blue Frog Microinverters vs Enphase
Hi all,
I'm currently starting on a 7.2 kW solar system in Washington state. I will be using microinverters in our install, the question at this point is which brand. Enphase and Blue Frog are currently on the table.
I'm sure some of you are aware of how the Washington state production incentives work. The short version is that state ups the incentive if you use Washington manufactured products in your install. You earn 15 cents per kWhr on any system, 36 cents if you use WA produced panels, and 54 cents if you use both WA panels and inverters. It's actually a great incentive to get people to buy locally produced solar equipment.
One installer is heavily recommending Enphase because they have had a lot of service calls and "high failure rates" using Blue Frog microinverters. I spoke with Blue Frog directly about the matter and they admitted they had some design challenges in their first microinverters that pushed the failure rate up much higher than Enphase. They claim the new version of the microinverters actually have been performing better than Enphase in terms of failure rate.
Just from a cost perspective, the difference between the two types of inverters will result in a difference of around $8k in incentive payments. So it's difficult for me to imagine such a high failure rate that would eat away $8k in extra production payments.
I figured I would ask people's opinion here. I know people can be a little brand loyal sometimes, but I'd love to hear from anyone who has actually gone with Blue Frog and what the experience has been.
Thanks,
Jeremy
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