The value of resilience

[Mike90250]

So, looking at the total California demand for today, and the historical demand of 50GW at 1pm, and doing a eyeball guess of the 5pm - 7am nightime load

http://www.caiso.com/TodaysOutlook/Pages/default.aspx

I'm thinking 20Gwh would be required. Say half of that is met with existing plants and half is via battery or some new storage, That's 10GWh of storage needed.
http://www.caiso.com/TodaysOutlook/Pages/supply.html Currently wind is producing 1.2Gw, so only 9Gwh storage needed. Unless the next day is cloudy and the batteries are flat.....

Interesting dynamic charts, 32% of power is imported this evening.

[nwdiver]

So, looking at the total California demand for today, and the historical demand of 50TW at 1pm, and doing a eyeball guess of the 5pm - 7am nightime load

http://www.caiso.com/TodaysOutlook/Pages/default.aspx

I'm thinking 20Twh would be required. Say half of that is met with existing plants and half is via battery or some new storage, That's 10TWh of storage needed.
http://www.caiso.com/TodaysOutlook/Pages/supply.html Currently wind is producing 1.2Tw, so only 9Twh storage needed. Unless the next day is cloudy and the batteries are flat.....

Interesting dynamic charts, 32% of power is imported this evening.

50GW not 50TW. 50,000MW is 50GW. Total US electric demand is ~1TW (1,000GW).

[Mike90250]

50GW not 50TW. 50,000MW is 50GW. Total US electric demand is ~1TW (1,000GW).

I would have been fine, if earlier today, my search on Amazon for a 128gb USB drive didn't result in a dozen hits for 1TB drives. I actually called Amazon and complained about their search engine being polluted with far too many "sponsored" hits.

Yes, Gw, not Tw

[J.P.M.]

I would have been fine, if earlier today, my search on Amazon for a 128gb USB drive didn't result in a dozen hits for 1TB drives. I actually called Amazon and complained about their search engine being polluted with far too many "sponsored" hits.

Yes, Gw, not Tw

Units and confusion aside, a daily supply vs. daily demand graph of might lead one to think there's a future in research for safe, cost effective, practical, distributed and dispatchable daily energy storage capability. If I was younger, I'd think there might be an interesting job future in energy storage for me.

[nwdiver]

Units and confusion aside, a daily supply vs. daily demand graph of might lead one to think there's a future in research for safe, cost effective, practical, distributed and dispatchable daily energy storage capability. If I was younger, I'd think there might be an interesting job future in energy storage for me.

Probably more on the deployment side. Even the storage tech we had 30 years ago would probably be sufficient once we have enough solar and wind. There's this weird perception that we need storage to make solar and wind viable. It's the reverse. Without regular curtailment the value of grid level storage is extremely limited.

[J.P.M.]

Even the storage tech we had 30 years ago would probably be sufficient once we have enough solar and wind. There's this weird perception that we need storage to make solar and wind viable. It's the reverse. Without regular curtailment the value of grid level storage is extremely limited.

Using plain language if you please, what leads you to think that way ?

[nwdiver]

Using plain language if you please, what leads you to think that way ?

That you need to have surplus electricity to charge a battery before grid storage is viable?

If you want to use a battery to provide the bulk of grid services you need the thing charging the battery to be surplus (curtailed renewable energy)... otherwise you would just use the generator that charges the battery to provide those services.

Here's an analogy. Let's say you have a bakery that can bake 10 loaves of bread an hour. You can easily sell 100 loaves of bread an hour. Would you invest in a place to store bread before or after you're able to meet the demand of 100 loaves and hour? Why go though the expense of storing something when you can sell it immediately?

[Ampster]

Or perhaps based on what are perceived as facts at the time.
....

Or in many cases planning assumptions. Certainly there are flaws in the process.

On another note I never expected a quote from an article to generate so much comment. However the number of people participating resembles a cult in numbers if not religious zeal.

[nwdiver]

Or in many cases planning assumptions. Certainly there are flaws in the process.

On another note I never expected a quote from an article to generate so much comment. However the number of people participating resembles a cult in numbers if not religious zeal.

I'm just sick of BILLIONS being wasted on nuclear boondoggles and it seems like no one cares. It's like battered wife syndrome. 'I know I've assaulted you 37 times before but this time is different... I swear'. And we keep going back for more... WHY?

[Ampster]

I'm just sick of BILLIONS being wasted on nuclear boondoggles ..........

I agree. I am not sure I understand the argument that we don't need storage until we get more renewables installed. I am focused on California because that is where the recent grid capacity shortages have shown up. I do recall you saying that some of that could be managed with DER. If you mean by adjusting behavior I would also agree. Economics has made the construction of peakers less profitable compared to energy storage at least in California. Combined cycle can now ramp much quicker than the old fashioned steam plants so there is some hope that the limited capacity of batteries can make a difference.

[nwdiver]

I agree. I am not sure I understand the argument that we don't need storage until we get more renewables installed.

Where does the energy to charge the batteries come from? Why divert a GWh into a battery to reduce fools fuel use by 900MWh later when you can just reduce fools fuel use by 1GWh now? You need surplus renewable energy for storage to really make any sense. There are niche applications for grid services like peak shaving but you really need frequent renewable curtailment.

There are two sides of a battery equation. Energy goes in > Energy comes out. The situation on the grid needs to make sense on BOTH ends of that equation. Until you have frequent surpluses of wind, solar (Or nuclear) there really aren't many times when it makes economic sense to charge a battery.

[J.P.M.]

I'm just sick of BILLIONS being wasted on nuclear boondoggles and it seems like no one cares. It's like battered wife syndrome. 'I know I've assaulted you 37 times before but this time is different... I swear'. And we keep going back for more... WHY?

Spending a lot of time in a prior iteration of life as a peddler taught me a lot. One why is human nature. People see what they want to see and hear what they want to hear, with most of the perception/hopes in ways that tend to make life easier for them.
Manipulation of peoples' minds is usually a matter of tailoring the message so their perception of your message is one of benefit to them , but really to yours.

[nwdiver]

Spending a lot of time in a prior iteration of life as a peddler taught me a lot. One why is human nature. People see what they want to see and hear what they want to hear, with most of the perception/hopes in ways that tend to make life easier for them.
Manipulation of peoples' minds is usually a matter of tailoring the message so their perception of your message is one of benefit to them , but really to yours.

??? I worked in nuclear power for 15 years. I left a $100k+ job I somewhat enjoyed because it felt pointless. I would love nothing more than for nuclear power to be cost effective and productive. Sadly it's not. It's 6x more expensive than wind or solar. When I left the industry it was 4x. By 2030 it will probably be 10x more expensive .

What exactly do you think is manipulation? Stating the fact that new nuclear is 15x more per kW vs renewables? Stating that new nuclear is 6x more per kWh?

[DanS26]

I sat on the board of directors of a medium size electrical utility. We produced, transmitted and distributed electrical energy to over 600,000 retail customers and thousands of commercial and industrial customers.

It cost us ~$0.03 kWh to produce and ~$0.045 kWh to transmit to distribution units. The distribution business in turn sold the electrical energy for ~$0.105 kWh to retail customers. Pretty sweet deal for everyone.

Now along comes regulations to clean up our mess and also to make the air cleaner since over 97% of production was coal powered. Many people called it the big stinker....I just called it "the machine". Walking inside that plant at full base load operation was like walking into the belly of the beast.

As you can imagine cost of production increased.....so much so that the coal fired monster is being shut down next year.........it could not compete with gas powered combined cycle and renewables.

Low cost production wins. Coal and nuclear power are dead.....not just dead but dead, dead, dead. (at current level of technology)

But production was not our highest cost....it was transmission. And there is where we need more research. IMHO for every dollar we spend on electrical production and storage research we should spend $2 on electrical transmission research. Ultra low loss or no loss electrical transmission is the holy grail. It practically eliminates all the production and storage problems we are grappling with today. It sure would be a game changer. I hope to see it yet in my lifetime.

[J.P.M.]

That you need to have surplus electricity to charge a battery before grid storage is viable?

If you want to use a battery to provide the bulk of grid services you need the thing charging the battery to be surplus (curtailed renewable energy)... otherwise you would just use the generator that charges the battery to provide those services.

Here's an analogy. Let's say you have a bakery that can bake 10 loaves of bread an hour. You can easily sell 100 loaves of bread an hour. Would you invest in a place to store bread before or after you're able to meet the demand of 100 loaves and hour? Why go though the expense of storing something when you can sell it immediately?

I'd use a slightly different bakery allegory.
Say I own/operate a bakery, but it's rather specialized. It's one of several in the area but, like the others, it sells only one type of bread. Fortunately, most everyone is convinced they need the bread I and the other specialized bakeries produce.
I am open 24/7 and sales are 240 loaves/24 hrs. Customer traffic, and sales are fairly steady and predictable over most any 24 hr. period.
Now, say something happened a few years ago and now my customers buying patterns different such that many more folks are coming into my shop mid/late afternoon in such numbers that I run out of bread for a few hours during late afternoon/early evening- something that a lot of folks think they can't live without.
Also, say my ovens can produce 240 loaves/day at full production at the rate of 10 loaves/hr., no more per hour.. Demand is still 240 loaves/24 hrs. but with the new sales flow pattern there will be times with when I may sell out of product for a few hours late in the afternoon. What am I to do ?
Well, I have options.
I can buy bread from the other similar product producers with some but not guaranteed reliability, and at very high prices to me - which I must pass on to my now less than happy customers.
I can also get more production capacity. However, ovens are very expensive and at least some of that high priced increase in production capacity will be wasted as my product has a very short shelf life - say 8 hrs. - so after the rush is over, the ovens either shut down or produce product that will not be used/discarded.
Or, better yet, I can add an appropriately sized bread storage facility that has enough capacity to supply the excess demand over the 10 loaves/hr. of oven capacity to get through the new sales pattern of mid/late afternoon product demand/sales of a few hours.

Beyond my admittedly simple allegory, but analogous to hydroelectric power needing storage because the source of the hydro power produced is not steady or even predictable (rain), other types of power generation and in the end the grid itself can benefit from storage. The trick is to make the storage safe, practical, cost effective and probably scalable.