The value of resilience

[Ampster]

I wonder how distant volcanic eruption would compare to local wildfire smoke in terms of solar production impact. My solar production is already down from recent wildfire smoke in NorCal.

I am in the Sonoma Valley and I would guess that in the past week my production is down 5 to 10% because of the smoke. As far as worrying about Volcanic Ash it is highly unlikely to be an issue, The last major eruption of Krakatoa was almost 140 years ago and it did affect weather around the planet. I would be more worried about hurricicanes if I lived on the east coast and earthquakes in California. Mt St Helens caused phyical damage one of which was sewers clogged with ash. That would worry me more than the loss of solar production. I don't have any active volcanoes upwind of my location.

[J.P.M.]

I wonder how distant volcanic eruption would compare to local wildfire smoke in terms of solar production impact. My solar production is already down from recent wildfire smoke in NorCal.

Compared to the prior 7 years of monitoring, the average atmospheric clearness index (terrestrial ground GHI/extraterrestrial insolation in a parallel plane) for the last 31 days at my array in zip 92026 is slightly higher than average by maybe 1 % or so.
The total prior 31 day production of my array is at 101.4 % of the average of the prior 6 years production for the same period.
Just a snapshot of one small corner of CA. We haven't had much of the problems or smoke as has been seen up north. The prior 31 day ave. temp. has been ~ 0.6 C. cooler.

[Mike90250]

And in my corner of Calif, I had to run the generator 2 days, because PV production was about 1/3 of normal from both smoke and heat. Today I got caught up, below 85F and clear skies. The weekend, is going to be a nightmare of hot weather thru Monday, with threat of statewide rolling blackouts in the evening, and Tues, high winds in fire areas may start PSPS outages !

[littleharbor]

I am in the Sonoma Valley and I would guess that in the past week my production is down 5 to 10% because of the smoke. As far as worrying about Volcanic Ash it is highly unlikely to be an issue, The last major eruption of Krakatoa was almost 140 years ago and it did affect weather around the planet. I would be more worried about hurricicanes if I lived on the east coast and earthquakes in California. Mt St Helens caused phyical damage one of which was sewers clogged with ash. That would worry me more than the loss of solar production. I don't have any active volcanoes upwind of my location.

I remember back in 1991 Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines had a large eruption that caused red skies for months afterward. Not sure how much it effected PV production as I was too young and carefree to worry about that kind of stuff. I do remember the awesome sunsets every evening though.



From Wikipedia , The effects of the 1991 eruption were felt worldwide. It ejected roughly 10 billion tonnes (1.1×1010 short tons) or 10 km3 (2.4 cu mi) of magma, and 20 million tonnes (22 million short tons) of SO
2, bringing vast quantities of minerals and toxic metals to the surface environment. It injected more particulate into the stratosphere than any eruption since Krakatoa in 1883. Over the following months, the aerosols formed a global layer of sulfuric acid haze. Global temperatures dropped by about 0.5 °C (0.9 °F) in the years 1991–93,[7] and ozone depletion temporarily saw a substantial increase

[J.P.M.]

And in my corner of Calif, I had to run the generator 2 days, because PV production was about 1/3 of normal from both smoke and heat. Today I got caught up, below 85F and clear skies. The weekend, is going to be a nightmare of hot weather thru Monday, with threat of statewide rolling blackouts in the evening, and Tues, high winds in fire areas may start PSPS outages !

The next 10 days or so are shaping up to be pretty interesting for the western U.S. Your location looks close to ground zero.
Normally lite winds are picking up here in 92026 as fast as the dew point is dropping. High temps. ~ 42 - 44 C for the next couple of days and more winds for 09/09 - 09/10 w/temps. in the 32 -34 C range and dew points dropping again.
Ditty bags and cars packed to get out of Dodge in a hurry if necessary.

Fun & games in the land of fruits and nuts.

Good luck.

[Ampster]

I remember back in 1991 Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines .........

I remember the oil crisis in the early seventies and that has driven my decisions more than any volcanic eruptions. As we head for more Public Safety Power Shutdowns I remember the lines of cars last year loading up on gasoline because of their fear of no gas pumps running without electricity.

COVID certainly taught us that more Americans are concerned about running out of toilet paper than any volcanic eruption.

[SunEagle]

I remember the oil crisis in the early seventies and that has driven my decisions more than any volcanic eruptions. As we head for more Public Safety Power Shutdowns I remember the lines of cars last year loading up on gasoline because of their fear of no gas pumps running without electricity.

COVID certainly taught us that more Americans are concerned about running out of toilet paper than any volcanic eruption.

It seems the latest danger gets people to make strange decisions like hording toilet paper.

On the flip side most people I talk to or see around the country do not seem to care about too much carbon in our atmosphere based on what they drive and how they use electricity.

I am not sure if they simply are putting their heads in the sand or do not think carbon gases are causing a problem.

So either they just don't care or are immune to seeing disaster on the horizon.

[J.P.M.]

It seems the latest danger gets people to make strange decisions like hording toilet paper.

On the flip side most people I talk to or see around the country do not seem to care about too much carbon in our atmosphere based on what they drive and how they use electricity.

I am not sure if they simply are putting their heads in the sand or do not think carbon gases are causing a problem.

So either they just don't care or are immune to seeing disaster on the horizon.

Yea, what ever happened to using corncobs in the outhouse like when I was a kid on the farm ? No hoarding there. So much for adaptability I guess.

To some, all you write of and more are byproducts, results and examples of the great dumbing of America and probably the developed world.

IMO only, the sky fell about the same time as the educational system in the U.S. started going to hell, but it was so slow in happening that in our self centered, inwardly directed myopic view or the world, we missed seeing it.

Now, we may well have fallen below the critical mass of collective intelligence necessary to get out of our own way. Sow the wind, reap the whirlwind.

[scrambler]

To some, all you write of and more are byproducts, results and examples of the great dumbing of America and probably the developed world.

IMO only, the sky fell about the same time as the educational system in the U.S. started going to hell, but it was so slow in happening that in our self centered, inwardly directed myopic view or the world, we missed seeing it.

Now, we may well have fallen below the critical mass of collective intelligence necessary to get out of tour own way. Sow the wind, reap the whirlwind.

+1 to that ...

[nwdiver]

Its time to dust off nuclear energy and give it another try.

Only after we figure out how to make electricity from fission without using thermal energy as an intermediate step. That's what makes nuclear cost ~5x more per kWh and ~15x more per kW vs solar PV or wind. And that gap is widening. So long as nuclear is thermal it's a non-starter. Just like solar thermal.

[peakbagger]

Yup, Carnot rained on the the party for thermal power plants long ago.

Small Nuclear Reactors (SMRs) may be good bridge technology. They fit into a distributed energy model. It helps that they have figured out how to design natural circulation systems that dont need power to shut down the reactor. I just do not think there is an appetite out there to build another conventional nuclear power plant in the US. Plant Vogtle in Georgia may be the last since its projected to come in at double its cost and many years behind schedule. I have a relative that went down there for a one year gig several years ago and he still on the job. He may not retire there but will end up with a big piggy bank to take a few years off to decide on what he wants to do next.

[nwdiver]

Small Nuclear Reactors (SMRs) may be good bridge technology. They fit into a distributed energy model. It helps that they have figured out how to design natural circulation systems that dont need power to shut down the reactor. I just do not think there is an appetite out there to build another conventional nuclear power plant in the US. Plant Vogtle in Georgia may be the last since its projected to come in at double its cost and many years behind schedule. I have a relative that went down there for a one year gig several years ago and he still on the job. He may not retire there but will end up with a big piggy bank to take a few years off to decide on what he wants to do next.

SMRs will only work if they're not thermal. All current designs are thermal. I don't think a non-thermal nuclear design exists. The closest thing is RTGs which at least don't need to use the carnot cycle but the best ones still need to dissipate ~1w of heat for every 1w of useful electricity and they're even MORE expensive than thermal plants.

Vogtle is now >3x more than it was initially projected to be and ~4 years behind schedule. Nuclear is just outrageously uncompetitive. A kWh from a new nuclear plant now costs >5x more than a kWh from a wind turbine or solar farm. And that's including the fact that nuclear is 'always' generating. You can send $15B on 1GW of nuclear and generate 8TWh/yr OR... OR $15B on ~15GW of renewables and generate ~40TWh/yr. If you need 1GW of firm capacity then Spend $14B on renewables and $1B on a 1GW gas turbine. No matter how you slice it thermal power plants no longer make any economic sense. None.

[scrambler]

Well, I don't know about volcanos, but I am in the North bay area, and today, the sky is so dark from the ash cloud that my 6 kW solar array output is 300W at mid day !!

And I just drove down a few miles south and it is even worth, street lights are on at noon, and any solar there would be a Zero period...

[SunEagle]

Well, I don't know about volcanos, but I am in the North bay area, and today, the sky is so dark from the ash cloud that my 6 kW solar array output is 300W at mid day !!

And I just drove down a few miles south and it is even worth, street lights are on at noon, and any solar there would be a Zero period...

I feel bad for those people that are affected by the smoke and fires. It is much more likely than ash from a volcano. I just hope people are stay safe and find any way to get electrical power.

[J.P.M.]

The closest thing is RTGs which at least don't need to use the carnot cycle but the best ones still need to dissipate ~1w of heat for every 1w of useful electricity and they're even MORE expensive than thermal plants.

Maybe thermodynamics has been reinvented and I missed it, but the way I learned it, no heat engine in existence operates on the Carnot cycle.

It's a limit, not an achievable cycle.

As for RTGs, I won't hold my breath for the Seebeck effect in any of the currently known manifestations to get efficient enough to become practical for large scale terrestrial applications.