Assistance in determining size of Solar installation

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  • vnatale
    Member
    • Jun 2016
    • 60

    #1

    Assistance in determining size of Solar installation

    I am hoping to make a decision on a solar installation by the end of next week.

    Here are facts related to me.

    1) I live in Western Massachusetts. We have net metering. I get reimbursed at about 92% the rate I am charged. I can only get reimbursed to the extent of my use. Any extra will remain as a credit until used.

    Here is a history of what my variable cost per kWh has been going back many years:

    Capture.jpg

    You can readily see that contrary to what every solar company contends - that prices just keep increasing every year -- prices can remain flat or even decrease!

    Currently I am at 31.6 cents per kWh. The highest was 36.6 cents per kWh.

    That is what we pay no matter the time of day or how many kWh we use in a month. The same per kWh rate.

    2) Here is my history of average kWh use per day. You can see that I've been on a downward trend. Right now I'm at the absolutely rock bottom minimum I could use. A lot of scrimping in many areas.

    Capture.jpg
    3) I need to determine what I will be using in the future so as to properly size a system.

    I have an Emporia monitoring system which I have been using since January 2021. It tells me what amount of electricity is being used by each of the circuits in my electrical panel.

    I had three mini-splits installed on 12/30/22. Here are the usage records in kWh per month on each circuit from January 2023 to August 2024.

    Capture.jpg

    4) Now the task is to take the above and to forecast what I will be using.

    I've been a scrimper in many areas of my life. Part of my motivation for going solar is to make a one time payment for the system and then any electricity I use will be "free" as opposed to having to pay the electric company for any electricity that I use. I would then no longer scrimp on my electricity use but would, instead, use it with no heed to costs.

    These are all the changes that I'd make.

    a. Raise water heater temperature from 110 to 120.

    b. Living Room - Use electronics (TV / sound system) in it for more hours.

    c. Dehumidifier - Lower its humidity level from 75% to 55%.

    d. Bedroom - Some increased usage

    e. Living Room Mini-Split - Rather than having the 18,000 BTU unit at the minimum 61 degrees, put it at 70. Also, start using it for air conditioning.

    f. When current 2004 Honda Accord with 169,000 miles on it becomes uneconomical to keep it going (estimated time sometime in the next 2 to 4 years) replace it with a new EV. From brief investigation if I were to buy one today the Hyundai Ioniq seems to represent the best value based upon its rating and cost. I only drive 4,000 miles a year and it seem it would require about 1,500 kWh to run those 4,000 miles.

    g. Bedroom Mini-Split - Raise its heating temperature from 65 to 72 and start using the air conditioning on it.

    h. Range - Its' been unplugged for years. I may start using it again.

    I made some guesses / estimates for what current monthly usage would be based upon all the above. It leads to an about 80% increase over what I used in 2023.

    Here it is:

    Capture.jpg

    All the above is my attempt to size my solar installation so that I will always have enough on an annual basis to cover my needs. I don't mind having an excess. i don't want to not have enough.

    Some common electrical devices most people have that I do not is a dryer and a dish washer. I have lived quite fine without either and don't anticipate getting either. I wash dishes every other day and it takes about 3 gallons of water. I infrequently do laundry and am fine with either hanging it outside or in my living room.

    What suggestions do you have based upon my usage for any changes in my projected uses??!!
  • Mike 134
    Solar Fanatic
    • Jan 2022
    • 423

    #2
    Use this calculator to see what solar generation you can expect from your location, roof tilt, etc. It will tell you what you can expect your yearly average to be.

    PVWatts Calculator (nrel.gov)

    Comment

    • vnatale
      Member
      • Jun 2016
      • 60

      #3
      Originally posted by Mike 134
      Use this calculator to see what solar generation you can expect from your location, roof tilt, etc. It will tell you what you can expect your yearly average to be.

      PVWatts Calculator (nrel.gov)
      That will give my theoretical productions. My question revolves around how much I will need to have produced to cover my needs.

      Comment

      • Mike 134
        Solar Fanatic
        • Jan 2022
        • 423

        #4
        Originally posted by vnatale

        That will give my theoretical productions. My question revolves around how much I will need to have produced to cover my needs.
        Your needs are listed in your spreadsheets. You have your annual usage since 1998, the PVwatts is very accurate over 10 years what you'll produce. As to future needs only you can answer that.

        Comment

        • vnatale
          Member
          • Jun 2016
          • 60

          #5
          I'm making wild guesses as to what future needs will be based upon future increases. I have no experience with this. Therefore looking for input from those who have both more experience and expertise than I do with this.

          I am going to have to trust what the solar vendors are telling me the outputs I will get from various configurations of a ground mount facing south.

          Comment

          • Mike 134
            Solar Fanatic
            • Jan 2022
            • 423

            #6
            If they are reputable, they will plug in type, wattage, number of panels, tilt, and compass direction into https://pvwatts.nrel.gov/ and give you the annual expected output.

            Comment

            • vnatale
              Member
              • Jun 2016
              • 60

              #7
              Originally posted by Mike 134
              If they are reputable, they will plug in type, wattage, number of panels, tilt, and compass direction into https://pvwatts.nrel.gov/ and give you the annual expected output.
              I just put into pvwatts the details of the 12 quotes I've received from 7 vendors.

              In every case pvwatts predicted more input than what any of those quotes cited.

              The range of increase for pvwatts over their quotes ranged from 13% to 25%.

              Two of them were actually on my property and measured the degree of shading I'd get in the morning from trees on the southeast of my property. I don't know if those who just went by satellite images took that into account.

              Here are the inputs I was using:

              Capture.jpg

              This is crucial as I need to know what my input will be from each system so as to buy the right size system.

              I will now be asking certain of the vendors (the ones I'm still considering) why the difference between what they've given me and what I've come up with pvwatts.

              Comment

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