It is tricky to predict the result without more detailed information, but if your usage is really 150 kWh/month (5 kWh/day) you are using very little for on-grid and should be congratulated. And yes, a nominal 3kw system will probably produce more than 5 kWh on most days even in winter. With little power use during the day, getting lots of credits at the peak or near peak rate will usually be your best bet.
But since you will not get anything back if you have a net production balance at the end of your one year cycle, it may not make a lot of difference.
For someone with heavy winter electric heating bills or other loads that will put you into a higher rate tier at least some of the time, the TOU system will usually pay you more for the electricity you net back to PG&E during the day, especially in summer, than you pay to get the power back at night. The effect of that will be that your summer production will build up a larger account balance to carry you through the winter than you would get with the E-1 rate.
But since you will not get anything back if you have a net production balance at the end of your one year cycle, it may not make a lot of difference.
For someone with heavy winter electric heating bills or other loads that will put you into a higher rate tier at least some of the time, the TOU system will usually pay you more for the electricity you net back to PG&E during the day, especially in summer, than you pay to get the power back at night. The effect of that will be that your summer production will build up a larger account balance to carry you through the winter than you would get with the E-1 rate.
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