another newbie looking for beginner solar advice

[bradley_mo]

Hello! I am just embarking on this journey and getting quotes for my home. I live in the San Francisco Bay Area. My monthly usage through PG&E is in the mid-high 600 kWh range. When I can afford it, I'd love to get an electric car (and maybe a hot tub for my wife . I have good exposure (no shade), south-facing, slanted roof.

I received the following quotes:

1) Sungevity: 6.6 kW, 22 LG panels, string inverter (does it matter which?), $24,024 (my math shows $3.64/kWh).
2) Skytech: 6.24 kw, 24 Canadian Solar panels, Solaredge inverter, $21,840 (my math shows $3.5/kWh)

So far, the sales reps have been steering me away from micro inverters in light of the above information. I've received discrepant information re the importance of the panels themselves (last rep said "they're all more or less the same.")

Thanks in advance for any advice, and for dumbing this down for me.

-Brad

[J.P.M.]

Hello! I am just embarking on this journey and getting quotes for my home. I live in the San Francisco Bay Area. My monthly usage through PG&E is in the mid-high 600 kWh range. When I can afford it, I'd love to get an electric car (and maybe a hot tub for my wife . I have good exposure (no shade), south-facing, slanted roof.

I received the following quotes:

1) Sungevity: 6.6 kW, 22 LG panels, string inverter (does it matter which?), $24,024 (my math shows $3.64/kWh).
2) Skytech: 6.24 kw, 24 Canadian Solar panels, Solaredge inverter, $21,840 (my math shows $3.5/kWh)

So far, the sales reps have been steering me away from micro inverters in light of the above information. I've received discrepant information re the importance of the panels themselves (last rep said "they're all more or less the same.")

Thanks in advance for any advice, and for dumbing this down for me.

-Brad

A 6kW system in a decent orientation as you write of with no shade should net you in excess of 9,000 kWh/yr., depending on how close you are to the coast/fog or local conditions. If your current usage is about 7,000 to 8,000 kWh/yr. a system as large as being quoted will be oversized and cost ineffective for those current needs.

However, if you are fairly certain of the EV,you ought to be about on target, if a bit larger than optimally cost effective. I just hope you're not planning on keeping a hot tub warm with resistance electrically heated H2O. That'll add about something like 1,200 to 1,500 kWh/yr. to the usage plus some pumping energy.

I'd run PVWatts to confirm the sizing, make as certain as possible about future plans and timing of the EV, and get familiar with various pricing schemes from PG & E or whoever your POCO is. Sometimes/often, depending on usage patterns, a plan change to T.O.U., etc, can allow a smaller system size to a offset an equal $$ amount of a bill. Takes a bit of homework but can pay dividends.

Welcome to the neighborhood.

The pricing you're getting seems in the ballpark, although a few Bay area posters seem to be doing a bit better @ a claimed $3.30/Watt or so. Stick with a string inverter

[bradley_mo]

A 6kW system in a decent orientation as you write of with no shade should net you in excess of 9,000 kWh/yr., depending on how close you are to the coast/fog or local conditions. If your current usage is about 7,000 to 8,000 kWh/yr. a system as large as being quoted will be oversized and cost ineffective for those current needs.

However, if you are fairly certain of the EV,you ought to be about on target, if a bit larger than optimally cost effective. I just hope you're not planning on keeping a hot tub warm with resistance electrically heated H2O. That'll add about something like 1,200 to 1,500 kWh/yr. to the usage plus some pumping energy.

I'd run PVWatts to confirm the sizing, make as certain as possible about future plans and timing of the EV, and get familiar with various pricing schemes from PG & E or whoever your POCO is. Sometimes/often, depending on usage patterns, a plan change to T.O.U., etc, can allow a smaller system size to a offset an equal $$ amount of a bill. Takes a bit of homework but can pay dividends.

Welcome to the neighborhood.

The pricing you're getting seems in the ballpark, although a few Bay area posters seem to be doing a bit better @ a claimed $3.30/Watt or so. Stick with a string inverter

J.P.M. - Thank you!! I truly appreciate that you have taken the time to share such a thoughtful response. I am nowhere near certain re EV purchase/timing and I'm also in the pre-contemplative stage of a hot tub and hadn't thought about the different ways it could be heated (thanks for the heads up re electrical resistance heating - indeed, the plan was to hold off until i had solar as i was afraid of the electric bill). You've provided an excellent framework with which to approach this.

So to verify my thinking here, I should aim for:

~9000 kWh/year
string inverter (does the brand matter?)
do the panels matter?
aim for close to $3.30/Watt

Anything else I should know??

Appreciatively,
Brad

[J.P.M.]

J.P.M. - Thank you!! I truly appreciate that you have taken the time to share such a thoughtful response. I am nowhere near certain re EV purchase/timing and I'm also in the pre-contemplative stage of a hot tub and hadn't thought about the different ways it could be heated (thanks for the heads up re electrical resistance heating - indeed, the plan was to hold off until i had solar as i was afraid of the electric bill). You've provided an excellent framework with which to approach this.

So to verify my thinking here, I should aim for:

~9000 kWh/year
string inverter (does the brand matter?)
do the panels matter?
aim for close to $3.30/Watt

Anything else I should know??

Appreciatively,
Brad

You're welcome.

Since you ask: For starters, question everything everyone says or writes, including me. None of us is as smart as all of us, but there are a lot of solar ignorant folks masquerading as knowledgeable. And, remember, not everyone who tells you what you want to hear is your friend. Not everyone who tells you ugly stuff is your enemy. Caveat Emptor.

On what to know: Download "Solar Power Your Home for Dummies" Free on the net, or buy revised version for about $25 or so.

- Solar - particularly residential solar PV - is not rocket science, but it is usually something of a major investment. Do the homework, including how you're charged for electricity and how that's changing just now and in the near to mid term.
- Download and run PVWatts and make a couple of runs after you read the help/info screens a couple of times. After 20 min. or so and a few runs, you'll have another very useful tool.
- Get more quotes after the book and PVWatts. Reading the book and running PVWatts will give you more knowledge than most of the peddlers you'll talk to. You'll also know what questions to ask, and more fun yet, know the answers before you ask the questions - an education in itself when it comes to dealing with vendors, and a real aid in vendor selection.
- Choose your vendor with as much care as your equipment. A good vendor with a long track record (say 10+years) as an electrical contractor who's also sold solar for at least 5 years is worth a slight, but fairly negotiated premium.
- Provided you don't have anything weird or special stuff like needing a new electrical panel, or building issues, paying much more than $3.50/Watt, even to a good vendor is probably leaving some $$'s on the table.
- Unless you have $0 tax liability, leasing is a sucker bet. Also, pay your money, take your choice, but know if you buy Sunpower equipment - great stuff - you'll pay about 20% more up front to get the same annual output and performance using other quality equipment. Solar equipment is a commodity - not a lifestyle.
- Get your roof inspected/serviced as necessary. Cheap insurance. Think ahead. Solar can last a long time. Give the roof under any array the highest probability possible of lasting as long as the PV. If it's an old(er) roof, and tile for example, consider new paper under the tile.
- As of now, the 30% fed. ITC is good on systems installed prior to 12/31/2016. It's probably too late to get a system up by 12/31/2015, but know that there may well be some scrambling as the expiration deadline for the ICC gets closer. I'd still be deliberate, but not rushed or stampeded by a desperation laden sales pitch that implies you must buy "NOW" to beat the rush.

Good luck.

Take what you want of the above. Scrap the rest.

[bradley_mo]

You're welcome.

Since you ask: For starters, question everything everyone says or writes, including me. None of us is as smart as all of us, but there are a lot of solar ignorant folks masquerading as knowledgeable. And, remember, not everyone who tells you what you want to hear is your friend. Not everyone who tells you ugly stuff is your enemy. Caveat Emptor.

On what to know: Download "Solar Power Your Home for Dummies" Free on the net, or buy revised version for about $25 or so.

- Solar - particularly residential solar PV - is not rocket science, but it is usually something of a major investment. Do the homework, including how you're charged for electricity and how that's changing just now and in the near to mid term.
- Download and run PVWatts and make a couple of runs after you read the help/info screens a couple of times. After 20 min. or so and a few runs, you'll have another very useful tool.
- Get more quotes after the book and PVWatts. Reading the book and running PVWatts will give you more knowledge than most of the peddlers you'll talk to. You'll also know what questions to ask, and more fun yet, know the answers before you ask the questions - an education in itself when it comes to dealing with vendors, and a real aid in vendor selection.
- Choose your vendor with as much care as your equipment. A good vendor with a long track record (say 10+years) as an electrical contractor who's also sold solar for at least 5 years is worth a slight, but fairly negotiated premium.
- Provided you don't have anything weird or special stuff like needing a new electrical panel, or building issues, paying much more than $3.50/Watt, even to a good vendor is probably leaving some $$'s on the table.
- Unless you have $0 tax liability, leasing is a sucker bet. Also, pay your money, take your choice, but know if you buy Sunpower equipment - great stuff - you'll pay about 20% more up front to get the same annual output and performance using other quality equipment. Solar equipment is a commodity - not a lifestyle.
- Get your roof inspected/serviced as necessary. Cheap insurance. Think ahead. Solar can last a long time. Give the roof under any array the highest probability possible of lasting as long as the PV. If it's an old(er) roof, and tile for example, consider new paper under the tile.
- As of now, the 30% fed. ITC is good on systems installed prior to 12/31/2016. It's probably too late to get a system up by 12/31/2015, but know that there may well be some scrambling as the expiration deadline for the ICC gets closer. I'd still be deliberate, but not rushed or stampeded by a desperation laden sales pitch that implies you must buy "NOW" to beat the rush.

Good luck.

Take what you want of the above. Scrap the rest.

Thanks again! Whether you like it or not, I trust what you've told me. FYI - The only time pressure I'm feeling is that I understand PG&E will soon be changing their net metering policies, and folks can get grandfathered into the current structure. Anyway, I sincerely appreciate all of your assistance. Wish I could return the favor. -Brad

[J.P.M.]

Thanks again! Whether you like it or not, I trust what you've told me. FYI - The only time pressure I'm feeling is that I understand PG&E will soon be changing their net metering policies, and folks can get grandfathered into the current structure. Anyway, I sincerely appreciate all of your assistance. Wish I could return the favor. -Brad

Makes no diff. to me who you believe - just question everything, get informed and then trust but verify. Check out the net metering/5 % cap and how close it is to being filled. After that, you'll be stuck with a probably not as good NEM arrangement. How close your POCO is to the 5 % cap is public information. In CA, net metering and POCO rates are both in flux just now. Don't panic, but get informed. Knowledge is power and ignorance is not bliss for long.

[bradley_mo]

Makes no diff. to me who you believe - just question everything, get informed and then trust but verify. Check out the net metering/5 % cap and how close it is to being filled. After that, you'll be stuck with a probably not as good NEM arrangement. How close your POCO is to the 5 % cap is public information. In CA, net metering and POCO rates are both in flux just now. Don't panic, but get informed. Knowledge is power and ignorance is not bliss for long.

sensei - if you have a moment - one more question (perhaps). i'll be downloading the info you recommended.

sungevity just dropped their bid to $3.21/W for a 22 panel LG 300 system with SolarEdge optimizers. while they quote the 6.6kW, seems like with sloping, fog, etc. it will be more like 6 kW. i have read some concerning reviews about sungevity, but also some glowing ones. does this sound fishy to you? they offer a 20-year warranty on the panels, although i understand that most recommend 25-year warranty.

after sharing the sungevity bid, i just received the following from 2 local, highly regarded companies:

1) "I can tell you that I won’t be very close to that number. My minimum is $3.90/W for a system that size. I’ve never seen Sungevity price that low. It’s a good deal, even though I’m not a fan of how they do business. They subcontract everything and SolarEdge inverters with optimizers are not as efficient as the Enphase micro-inverters I use. Also, I use SolarWorld panels, which have been American-made for 40 years. LG is Korean, but a decent brand, though I’ve never used them."

2) "Really appreciate the heads up - It's very helpful to know that kind of information at the start. I'll be totally upfront with you as well, which might save us both some time. There is no way we can compete with Sungevity on price - Their offering is inherently different than ours. Beyond the difference in equipment quality, efficiency, and warranty, we never outsource any installation work. Sungevity outsources all of their work. Plus, this particular pricing is abnormally low... I can tell you right now that we won't be within $1.50/watt of that pricing. If that is a deal breaker, perhaps we should hold off on the site visit for now. To be honest, if they are willing to honor that pricing once their engineers have visited the site in person, then you have found one of the best deals I've heard of. Regularly, however, (this happened again last week), Sungevity will back out of a contract once their engineers visit the site in person. Not saying that this will happen here, but I would not be surprised."

any thoughts about sungevity's bid, or #1 or #2's comments?

thanks again!

-Brad

[J.P.M.]

Could be sour grapes claims and still have some truth in them.

Sungevity does use subcontractors. Not an endorsement, but the reality is so do most retail outfits - Big Box, etc.for most home improvements - and all probably to mostly the lowest bidder.

As a matter of fact, my installer has taken subcontracting work from Sungevity as fill in work. I chose and used them directly from what I consider the pick of the vendor litter. Still, it's not the most comfort instilling business model if you're the end user and know your installer will probably be the lowest bid your vendor got.

A good example of the reasons for all the stuff you read here like trust but verify, a deal too good to be true probably is, terrible to pay too much, worse to pay too little, buy cheap, buy twice, etc.

Follow the money.

Also, another reason to get informed, read, learn and use the knowledge to know what the counter claims are saying so as to be able to understand and verify what you are hearing.

On the other hand, unless there's down and out, obvious fraud and deception with a verifiable pattern to it, bad mouthing a competitor is a low class way to do business, especially when that vendor doing the bad mouthing has price that's pretty high to begin with. For all anyone knows, that could be a selling tactic by some vendors: use a potential customer's ignorance to instill fear and uncertainty in their opinion of your competition to garner a higher price for your product.

As I've suggested, a SLIGHT premium to a reputable, quality vendor is probably worth it.

FWIW, I've seen lousy vendors badmouth good ones and vendors who can do good work be critical of the lousy vendors. I'm not sure doing business with a vendor who did otherwise good work but was unverifiably critical of another vendor's work is something I feel comfortable doing.


P.S: respectfully suggest you reread the 1st sentence of post # 6.

[bradley_mo]

Could be sour grapes claims and still have some truth in them.

Sungevity does use subcontractors. Not an endorsement, but the reality is so do most retail outfits - Big Box, etc.for most home improvements - and all probably to mostly the lowest bidder.

As a matter of fact, my installer has taken subcontracting work from Sungevity as fill in work. I chose and used them directly from what I consider the pick of the vendor litter. Still, it's not the most comfort instilling business model if you're the end user and know your installer will probably be the lowest bid your vendor got.

A good example of the reasons for all the stuff you read here like trust but verify, a deal too good to be true probably is, terrible to pay too much, worse to pay too little, buy cheap, buy twice, etc.

Follow the money.

Also, another reason to get informed, read, learn and use the knowledge to know what the counter claims are saying so as to be able to understand and verify what you are hearing.

On the other hand, unless there's down and out, obvious fraud and deception with a verifiable pattern to it, bad mouthing a competitor is a low class way to do business, especially when that vendor doing the bad mouthing has price that's pretty high to begin with. For all anyone knows, that could be a selling tactic by some vendors: use a potential customer's ignorance to instill fear and uncertainty in their opinion of your competition to garner a higher price for your product.

As I've suggested, a SLIGHT premium to a reputable, quality vendor is probably worth it.

FWIW, I've seen lousy vendors badmouth good ones and vendors who can do good work be critical of the lousy vendors. I'm not sure doing business with a vendor who did otherwise good work but was unverifiably critical of another vendor's work is something I feel comfortable doing.


P.S: respectfully suggest you reread the 1st sentence of post # 6.

Thank you! Getting 2 more bids prior to signing the blood oath. I truly appreciate your time and advice. I'm actually a teacher of clinical medicine and repeat the 1st sentence of post #6 to the trainees on a weekly basis.

[J.P.M.]

Thank you! Getting 2 more bids prior to signing the blood oath. I truly appreciate your time and advice. I'm actually a teacher of clinical medicine and repeat the 1st sentence of post #6 to the trainees on a weekly basis.

You're welcome. And my sympathies. My wife had a similar profession to yours prior to her retirement.

[bradley_mo]

You're welcome. And my sympathies. My wife had a similar profession to yours prior to her retirement.

Ha! I'll share your sympathies with my wife .

FYI:

Bid #1: Less reputable, "big box" company, 6.6 kW LG 300 system with power optimizers, $3.21/W.
Bid #2: Very reputable "high end" company, 6.213 kW SunPower 327 solar system , SMA America SB 6000TL inverter, $5.09/W.

Based on another response of yours to an LG vs SunPower posting, I suspect without saying it you'd hint that the latter is not worth the price hike.

[J.P.M.]

Ha! I'll share your sympathies with my wife .

FYI:

Bid #1: Less reputable, "big box" company, 6.6 kW LG 300 system with power optimizers, $3.21/W.
Bid #2: Very reputable "high end" company, 6.213 kW SunPower 327 solar system , SMA America SB 6000TL inverter, $5.09/W.

Based on another response of yours to an LG vs SunPower posting, I suspect without saying it you'd hint that the latter is not worth the price hike.

Since you seem to be asking:

You probably saw one of several hundred (it seems) of my rants about the cost ineffectiveness of S.P. IMO, not worth the price hike unless you want the equivalent of buying a Mercedes to use as a utility vehicle to haul groceries.

Solar's a commodity, not a lifestyle.

To top it off, and not an endorsement of S.P., but if what some on this forum claim is true, and from my own certain knowledge, some snooping around will probably get you the S.P. system for $4.50/Watt or less.

$5.09/Watt adds insult to injury.

One more time: Any quality system, S.P. or others, installed by a quality vendor, in the same location, orientation and service, will, in all likelihood, produce about equal annual output for as long as you are likely to own it. The alleged S.P. "superior", "bumber to bumber" warranty and spec sheeted lower annual degradation, depending on how long a time frame you're looking at and current and estimated future utility rates, may warrant a slight premium for S.P. over others. I peg that premium at ~ 5% or so for a 12 yr. time frame and CA POCO current and guessed at future rate increases, using something called the "Levelized Cost of Energy" (LOCE) analysis for the comparison. Opinions on that worth vary some, but 20% or more premium is, IMO, unjustifiable by any reasonable set of #'s. $3.22 to $5.09 borders on ludicrous.

Check PVOutput on the web and compare nearby systems. When adjusted for tilt and azimuth there's not a lot of difference in output among systems, usually very little.

AND/OR, Run PVWatts for a system using "Standard " then "Premium" modules. Note the difference in output and decide if its worth a 20-25% upfront premium, especially when you consider that estimated difference can be easily made up with a minimum conservation effort.

Bottom line, if it was me, I'd find an established, licensed electrical contractor who's been in business at least 10 years and sold solar for at least 5 years. Buy something of quality from a quality vendor and make it non S.P. The vendor will have a reputation, experience and will have something to stay in business with if/when/after the ITC goes in the toilet, perhaps taking the residential solar PV market with it.

A slight, but fairly negotiated premium to a quality vendor is worth it. If you cheap out and go low buck, in a few years you won't remember the low price as much as the constant albatross of poor quality. I'd be after most bang for the buck, not necessarily low buck. The hardest part is often vendor selection and then the fear mongering of second guessing and buyer's remorse. Due diligence, homework, good negotiating and a quality vendor can help minimize/lower those imposters' effects.

[imafan]

As I've suggested, a SLIGHT premium to a reputable, quality vendor is probably worth it.

What would it be in your opinion? $.20/w? my sungevity quote is $.20 from the next decent-but-few rating installer, and $.30/w from the consistent 5* installers

[J.P.M.]

What would it be in your opinion? $.20/w? my sungevity quote is $.20 from the next decent-but-few rating installer, and $.30/w from the consistent 5* installers

If you are asking me, and, if so, since I give little to no veracity to all that web based rating garbage, I cannot answer your question as asked.

However, looked at from a different perspective, and IMO only, most of that crap from places like Angie's List, Yelp, etc., is little more than perhaps bogus and in any case, unvetted and unverifiable nonsense by, say, someone's otherwise unemployable brother-in-law, or from perhaps sincere but clueless solar ignorant sheeple who are mostly clueless as to what they bought, but liked the sales slug because they heard what they wanted to hear.

I've got close to 80 examples of such (non)wisdom in my HOA. I've even seen a couple such reviews from folks who, IMO got a royal screwing (apparently happily it seems, from the review they wrote). Who knows - might have been for a referral fee. But, NOMB, and not my life/house/money/etc.

If I was you (and obviously I'm not), after all the time and due diligence I'd (hopefully) spent on research into vendors using the boots on the ground method (and vendor interviewing), and learning more about what I was considering spending a lot of $$ on, I'd look at the big picture, trust my gut and take my best shot at where and how I believe I had the best and highest probability of getting the most bang for my long term buck, and not worry quite so much about a few cents per Watt of initial cost based on what amounts to hearsay and mostly ignorant opinion from very questionable sources.

Take what you want of the above. Scrap the rest.

[bradley_mo]

Since you seem to be asking:

You probably saw one of several hundred (it seems) of my rants about the cost ineffectiveness of S.P. IMO, not worth the price hike unless you want the equivalent of buying a Mercedes to use as a utility vehicle to haul groceries.

Solar's a commodity, not a lifestyle.

To top it off, and not an endorsement of S.P., but if what some on this forum claim is true, and from my own certain knowledge, some snooping around will probably get you the S.P. system for $4.50/Watt or less.

$5.09/Watt adds insult to injury.

One more time: Any quality system, S.P. or others, installed by a quality vendor, in the same location, orientation and service, will, in all likelihood, produce about equal annual output for as long as you are likely to own it. The alleged S.P. "superior", "bumber to bumber" warranty and spec sheeted lower annual degradation, depending on how long a time frame you're looking at and current and estimated future utility rates, may warrant a slight premium for S.P. over others. I peg that premium at ~ 5% or so for a 12 yr. time frame and CA POCO current and guessed at future rate increases, using something called the "Levelized Cost of Energy" (LOCE) analysis for the comparison. Opinions on that worth vary some, but 20% or more premium is, IMO, unjustifiable by any reasonable set of #'s. $3.22 to $5.09 borders on ludicrous.

Check PVOutput on the web and compare nearby systems. When adjusted for tilt and azimuth there's not a lot of difference in output among systems, usually very little.

AND/OR, Run PVWatts for a system using "Standard " then "Premium" modules. Note the difference in output and decide if its worth a 20-25% upfront premium, especially when you consider that estimated difference can be easily made up with a minimum conservation effort.

Bottom line, if it was me, I'd find an established, licensed electrical contractor who's been in business at least 10 years and sold solar for at least 5 years. Buy something of quality from a quality vendor and make it non S.P. The vendor will have a reputation, experience and will have something to stay in business with if/when/after the ITC goes in the toilet, perhaps taking the residential solar PV market with it.

A slight, but fairly negotiated premium to a quality vendor is worth it. If you cheap out and go low buck, in a few years you won't remember the low price as much as the constant albatross of poor quality. I'd be after most bang for the buck, not necessarily low buck. The hardest part is often vendor selection and then the fear mongering of second guessing and buyer's remorse. Due diligence, homework, good negotiating and a quality vendor can help minimize/lower those imposters' effects.

I've enjoyed reading your sentiments on Yelp, Angie's List, etc. and totally agree. In that vein...

1) When you recommend a "high quality vendor," what do you use to determine a vendor's quality (apart from how long they've been in the business)? I'm close to signing on with Sungevity - 300 LG panels with ABB string inverter - and my only pause is my reservation about what I've read from Yelp about the company (mostly related to working through subcontractors).

2) I appreciate the need for self-education - although with work/life/family/etc it's hard to find the time (hence my use of this forum). Are there certain basics that you think every buyer should know? The 2 vendors I have worked with have both recommended approximately the same size system and string inverters based on my absence of shading. A 3rd bid is pending and I'll compare with the 1st 2.

3) Bonus question: any opinion re ABB string inverter vs. SolarEdge with power optimizers in the absence of shading?

*I will take what I want from your response and scrap the rest.*